As trends in draft continue to shift, it’s apparent pitching and stolen bases remain higher on the radar than home runs. This creates value when looking to roster power hitters at a reduced price. Matt Olson rode the wave of his 24 home runs in only 189 at-bats in 2017 to a top-125 selection in NFBC drafts last year. Although his production stabilized, Olson produced 29 home runs, appearing in every game for Oakland with 85 runs and 84 RBI. His slash line did not crater with the exposure, Olson hit .247/.335/.453 over his 580 at-bats during his Age-24 season.
Looking at his batted ball data, Olson traded ground balls for line drives fueling his BABIP growth to .292 last year. He also generated fly balls 43.1 percent of the time with a whopping 47.1 hard hit percentage according to Fangraphs. As a sweetener, Olson improved upon his limited sample in 2017 by reducing his swinging strike percentage over two percent last year while increasing his contact rate by over four percent.
Detractors felt Olson could be a batting average risk, but he demonstrated growth in approach while not sacrificing exit velocity. As a primer, here’s Olson’s batted ball data on line drives and fly balls the last two years:
According to Statcast, Olson’s average velocity on all batted ball data of 93.1 MPH ranked fifth overall in baseball last season. As the chart depicts, when he’s able to hit a fly ball or line drive, his average exit velocity jumps to 97.4 MPH, tied for eighth overall. Olson recorded 419 batted ball events last year with 51.8 percent of them leaving his bat at 95 MPH-plus.
Also, ignoring his second half would be a mistake. Olson slashed a robust .264/.350/.468 with a 11.4 walk percentage, 24 percent strikeout rate and 41.4 hard hit percentage. If this signals Olson consolidating his discipline while honing his power, further growth could be possible. Not only in 2019, but as he enters his peak power years.
While maintaining an average at or above .250 could be a challenge for Olson, his expected average the last two years of .248 (using xSTATS data) suggests it will not bottom out either. Three outcome power hitters prove risky, but Olson’s been able to generate more contact without sacrificing home runs. Armed with better average exit velocities and discipline, can Olson reach another level?
Regarding his projections, so far, they seem to agree at least a repeat of last season will occur. Here’s two different prognostications of Olson:
- Matt Olson Steamer projection: 147 games, 531 at-bats, 81 runs, 32 home runs, 90 RBI, two stolen bases; .244/.337/.478
- Matt Olson THE BAT projection: 151 games, 555 at-bats, 81 runs, 31 home runs, 86 RBI, two stolen bases; .234/.330/.466
Given his expected statistics, hoping Olson at least replicates his slash line from last year seems reasonable. He’s presently slated to hit fifth for Oakland where he appeared in 114 games last year with 23 home runs in 425 at-bats and a .256/.346/.482 slash. If he reaches 550 or more at-bats, Olson could launch 35 or more home runs without killing a fantasy team’s batting average.
Paying for his baseline projections will still yield potential for profit given his present average draft position in the low-100’s. Last year felt like a reach to roster Olson, but this year, he feels like a bargain. If there’s a player outside the top-100 picks who could finish with 40 home runs, Olson could be it. For now, Olson provides a stable option for power counting statistics with a chance for growth. Enjoy the ride, especially if his home splits migrate towards his 2017 numbers.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, THE BAT projection courtesy of Derek Carty