Signing Day is behind us and more and more players are opting to skip their bowl games to “prepare” for the next level. That’s fine. As long as you tell us ahead of time. We are back for another semi-full slate of Saturday Bowl action. Okay, so four games isn’t exactly “full” - but we can make it what we make it. We have some potentially fun games to watch and we all know that it is a lot of fun to win college football DFS. Let’s take a close look at the four games and identify some of the top plays on DraftKings this Saturday. Deal?
Memphis vs. Wake Forest
12:00 PM ET - Birmingham Bowl - Legion Field, Birmingham, AL - Total: 73.0
Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees, light winds
This one can turn in a track meet very quickly. By far the highest total of the day with two fast-paced offenses and not much defense to speak of. Weather should cooperate and you’ll want some shares in this one. This is not news to anybody, so we need to identify the best plays from this game and see how we can stack in a tournament lineup without being too contrarian. Memphis RB Darrell Henderson is one of those choosing to sit this out, making his running-mate Patrick Taylor Jr. as the top play in this game. It will be interesting to see how Taylor does as the first option - we like his chances. The uber-athletic WR/RB Tony Pollard could see more touches as a result as well, making him an intriguing play. Both quarterbacks are in play but we like Demon Deacon Jamie Newman, who came on strong after taking over the reigns when an injury struck freshman Sam Hartman was injured in early November. In the final three games, Newman threw for 680 yards, eight touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He will also chip in with his legs, which is a separator from Memphis’ Brady White. Don’t get this wrong, White is a gunslinger and there is plenty of plays to go around, but the Tigers lean on the run a bit more and White doesn’t really leave the pocket (-31 rushing yards). The other big storyline is the status of Wake star WR Greg Dortch who injured his finger in their last regular season game and is questionable to play. If he is cleared, there still should be some concern and pull back there. Memphis top WR Damonte Coxie is certainly in play and could have a huge game. His 66 catches were (by far) the most on the team and he is White’s stare down. Though, he was slowed to just eight catches over his last three games. All of the other options on the Memphis side come with risk, including Pop Wiliams and TE Joey Magnifico. Magnifico could sneak in a touchdown and return value. If Dortch is out, both/either Wake WR Sage Surratt and senior Alex Bachman are certainly in play. Even if Dortch goes, they could be worth a shot in a tournament lineup.
Houston vs. Army
3:30 PM ET - Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX - Total: 60.0
Weather: Mostly Sunny, 65 degrees, moderate winds
I’m a bit surprised that this total isn’t higher. Houston has almost no defense to speak of - and will be without all-world NFL prospect Ed Oliver again for this one. Army’s offense wasn’t bad at all and they run enough mis-direction to keep any defense - even competent ones - on their toes. RB Darnell Woolfolk has become the top option and gets a decimated run defense. Expect him to get over 25+ touches and really wear them down with his bruising style in the second half. He’s racked up 14 touchdowns and multiple scores are expected in this one. He comes in as our 3rd highest projected points player and top running back. Plus, at $5,700, he’s the top value play. He’ll be heavily owned but you won’t want to be without him. Army QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. also will get his touches and runs in this one. He could also pull back and hit somebody deep once or twice as Army sees little resistance. Don’t take any shots with Army receivers, even in tournaments - Hopkins threw it just eight times a game. Now, that said, there is potential value with either Jordan Asberry or Kell Walker, fellow backfield mates with Woolfolk. They are the primary options in the passing game and either could break free at any point - but don’t count on that in cash lineups. On the other end of things, Houston has the 11th rated offense per S&P+, though most of that was obtained with D’Eriq King at quarterback. His injury at the end of the season left freshman Clayton Tune at the helm. He was dreadful for the most part, hitting on just over 40% of his passes in two end-of-season starts against Tulane and Memphis. Though, he did salvage some of that with five touchdown passes to just two picks. Word on the street is that we might see some of the Tennessee transfer Quinten Dormady in this one too. As if we needed another reason to fade Tune. That hurts the value of all Houston receivers, though, if you must dabble in that area you’ll want Marquez Stevenson. Don’t say we didn’t warn you. Both Patrick Carr and Mulbah Car will get carries and will hurt each other.
Buffalo vs. Troy
7:00 PM ET - Dollar General Bowl - Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL - Total: 49.5
Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees, moderate winds
Buffalo had a 10-win season. It’s just that their two losses were both nationally televised and, well, losses. The fact is that this Bulls team is solid on both sides of the ball (32nd on offense and 57th on defense per BillC’s S&P+). They have a tall, lanky and athletic QB in Tyree Jackson who can make plays with his arm and legs. He has two legitimate threats in the passing game in Anthony Johnson (52-944-11 - while missing two games) and K.J. Osborn (49-835-6). Johnson is the go-to when healthy and excited. Osborn has faded the last third of the season with just five catches for 105 yards and no touchdowns over the last four games. In fact, he hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since September. Is the potential there? Sure, take a look at that Eastern Michigan game when he hauled in seven passes for 188 and three scores. Johnson showed up in the MAC title game against NIU with 7-124 and two scores. He is a Senior and this is his last game for the Bulls. He’s an NFL prospect and I expect him to want to show something in this showcase. The Bulls also feature a pair of young, talented backs in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks - both freshman. They have almost literally split carries (Patterson 168, Marks 170), though Patterson has a higher yards per rush (5.6 to 4.7) and Patterson leads in touchdowns 13 to 12. Neither really get too involved in the passing game. Coin flip on who has a better game but in this short slate, I wouldn't be mad at having them both in there. Though, they do have an opponent in Troy who ranked 35th in defensive S&P+ and 15th against the run. Surprisingly, they still have their head coach, Neal Brown, who many expected to bolt to a P5 school. The Trojans are much more pedestrian on the offensive side of the ball and get a Buffalo defense that, while solid overall, don’t scare you too much on either side of the coin. With a balanced attack and QB Sawyer Smith asked not to make any killer mistakes and control the clock, you will likely see a lot of RB B.J. Smith. Sawyer took over for the starter Kaleb Barker, who was having a nice season before a torn knee ligament ended his season. Smith has been, well, nothing to write home about. The running back version of Smith (B.J.) on the other hand, has been a revelation. The Junior running back is averaging just under 5.5 yards per carry and has 1,093 yards and 12 scores this season. He had a stretch of five straight 20+ carry games before the Trojans ran into Appalachian State in the final week and he went 15 times for just 53 yards against the stout Mountaineers front. He should be fed early and often and is a top play today. WR Damion Willis was slowed late in the season with a knee injury but he is expected back for this one giving Smith an added, much-needed playmaker. Willis missed the last two games but earlier in the month of November, he had his signature game against UL-Lafayette with ten catches for 213 and a score. The secondary option is Deondre Douglas who did a fair job stepping in for Willis as the main man, but he had injury struggles of his own prior to Willis going down. He had a stretch of four straight games with a touchdown catch through October before the injury. Another under-the-radar option is Sidney Davis, the Senior has just two touchdown catches on the season, but at his price point, could be a decent play with very low ownership.
Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii
10:30 PM ET - Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium, Honululu, HI - Total: 61.5
Weather: It’s frickin’ Hawaii...take a guess.
Last time to stay up late and enjoy some Hawaii football! Let’s do it one more time. They are visited by Louisiana Tech and this one could get pointsy. Hawai’i comes in at 118th in the nation on defense, but 50th (37th in passing) on offense. QB Cole McDonald leads the charge and needs just 210 yards to reach the 4,000 passing yard mark for the season. That, along with 35 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. Throw in 370 rushing yards and four more scores and you have a fantasy asset. He went in the first round of a recent Bowl Draft I participate in and I was hoping I could steal him on the way back in the second. The only reason he dropped that far is a solid Tech defense that could at least slow things down a bit. Also, the Warriors don’t go at a very fast pace (105th in adjusted pace per S&P+). The Bulldogs defense ranks a very respectable 47th in defensive S&P+, though if there is a weakness it appears to be in their rush defense. The problem is that the Hawaii running game rotation is in a bit of flux when they do choose to keep it on the ground - which is just 39% of the time, close to the fewest amongst FBS teams. So, Fred Holly III and/or Miles Reed could make an impact in this one if they wanted to change things up a bit. Don’t be fooled by the season-long numbers that shows Dayton Furata as the leading rusher. His carries have diminished and he missed the last game against San Diego State (though, not for injury or performance but for the birth of his baby girl). I’m not trusting anybody from this group. Who I am trusting is the great John Ursua, the Hawaii wide receiver has 89 grabs for 1,343 yards and 16 touchdowns this year. He’s a monster and should be widely owned. McDonald has a couple of other solid options in Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward in the passing game and with chucking it nearly 40+ times a game, there are targets and production to be had. Byrd is slightly more expensive ($6,700) than Ward ($6,000). Byrd is more of a cash play and Ward is a bigger play threat and better suited for GPP’s. Shifting over to the Tech offense facing that nearly non-existent Hawaii defense, QB J’Mar Smith should put up decent to plus numbers in this one. His season-long numbers are less-than impressive, though, he played some stiff defensive competition this year with LSU, Mississippi State and UAB on the schedule. By the way, he threw for 330 and three touchdowns (one pick) against LSU. He’s throwing it 35 times per game so the volume is there too. He’s priced less than UH’s Clayton Tune, so...yeah, we like J’Mar in this one. Like Hawaii, you can’t trust any of the running backs in the Bulldog corps. Between Israel Tucker, Kam McKnight and Jaquis Dancy. Heck, they might throw the ball 150 times between them. So, Adrian Hardy is a top choice at wide receiver and Teddy Veal, though inconsistent, is also in play. The cheap, high-upside option is Alfred Smith who has come on late and even took in eight passes for 105 against WKU in their last game.
Lineup Time!
Cash Example
QB - Cole McDonald (HAW vs. LT) - $8,800
RB - Patrick Taylor Jr. (MEM vs. WAKE) - $8,300
RB - Darnell Woolfolk (ARMY vs. UH) - $5,700
WR - Cedric Byrd (HAW vs. LT) - $6,700
WR - Joey Magnifico (MEM vs. WAKE) - $3,800
WR - Tony Pollard (MEM vs. WAKE) - $5,200
Flex - Teddy Veal (LT vs. HAW) - $4,500
S-Flex - Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (ARMY vs. UH) - $7,000
GPP Example
QB - J’Mar Smith - (LT vs. HAW) - $7,300
RB - Kevin Marks (BUFF vs TROY) - $5,800
RB - Darnell Woolfolk (ARMY vs. UH) - $5,700
WR - Alex Bachman (WAKE vs. MEM) - $4,700
WR - Damonte Coxie (MEM vs. WAKE) - $5,500
WR - John Ursua (HAW vs. LT) - $8,000
Flex - Sidney Davis (TROY vs. BUFF) - $4,200
S-Flex - Cole McDonald (HAW vs. LT) - $8,80