2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Manny Machado

Manny Machado

When a former first round talent begins to drift in average draft position, it initiates debate. There’s going to be many who will be in favor of taking Manny Machado on the wheel in 15-team league drafts at his present price of the 19th pick in early NFBC drafts, and those who will not, burned last year with long memories.

With so many potential trips down narrative street, which path will be forged by Machado? He’s on the precipice of his prime, turning 26 in July. Machado’s also about to hit the open market as a free agent in the off-season, representing part of the reason so many teams will be hesitant to overpay the aging veterans flush in the present market.

Although Machado did not reach the levels from 2015 or 2016 last year, he’s still a stable skill set with room for growth. Unlike many players in the profiles, Machado did not go through any overwhelming changes in terms of batted ball data or plate discipline over the last three years. But there’s information worth noting.

First, during the last three years, Machado’s racked up 1,903 at-bats with 288 runs, 103 doubles, three triples, 105 home runs, 277 RBI, 29 stolen bases and a .280/.326/.500 slash line. This translates to an average of 96 runs, 35 home runs, 92 RBI and 10 steals for standard leagues. Not too shabby. Machado’s finished as a top-10 pick in NFBC ADP from both 2016 and 2017 but his highest draft pick so far sits at eight (his average in the two previous seasons) with a maximum pick of 26th overall. So, this should bring about some conversation regarding Machado as a pass or a player to target at a bargain price.

Keeping in mind his past three seasons, here’s a spray chart courtesy of MLBfarm.com showing his batted ball data in picture form:

For those like me who prefer to see his tendencies in a clearer chart form, here’s this same data but relative to the results:

Unlike many hitters with more than 30 home runs per season over the last three years, Machado does not rely on pulling the ball for power. His ability to hit to ball to all fields may be overlooked. Shifting over to the data from Statcast, Machado finished tied for 30th with 7.8 barrels per plate appearance last year. Of his 525 batted ball events, Machado recorded 240 with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or more (45.8 percent). He also averaged 330 feet on fly balls out of 117 events tying both Jake Lamb and Nick Castellanos. It feels like people do not count on Machado for reliable power, but with 105 homers over the last three years, it’s another overlooked aspect of his game.

With the premise of little variance to his batted ball data and discipline, how can one predict how Machado will do this year? Does this create the potential value? While digging for information, one nugget seemed to emerge, when Machado’s getting on-base well, his weighted runs created plus metric (wRC+) increases as a result. Part of the allure of wRC+ can be how it views player performance in a vacuum against the league average. Bearing in mind his three year totals and averages listed above, here’s Machado’s accompanying on-base percentage and wRC+ chart:

It’s striking how much the two align with one another. There’s some interesting numbers within Machado’s splits the last three years, but he did much better in the first halves of both 2015 and 2016, but went the complete opposite way last year. But the numbers do not seem as tangible as Machado’s 2015 season plus the first half of 2016 versus its second half plus all of last season. Put a line down the middle of the chart of above and it’s worth noting. Most of 2015 and early 2016 exist above the line running across the middle whereas the numbers after fall below.

Splitting his last three seasons in half provides some insight on why Machado’s price seems to be falling in spite of his age and entering his prime production years. Here’s the results in chart form. Note the differences in runs and slash lines in the comparison:

Everything with the charts and recent production seem to focus on what Machado’s not doing well. Ignoring his underlying data which suggest some of last year’s first half struggles can be attributed to bad luck and a fluky BABIP of .239 harpooning his average. It’s striking to see Machado’s runs crater in the chart above and his stolen base totals of 20 in 2015, zero in 2016 and nine last year also wreak havoc with projections.

But, staying focused, most projection modules will use the last three years data and try to forecast a reasonable outcome based on age, ballpark factors, playing time and numbers. Machado’s baseline with this hypothesis remains: 96 runs, 35 home runs, 92 RBI and a .280/.338/.502 slash line.

Ready for some good news? Many, myself included, begged owners to target Machado in trades last year during the All-Star break. He’s just too talented to remain at the .230/.296/.445 level from the first half. Over his last 300 at-bats of last year, Machado turned things around with 43 runs, 15 home runs (12 in August), 48 RBI and five stolen bases. More importantly, he increased his slash lines to .290/.326/.500 in the process. Encouraging, but not quite to the level of on-base percentage in order to fully unlock his potential. As a result, his wRC+ only hit 114 in the second half.

Also, once Jonathan Schoop took over hitting third, Machado nestled into the second spot of the batting order which immediately paid dividends. Machado hit second 91 times last year. In 372 at-bats, he scored 54 runs with 20 doubles, 24 home runs, 67 RBI and five steals with a .296/.335/.524 slash line. Enticing? Absolutely.

There’s no guarantees in baseball but it should not take Manny Machado starting the season as the shortstop for Baltimore to make him more valuable in fantasy baseball. Sure the added eligibility after his 20th game played will enhance his worth, but there’s not many players in his price range who could turn in a career year. It will come with some risk as the charts illustrate, but Machado in the second round could turn in a top-five performance in fantasy. Especially if he adds double digit steals once again. Keep tabs on his on-base percentage during the season since it predicts his overall success.

Manny Machado will be entering his prime, potentially the free agent market at the end of the season and will add shortstop eligibility. It’s rare stability can prove advantageous at a depressed cost. For those willing to take the chance, it could pay off handsomely. Third base will not be as deep as one thinks in drafts and Machado could turn in a career year. Not saying 40 home runs will be happen, but if he hits .290 with 37 home runs and 10 steals with 200 runs plus RBI, it’s first round production in round two.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, Draft data courtesy of https://playnfbc.sportshubtech.com/adp