2019 MLB Prospect Report: Baltimore Orioles

On the precipice of a playoff run a few years ago to 115 loses in 2018. What a fall. They had talent on the major league roster and have dealt what they could to help bolster their farm system, but it hasn’t quite worked out just yet. There are intriguing guys in the system and they did get a few top-100 prospects from trading the pieces they had, which is better than some teams can say, but mainly the downfall has been previous draft mistakes and a lot of injuries knocking down the trajectory of their previous high-end picks. Overall, they are in the bottom quarter of teams but with a new GM at the helm, the former assistant GM in Houston, the new leadership should help right the ship with better draft strategies.

Minor League Affiliates

Rankings

Top-100 Prospects – 3

Organization Rank – 24th

Divisional Rank – 4^th

Top Prospects in the System

1. Yusniel Diaz (OF) – Diaz has been in pro ball since 2016 and has already played 128 games at Double-A between two seasons and two different organizations. That’s a fast riser in any system, and there’s good reason for that fast rise…he’s very talented. Toolsy is the name of the game for Diaz as every one of the five tools grades at average or above with three being close to plus in Hit, Run, and Field. Over the time at Double-A (Tulsa and Bowie), the 22-year-old outfielder has amassed a .296/.391/.459 slash line with 14 home runs, 74 runs, 58 RBI, and 14 steals and .350 BABIP and .384 wOBA. Quite a healthy stat line he’s got eh? Despite the stat line, there are some things for him to work on though. He tends to have a flat swing that can get long at times, he tends to be a bit pull happy (43.5-percent in those 128 games), the ground ball rate (40.5-percent) is a bit high, and his baserunning needs to improve given his 28 SB to 35 CS rate in his career (14:18 at Double-A). All of those things are fixable, a better launch angle shortens the swing and increase the power and lowers the GB% and learning to be more attentive to his jumps and pitcher’s tells on the base paths will help his baserunning. All-in-all though he looks like the next starting center or right fielder for the O’s and one that’s in the mold of Adam Jones with not quite as much power but more patience at the dish and a higher average. And just for fun, here’s a video of what he did in the 2018 Future’s Game.

ETA: 2020

2. Ryan Mountcastle (3B) – Mountcastle is a name that O’s fans have known for a few years now following his first-round selection in the 2015 draft. However, few outside of the DMV (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia) area know much about him. At 6’3” and 195 lbs., he’s a fairly lanky infielder who has spent time at both shortstop and third base but currently profiles as a bat-first type guy with still developing defense and a below-average arm. The 2018 season saw the 21-year-old slash .297/.341/.464 with 13 home runs, 63 runs, 59 RBI and two steals in 394 at bats in 102 games at Double-A Bowie. His best overall offensive year though came in 2017 while splitting time between High-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie with a slash of .287/.312/.490 and 18 homers, 81 runs, 62 RBI, and eight steals though that wasn’t without issue either. Mountcastle posted a career-low in BB-percentage at just 3.2 and a career-high in pull-percentage at 45.8 and the 39-game stretch at Double-A produced just a 58 wRC+. None of that is good and neither is the defense he provides with 21 errors in 2016, 19 in 2017, and 16 in 2018 in just 81 games in the field last year. So, all told he’s got nice raw power and a decent hit tool but that’s it and his defense may limit him to first base or even DH in the major league level.

ETA: 2020

3. DL Hall (LHP) – The biggest issue the Orioles have had recently is the lack of homegrown top pitching prospects that can stay healthy. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are similar in their philosophies of drafting high school arms, it just hasn’t panned out for the Orioles with Hunter Harvey , Dylan Bundy , and Kevin Gausman just not being the top-three pitchers in the rotation they’d hoped for. That’s not the case with Hall to this point. The southpaw was taken 21^st overall in the 2017 draft out of the Georgia High School ranks and so far in his career he’s pitched a combined 104.2 innings between Rookie ball in the Gulf Coast League and Class-A in the South Atlantic League in 25 starts (27 appearances) with a 2.58 ERA (3.85 FIP, 3.93 xFIP) and a 9.6 K/9 rate. From the left side of the rubber the ¾ arm slot produces good run on the fastball that sits 92-95 and it also generates a great spin rate on the curveball, both of which grade out as plus-pitches already. The changeup is still a work in progress but Hall has great feel for the pitch and it should develop into an above-average offering when all is said and done. There is a long way to go in his development but the 6’2” lefty has all the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter in a few years.

ETA: 2021

4. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) – The trend of drafted starting pitchers working out for the O’s may be coming to an end when you add Grayson Rodriguez into the picture, though it is still extremely early in his pro career. Like really…really…early. He was taken in the first round of the 2018 out of the Texas prep ranks at the 11^th spot and would have gone sooner if there wasn’t questions about his signability with a Texas A&M commitment in tow. The big righty, 6’4” and 230 lbs., has a four-pitch mix that changes speeds well and has nice deception between the mid-90s running fastball, the mid-80s slider, upper-70s hammer curve, and a developing changeup. Rodriguez utilizes a high-three-quarter arm slot to generate most of the movement in the pitches and early in his career it is working to the tune of a 1.40 ERA and 9.31 K/9 rate in the 19.1 pro innings he’s been on the mound for. Clearly, with a guy in Rookie ball, there is a long road left to the big leagues for the young right-hander but he has the makings of being a top-of-the-rotation starter just like the guy listed directly above him in this list.

ETA: 2022

5. Ryan McKenna (OF) – McKenna was a fourth-round pick in the 2015 and since then has been stepping his way through the O’s system one stop at a time. In 2017 he played the full season at Class-A Delmarva while slashing .256/.331/.380 with seven home runs, 62 runs, 42 RBI, and 20 steals with 33 doubles and two triples. He backed that season up with a two-level campaign in 2018 split between High-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie while slashing .314/.410/.457 with 11 homers, 95 runs, 53 RBI, and nine steals in 127 games. The 11 homers are a career-high and the nine steals is a career-low all while decreasing the K-rate to 18.4-percent down from 24.2 in 2017 and increasing the BB-rate to 11.9-percent up from 8.1 in 2017. While that may show his approach at the plate is changing, the grades on his tools aren’t and at 5’11” and 185 lbs., it’s hard to imagine his size allows him to become even an average power hitter. The main tool in his in his is the 70-grade speed, which he’s used to produce two seasons at 17-plus steals and in fact his swing and setup at the plate leaves something to be desired with a wide stance, a lack of leg kick, and trouble getting to inside pitches without falling forward a bit. A speedy, defensive, average-hitting center fielder is what he profiles as in the majors.

ETA: 2020

Others To Watch In The System

Austin Hays (OF)

• 2017 was his breakout year with a .329/.366/.593 slash and 32 HR, 95 RBI, 81 R and five steals in 128 games before playing 20 games in Baltimore.
• He fell off a cliff in 2018 with a .236/.266/.409 line, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 40 R and six steals in 75 games mostly at Double-A before an ankle injury ended his season.
• Projects as a .280 hitter with 25+ HR power and 10-12 steals in the majors

ETA: 2019

Dean Kremer (RHP)

• Received as part of the Manny Machado trade in July 2018 after being drafted in the 14th-round of the 2016 draft by LAD.
• Shot up prospect rankings after breakout 2018 in which he threw 131.1 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and .222 BAA in 25 starts.
• Uses 90-93 mph Fastball, 82-84 mph Slider, and 82-85 mph Changeup and projects as a number three starter.

ETA: 2019

Blaine Knight (RHP)

• Third-round pick in 2018 out of University of Arkansas and came off a run to the College World Series.
• Including postseason, Knight went 14-0 with a 2.80 ERA and 102:25 K:BB ratio while beating six pitchers who were drafted higher than he was in the 2018 draft.
• Four average-to-plus pitches including 90-94 mph Fastball, a plus Slider, a curveball, and changeup with the breaking pitches having some of the highest spin rates in college.

ETA: 2021

Keegan Akin (LHP)

• Had a big 2018 season leading the Eastern League in Wins and Strikeouts and finishing third in ERA.
• The power lefty uses a three-pitch mix of a 60-grade Changeup, 55-grade Fastball, and 50-grade Slider that’s led to 253 Ks in 237.2 innings the last two years.
• Akin should play the full 2019 season at Triple-A Norfolk and be a candidate for the number three pitcher spot in 2020.

ETA: 2019

Rylan Bannon (2B/3B)

• Received as part of the Manny Machado trade in July of 2018 and was moved up to Double-A Bowie from High-A Rancho Cucamonga
• Over 155 games in 2018, Bannon hit .275/.389/.507 with 22 HR, 74 R, 72 RBI and four steals with much of that stat line coming in 89 games at High-A.
• Burgeoning plus-Power means he could play either third or second, but he fits better at second defensively.

ETA: 2020

Adam Hall (SS)

• Hall spent the whole 2018 season at Short-Season A-ball and hit .293/.368/.374 with one HR, 35 R, 24 RBI and 22 SB in 62 games at just 19 years old.
• He possesses three plus-tools (Hit, Speed, Arm) and has the defense to stick at short long-term though some refinement would help.
• Hall and Jean Carmona (SS) are the biggest sleepers in the system with a few years left in the minors ahead of them.

ETA: 2021