2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Ian Kinsler

Ian Kinsler

Perception can drive average draft position. During the last three years, only 11 players scored more than 300 runs, an underrated and oft overlooked statistic. What if one of them improved upon his walk percentage, struck out less, joined the organization which stole the most bases last year and projected to hit leadoff in the year ahead? Of course, he will turn 36 this year with many focused on baseball becoming a young man’s game, but should a tough 2017 translate into over 100 draft spots lower on average?

Ian Kinsler’s BABIP cratered to .244 last year, his lowest total since 2011 but carries a career mark of .286, which could translate into some positive migration within his numbers going forward. He’s recorded double digit home runs and stolen bases for seven straight seasons. Looking under the proverbial hood, not much changed in regards to his approach or plate discipline.

This yielded a .236/.313/.412 slash line in 2017 which seems to make owners fearful for the year ahead. Kinsler also failed to play in more than 140 games for the second time in five years, but he’s still been durable during this time frame. While Kinsler does seem to be trading some batting average for power, there’s enough of a track record to predict a rebound.

Plus, Kinsler has increased his hard contact percentage in each of the last three seasons with a career best 37 percent last year. It does not seem fluky with xSTATS finding Kinsler’s expected home run total from 2017 to be 21.4, slightly under his total of 22 in only 551 at-bats. Hope also lies in his expected slash on the site of, .262/.337/.451, keep this in mind for his final projection.

Before delving into what Kinsler may achieve this year, his new employer, the Angels, led the majors with 136 stolen bases as one of seven teams to surpass 100 on the season. They also attempted the most steals in baseball which means Kinsler could see his stolen base totals spike slightly. Kinsler has stolen 14 in back-to-back years, but at a time when fantasy owners crave pocket steals, Kinsler’s draft value seems to backslide due to his paltry batting average in 2017.

Much of his struggles occurred versus right-handed pitching last year. Kinsler’s expected slash against them of .250/.326/.418 sits below his totals the last three years of .268/.328/.424 in just under 1,400 at-bats. He does provide power against them with 46 homers in this time frame, but will need to rebound in the year ahead to see his average return to a more palatable level. However, if Kinsler can carry over the improved walk rate and lower strikeout totals from last year with migration to the mean versus right-handed pitching, he’s being undervalued in drafts.

Some of this can be attributed to his current projections. Here’s a sample of three different prognostications along with his three-year averages as a reference point:

There’s no guarantee Kinsler will accrue at least 600 at-bats, but he’s accomplished this feat in three of the last four years. Hitting first in a lineup with Mike Trout and Justin Upton behind him should only enhance Kinsler’s value, not hurt it. Heed the highlighted numbers above with the xSTATS slash from last year (.262/.337/.451), which does not stray too far from his three-year averages as a baseline.

Much of Kinsler’s 2018 outcomes will be based on how many at-bats he ultimately gets, but projecting him for 90 runs, with 16 home runs, 60 RBI and 14 stolen base seems enticing. Add in the reduced cost, over 100 picks in ADP according to NFBC data, despite going to an aggressive base running team like the Angels, and Kinsler makes for a terrific player to target at second base or the middle infield who can help in all four counting statistical categories without harpooning batting average.

Veterans no longer seem sexy in drafts or auctions, but players like Kinsler who’s value seems masked by a perceived drop in production make for terrific pivots at present price points. This makes Kinsler someone to remember after round 12, especially if in need of runs or double digit steals. Bounce back players prove to be just as important as the breakouts when winning a league, especially if Kinsler hits 20 home runs with 15 stolen bases, it’s within the realm of outcomes.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, xSTATS.org, MLB.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski