First Baseman
There seems to be a growing thought in baseball that you can just plug whomever you want into the corners, specifically first, and all will work out fine. However in terms of fantasy, that isn’t always the case if you want to be successful. Sure there’s some depth, but first doesn’t really have it and getting ahead of the curve is how you stay successful in the fantasy realm. So let’s focus on the next batch coming through the minors that you can get on your team(s) now, ahead of the game.
Brendan McKay (TB 1B/LHP)
With all of the hoopla going on about Shohei Ohtani (even with the bad start Tuesday night) and his predilection for playing both ways, it’s important to note that the top prospect at first base at the moment is also the fifth-best left-handed pitching prospect as well. He was drafted out of Louisville in 2017 at fourth overall and was regarded as the best two-way player in the draft since Dave Winfield in 1973, high praise. So far he’s lived up to that billing in a small sample size. In 125 at bats (36 games worth) in 2017, McKay hit .232 (.281 BABIP)/.349/.376 with four homers, 22 RBI, 16 runs, and two steals. While on the mound he started six games with a 1-0 record over 20 innings pitched, a 1.80 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts. McKay has now progressed to Class-A Bowling Green but is continuing to see time at both first and the bump having started six games at first and two on the mound in 2018. He profiles as a .300 hitter with 20+-homer pop in the majors while playing an above average defense at first. Meanwhileon the hill he utilizes a four-pitch mix of a 92-95 mph fastball, a curve and cutter that are both 60-grade pitches and miss bats, and a developing changeup that he shows feel for. The biggest issue he faces is that his velocity doesn’t stick around long in his starts thus far. Tampa Bay intends to keep him as a two-way player and could utilize the model L.A. has with Ohtani.
ETA: 2019
Pavin Smith (ARI 1B)
Like McKay, Smith was taken in the first round of the 2017 June draft at seventh overall out of UVA. He has an advanced bat for his age and level and showed it while walking three times more than he struck out in his junior year of college as well as hitting more homers than he struck out. At Low-A last year he played 51 games while compiling a .318/.401/.415 slash line with 34 runs, 27 RBI, and two steals. Yes you’ll notice he hit no homers in that span. He has yet to hit a homer either this season in 11 games at High-A and has struggled with the stick to the tune of a .136/.240/.159 triple slash. While his ability to draw walks is a great skill to have, he will need his power to come in shortly if Smith really wants to move through the system with some haste. The defense isn’t in question as he’ll be adequate enough to stick in the field, but given that first base is typically a big run producing spot, Smith will start needing to produce more in the box before he really rises in the eyes of fantasy owners, plus Paul Goldschmidt needs to not be in front of him either.
ETA: 2020
Nick Pratto (KC 1B)
Following seven spots behind Smith in last year’s draft, Pratto was drafted at 14th overall out of high school as, what many thought could be, a burgeoning two-way player. However Kansas City has played him exclusively at first base since turning pro. Starting out in rookie ball in 2017, 52 games of action resulted in a .247/.330/.414 slash line while hitting four homers, driving in 34, scoring 25, and stealing 10 bags. The 19-year-old Pratto has great defensive instincts around the bag and may be a gold glover down the road but the biggest hole in his game at the moment is his swing-and-miss tendency. Granted it’s a small sample size, just 63 games total between last year and this, but he’s struck out 71 times in that span resulting in a 25.8% K-rate thus far. His BABIP of .319 last year and a wOBA of .342 show he’s got the chops offensively as does his 22 XBH in 49 hits a year ago. Prep bats can often take a circuitous route to the majors with some stops and starts mixed in, but with first base not occupied long-term in KC it’s Pratto’s to work his way towards.
ETA: 2021
Peter Alonso (NYM 1B)
Breaking the trend, Alonso was taken in the second round of the 2016 draft and thus is further along than the others broken down in this piece. The 23-year-old former Florida Gator is in Double-A for the Mets starting 2018, after finishing there in 2017 and nine games into his campaign he’s slashing .375/.459/.750 with three homers, seven RBI, and six runs. Alonso played the most pro games he has in a season last year with 93 split between High-A and Double-A (82 at High-A). He combined for a .289/.358/.523 slash with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 52 runs, and three steals, which all profile well as a middle-of-the-order bat at first base. A few things put pressure on his profile as he has well below-average speed (30-grade run) and is just an adequate defender there at the moment (45-grade field). Plus he’s a right-handed hitter, which is unusual for a first baseman, though it clearly works for a few in the game today. The issue for the 6’3” 245-pound prospect is that if he can’t field well enough, he is just an ordinary right-handed DH option, which clearly won’t work while staying with the Mets. Dominic Smith and Adrián González , for 2017 at least, are in his way on the depth chart but if Alonso shows more consistency at the dish than Smith, it’s his job to lose in New York.
ETA: 2019