With 11 games on our main slate to kick off the work week, we have a lot of pitching options to choose from. The problem is, a lot of them are not very good or in less than ideal match-ups. We're not worrying about much weather outside of the SD/ATL game, so at least we have that going for us. Let's dive into the slate of pitching!
Top Tier
Kevin Gausman vs. LAD - Sure the Dodgers offense comes into this game hot, but Gausman has been one of the league’s best pitchers and maybe, just maybe, we get him at lower ownership because of that. Gausman has a 1.73 ERA this year and has pitched to a 2.46 ERA against the Dodgers across two starts. He has an elite 30.5% K-rate on the year and also has managed to keep his opponents to a 29% hard-hit rate as well. I may limit exposure to tournaments just based on how good the Dodgers look offensively right now.
Kyle Gibson vs. DET - Did I ever think I’d be OK with paying $9,000 for Kyle Gibson? No, but here we are. Outside of his last start -- against these same Tigers -- Gibson had been NAILS. He had allowed two runs or fewer in nine straight starts. Detroit is 19th in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching but the kicker is that they strikeout nearly 27% of the time against them. This is a ceiling type of match-up for Gibson.
Mid Tier
Ryan Yarbrough vs. BAL - This is a really good match-up for Yarbrough and the Rays as Baltimore has struggled mightily recently. In July, the Orioles are 27th in both OPS and wOBA and have struck out 24.9% of the time, which is the eighth highest rate in baseball. Yarbrough has looked sharp over his last three starts, allowing 2 ER or less in three consecutive starts. Pitching at Tropicana Field as the park ranks 28th in runs scored per game. I’d consider Yarbrough for all formats.
Tony Gonsolin vs. SF - We’re starting to get a really, really good version of Gonsolin as he’s controlling the ball much better than he was earlier in the year and is having much more success because of it. He threw a season-high 83 pitches his last time out and although he only went 4.1 innings, he struck out six and only allowed one run. He’s actually yet to allow more than one run in any of us eight outings this season. If he’s stretched out to 90 pitches, he could definitely qualify for a win here.
Value Tier
Caleb Smith vs. PIT - Has Smith looked great over his last two starts? No he hasn’t, but he draws the Pirates here with a chance to redeem himself. This season, Pittsburgh has the worst OPS in the league against left-handed pitching. They don’t hit for power against lefties, nor average. We’ve seen from Smith this season that he has double-digit strikeout upside. The Pirates don’t strike out a ton, but Smith’s stuff could present a problem for them here.