2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Trea Turner

Trea Turner

Fantasy players seem to swoon for player who possess upside. Especially those who fill the need, the need for speed. Although the injury prone label will be attached to Trea Turner, recall the label being applied to Giancarlo Stanton prior to last season, myself included. Turner did miss time between April eighth through the 21st with a right hamstring strain and landed on the disabled list once again in June with a non-displaced fracture in his wrist, costing him 51 more games. So to many, Turner proved to be a bust according to return compared to his production last year. It’s fair.

However, to stamp Turner as a risk in the first round due to injury could be a mistake. With fantasy teams trying to hit the 150 stolen base totals in projections for this year, it will be tough unless targeting a player with speed. Most “one-trick ponies” in the speed department offer up runs and steals, but do not benefit teams in other categories. Dee Gordon does help in regards to runs scored without damaging batting average like Billy Hamilton, so there can be exceptions.

After a scintillating debut in 2016 during which Turner racked up 13 home runs with 33 stolen bases in only 324 plate appearances, fantasy owners moved him up to the 10th player taken in NFBC drafts prior to the start of last season. Turner started slow out of the gate with a 3-for-19 start along with an early trip to the disabled list. At the end of the first half, Turner’s slash lines sagged to .279/.324/.422 justifying his preseason critics. Turner did scored 53 runs in 67 games with seven home runs, 32 RBI and 35 stolen bases, so the counting statistics did not suffer as much as the average.

Then, the hit-by-pitch which harpooned Turner’s season limiting him to a 30-game sample in the second half. However, Turner caught fire going 35-for-118 (.297) to end the season with 11 doubles, two triples, four home runs, 13 RBI, 12 walks, 11 stolen bases and scored 22 runs. It did not salvage his first round status, but it does put him on the precipice of a pending breakout if he can stay healthy. Herein lies the rub. Can fantasy owners trust Turner as a first round investment?

Since Turner’s yet to turn in a full major league season, it can be difficult to say. For starters, using Baseball-Reference’s 162 game pace as a guide, it could look like this: 621 at-bats, 109 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI, 66 stolen bases and a .304/.348/.491 slash line. Soak this in for a moment. It may never happen, but only three players in major league history ever turned in a season with at least 20 home runs and 60 or more stolen bases. Joe Morgan (two times), Rickey Henderson (three times) and Eric Davis with Jonathan Villar missing by a home run in 2016.

Trea Turner’s speed should be unquestioned. He’s stolen 81 bases over his 198 game career so far and been more aggressive running the bases in the majors than the minors. According to Statcast data, Turner reached 22.7 MPH on a triple and an infield hit during the 2016 season. With Washington, Turner’s converted his 81 steals in 97 attempts for a 83.5 percent success rate. With health, it seems within reach for Turner to steal 50 or more bases as long as he can reach 550 or more at-bats.

There’s much more skepticism regarding Turner hitting for power over a full season which could put the 20 home runs in a season out of reach like Villar. But is this fair? Remember when Jose Altuve could not repeat his power surge of 2015 of 15 home runs? He’s hit 24 in each of the last two seasons. Before delving into some similarities, Turner’s not the same type of hitter as Altuve. He does not own the same plate discipline or contact rates to support a consistent average in the three hundreds, but Turner’s speed will keep his average from cratering as well.

Despite his wiry build, Turner’s hit the ball well for power in the major leagues. With 25 career home runs in 759 at-bats, it does not jump off the page, but it’s also not a component to ignore. Last year, Jose Altuve’s average home run traveled 397.23 feet with an average exit velocity of 85.95 MPH. Turner’s home runs averaged 400.14 feet with an average exit velocity of 89.71 MPH. Shifting to average fly ball distance, Turner finished at 319 feet, Altuve 318 feet. Pretty similar with Turner being ahead slightly in average distance and exit velocity.

Turning focus to batted ball data, there’s a very limited sample in regards to Turner, but Altuve’s gone through some evolution in his fly ball data improving his pull percentage, hard contact and home run per fly ball percentage from 2014 through 2016 leading to his 24 home runs. Here’s a look in chart form with some points of interest highlighted:

As alluded to above, once Altuve pulled the ball more, he hit with a higher exit velocity resulting in more home runs. Here’s Trea Turner’s same chart from the last two years:

Personally, it’s surprising to see him hit as many fly balls in his 30-game second half along with the spike in pull percentage and hard contact. Even if Turner regresses back to his career marks, a run at 20 home runs could happen with enough at-bats. His average could even improve with a bounce back in BABIP and line drive percentage this year. While much of this can be relative, Turner does own the skill set to make some history.

Moving to his projections, Fangraphs makes three different sites available. Included in the chart below will be the Steamer Projection (Steamerprojections.com), ZiPS (courtesy of Dan Szymborski) and depth charts along with my personal one. His outcome this year will be based on reaching 550 or more at-bats, something he’s only done once since becoming a professional in 2014.

It can be regarded as a leap of faith or speculation, but Trea Turner should reach his breakout season. Most will side with caution in regards to Turner. He could finish near the ZiPS levels if an injury sidelines him, but the power is better than he’s credited for and the speed’s for real. Taking Turner in the top-five can be justified. Real question will be garnering enough at-bats to justify taking the chance. Suffice it to say, I’m a believer.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com

Speed quote and MPH from this article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/trea-turner-is-faster-than-you-and-probably-everyone-else-in-baseball/2016/09/04/89c61fb6-7077-11e6-8365-b19e428a975e_story.html?utm_term=.b5737231f6c6

Three players with 20 HR and 60 SB info from: https://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin/story/statuesday-milwaukee-brewers-jonathan-villar-20-60-club-joe-morgan-rickey-henderson-092716