As we head into the final week or weeks of the regular season at this point, let’s do the Red Zone Report in a slightly different way this week. We’ll be taking a look at the guys at each position who are seeing the biggest percentages of their work in the red zone to give you a picture of who might be worthwhile fliers down the stretch.
Red Zone Passing
Matt Ryan, QB ATL - Ryan has 16 total touchdowns on the year and 14 of those have come inside the red zone. That might not be a surprise to some as his big play targets haven’t been there this year but still, that high of a percentage of scores coming inside the 20 is remarkable. The league-average over the last few years for passing touchdown red zone rate has been in the mid 60s but Ryan is up at 87.5-percent currently. It’s tough to trust the Falcons offense right now, but in one or two match-ups left, they could move the ball and get Ryan the chance for passing touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR - Stafford isn’t here for the touchdown rate, though he is above league-average currently. Rather, he’s here for the high percentage of his pass attempts that come inside the 20 as nearly 20-percent of his total pass attempts have come in this area of the field. Among full-time starters, that’s the highest percentage in the league and it tends to show how the Rams’ offense has been functioning all year. The Rams have struggled recently but they have an easier schedule in the next few weeks which should help Stafford put up good games.
Jalen Hurts, QB PHI - Hurts counts as a flier because he’s been up and down this year, despite posting the second highest fantasy points total among quarterbacks. Hurts’ specialty in the red zone has been rushing, and he’s don’t quite a lot. In fact, he’s by far and away the most popular option for rushing the ball inside the 20 to this point, accounting for over 36-percent of total team rushes inside the 20. We already know that rushing touchdowns come at a high clip inside the red zone so the guy carrying the ball the most in that region gets a touchdown boost from that.
Red Zone Rushing
Damien Harris, RB NE - Harris might be getting split in the New England backfield now, but Harris is still getting the production in the red zone. Of his eight touchdowns on the year, seven of them have come inside the 20 to this point. Even with him missing a game, he’s still seen more carries in the red zone over the last few games too and so the rate of touchdown scoring should be able to continue, as long as Belichick and company don’t try to get too cute.
James Conner, RB ARI - Conner has been a popular play most of the last few weeks and for good reason as he has 12 touchdowns inside the 20 on the year and has been the lead back without Chase Edmonds in the picture. So why is he a “flier” for late in the season? Edmonds is due to come back next week and most might think Conner doesn’t have much value after that, but even with Edmonds healthy, Conner was the red zone back. The other interesting trend with Conner is that while he’s accounted for 44-percent of the red zone carries inside the 20, that number goes up to 61-percent inside the five-yard line and 66-percent of his scores have come from there as well.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS - Gibson may have started off slower than we’d hoped but he’s making up for it spades over the last few games. People questioning whether to keep using him down the stretch because they may not trust the offense still in Washington would be making a mistake. They’ve switched to a run-based offense the last few weeks and Gibson has been the biggest beneficiary of that with 18 of his 32 red zone carries on the year coming in the last three games and he’s been imposing his will closer to the goal line. Only 16 percent of his 32 carries have turned into touchdowns inside the 20 overall, but that number goes up to 44-percent inside the five-yard line with four scores on nine carries.
Red Zone Receiving
Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT - Perhaps the hottest tight end in the fantasy realm with five straight games with at least one red zone target. He turned those targets into six touchdowns on the year and is also the second-most targeted tight end inside the 20 on the year as well. It gets better though as 25-percent of his catches have come in the red zone and 28.3-percent of his targets have come from that part of the field too. If he’s still available in your league he’s getting the volume that turns into big value.
DK Metcalf, WR SEA - Metcalf has been a bit down of late and hasn’t been the catcher of Russell Wilson’s eye of late either but, when he’s getting looks on the year, they’re coming inside the 20. He accounts for 36-percent of the Seahawks' total targets on the year and three-quarters of his touchdowns have come inside the 20 as well. If the Seahawks are going to get back on track, they’ll need to utilize Metcalf more and his skill set is perfect for being the red zone threat they clearly need.
Van Jefferson, WR LAR - Right now, Jefferson is the healthiest receiver behind Cooper Kupp and he’s also the healthiest receiver with the biggest target share in the red zone behind Kupp. Even accounting for Robert Woods’ targets before he was injured, Jefferson is still at 14-percent for the year. He also is coming off a big game against the Packers which should continue against the Jaguars this week especially if Odell Beckham is still hampered by the back injury.
Foster Moreau, TE LV - Moreau is the trending option this week with Darren Waller seemingly out this week and the Raiders heavily focusing on just two receiving options. Hunter Renfrow is the top target receiving wise and Moreau has done well in place of Waller in previous games too. This is the longer shot flier but the volume should be there to at least make him a reasonable option.