In a four game DFS NFL slate you are not going to wind up loving your lineup. OK, on FanDuel you could wind up loving your lineup but there is a zero chance that anybody playing on Draftkings this week loves their lineup.
Throughout the playoffs it will be vital to utilize our DFS NFL Ownership Forecaster in order to identify the players who possess enough upside but aren't going to be used by the majority of your opponents. Just as important as finding the lower ownership player is choosing which studs to fade. Here is a quick rundown of how I went about setting my lineups this week.
THE STUDS
I am not fading Odell Beckham Jr in any contest or format. He is simply too important to the Giants offense and the Packers are so miserable in their secondary right now that it's not worth the risk. OBJ could legitimately go for 25+ fantasy points this week in which case it'll be hard for any combination in your lineup to overcome that.
I also believe that the Giants are going to beat the Packers this week so you will see a Giants slant on some of my lineups. Of course, Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb are all in play with Rodgers being the highest upside play of them all. I prefer Adams myself and am using him in a few of my lineups both with or without Rodgers.
The most difficult choice of the week is which of the Steelers star players to use and which to fade. As you will see, on FanDuel I was able to fit in all three into a lineup and still use some other high ceiling players. This is impossible on Draftkings so be prepared. I like Le'Veon Bell a lot more than Antonio Brown this week because the Dolphins have been giving up rushing yards by the ton late in the season. Miami has surrendered the 2nd most rushing yards per carry and 3rd most rushing yards per game this season.
MID-TIER
Pretty much all of the Seahawks are considered mid-tier or lower this week and that is where we need to take advantage. I have Russell Wilson in my main lineups this week for several reasons. For starters, he will no longer be wearing his knee brace that has seemed to limit his mobility since week five of the regular season. Secondly, the Seahawks at home are a completely different animal. They get the benefit of the referees more often than not and that leads to nearly two touchdowns more per game. Finally, the Lions defense is simply not good. They had a good run earlier in the year but finshed dead last in the NFL in defensive value over average (DVOA) and next to last in ProFootballFocus overall defensive rating. They also gave up the second most fantasy points to QB's and the fifth most to TE's. A Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham combination of stack could pay off nicely and still afford you a Bell or OBJ this week.
I like both Golden Tate and Amari Cooper this week but could not fit them into any of my optimal lineups here. I preferred the run game of Oakland wherever I used them and Tate's price and the Lions projected total forced me away from him here.
VALUE
Finding the right value plays are crucial in small slates. These are the players that you are just not going to like. To find the best value options you need to scour the teams that none of us like this weekend. The Dolphins, Lions, Texans and Raiders in that order offer us some degree of value. I am really crushing on Kenny Stills this week as he and Matt Moore have had great chemistry late in the season. Stills has scored a TD in every game Moore has started and in each of his last four games. The game script for these Dolphins receivers is wonderful as well.
Zach Zenner and Anquan Boldin are my guys on the Lions although I am fading Zenner because of the projected ownership on him. I just don't see a big game out of him and would prefer to save some salary and get a guy that has more upside in the process. I think the way that the Raiders attack the Texans this week is on the ground especially with a rookie third string QB drawing the start. This means a lot of the three headed monster of Latavus Murray, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Of these three I am using Washington the most because he has both big gain potential and short yardage attributes for a very cheap price. The Texans defense just doesn't give up yards so we need to target Raiders players who can get in the box and Washington is my guy for that this week.
The tight end position is another spot where you can attack the value plays. I really want to use Jimmy Graham this week but the nature of my lineups just couldn't support that ideal. So, I am begging for a down week from Graham and getting just a little something out of the likes of Jesse James or Will Tye this week. C.J. Fiedorowicz is not that cheap but also in a terrific spot against the Raiders who surrendered the 9th most fantasy points to TE's this season.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I am only playing on FanDuel and Draftkings this week. If you want lineup advice for Fantasy Aces or any other site hit me up on Twitter or leave me a note here on our Fantasy Alarm forums.
These short game slates are GPP only. What I mean by that is everything you do is going to be best fitted for a tournament style contest. This is mostly because of the lack of true quality options and the amount of risk in nearly every player. This however doesn't mean that you only should play in GPP contests. If you are a conservative player by nature or have been on a losing streak of late you absolutely can play in 50/50 contests in order to give yourself a better chance of cashing. This all comes down to the amount of risk you are willing to take as there will certainly be more now in your lineups than there would be during a regular season NFL weekend.
Here are the DFS NFL Optimal Lineups for the NFL Wild Card Round: