Time to take a look at some Monday-Thursday short-slate DFS. As always, I encourage you to check out Justin Mason’s Weekly Previews to get a deeper look into tonight’s action. In the meantime, here’s a snapshot of each game. Take a read and go build some lineups – remember, I only play GPP tournaments for short slates – then come back and compare to the ones I am leaving here as examples. As always, these are meant to serve as a comparison tool for your own lineups. These aren’t to be taken and submitted into contests as your own.
Here's a breakdown of the two games involved:
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
49ers: Run D – 10th Pass D – 23rd
Packers: Run D – 27th Pass D – 11th
Passing:
It looks like we’re just getting started with Aaron Rodgers this season as last week’s performance – 442 passing yards with three touchdowns – and the fact that he wasn’t even on the injury report this week has fantasy owners and DFS players salivating. The 49ers are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and their pass coverage is rated the worst in the league by Pro Football Focus. Even Josh Rosen picked them apart so imagine what Rodgers, who thrives against zone coverage, can do.
C.J. Beathard threw for a ton of yards last week against Arizona and found the end zone twice, however, he also spent the majority of time running around trying to spare himself a beating from the defensive line. His ability to extend plays with his legs is a positive attribute and he’s always a threat to run one into the end zone himself, but he is also lacking the weapons to really get things done. A number of injuries have put back-ups in place at the three other skill positions and Beathard is going to have to deal with it.
Rushing:
Packers head coach Mike McCarthy hates your fantasy team. We all thought Aaron Jones was going to take the lead in this backfield but after last week’s game which saw a distinct lack of snaps for Jones, McCarthy told the media that there’s more to being an NFL running back than just carrying the ball. He obviously meant pass-blocking which is apparently the reason Jamaal Williams is out-snapping him. Add in Ty Montgomery and you’ve got one mess of a committee on your hands.
With Matt Breida (ankle) listed as a game-time decision, the 49ers are going to have to rely heavily on Alfred Morris and, possibly, Raheem Mostert . The Packers are allowing an average of 105 rushing yards per game and have given up five rushing touchdowns, so should the Niners get inside the five, perhaps Morris can return some value. Of course, there’s always the chance Beathard poaches it.
Receiving:
How much do we love Davante Adams ? A lot. However, the numbers actually tell a different story. If you look at DVOA numbers, the 49ers are strongest against the opposing No. 1 wideout, ranking eighth overall. Against the No. 2, 3 and tight end, on the other hand, 21st, 21st and 24th. Now we certainly don’t expect Ahkello Witherspoon to hold down Adams tonight, but it does give us a little more hope for the other guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equinameous St. Brown. Both Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are expected to sit.
It looks like Beathard will get Marquise Goodwin back this week, but Pierre Garcon is questionable, Dante Pettis is out and Trent Taylor is doubtful. Goodwin has the softest match-up on paper, but if Garcon misses time, you can bet Goodwin gets the extra coverage his way. The sleeper this week is slot receiver Richie James . With Taylor out, James is expected to get the majority of snaps out of the slot and while the DVOA coverage numbers look decent, we all know that K’Waun Williams is crazy beatable.
Also keep an eye on George Kittle . He’s questionable for tonight’s game and we could see Garrett Celek instead and the Packers rank 14th in coverage against the position, allowing 60-plus yards per game to them.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Broncos: Run D – 26th Pass D – 18th
Cardinals: Run D – 12th Pass D – 12th
Passing:
Case Keenum versus Josh Rosen ? Not exactly a marquee match-up, is it? Both pass defenses are solid and while Rosen is facing the softer coverage (Denver ranks 20th in coverage according to PFF), it’s going to be a tougher time given the strength of the pass rush from Bradley Chubb and Von Miller . Keenum has the better set of weapons, but given the coverage schemes he’s going to see and the one-on-one match-up the receivers will see, it’s going to be very tough to trust him.
Rushing:
This is where this game will be won and lost. The team that does the best job stopping the run is going to win. Unfortunately for both, their run defense has been getting torched lately. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman (maybe even Devontae Booker ) are facing a run defense that has not only allowed 151.2 yards per game and 10 rushing touchdowns, but also ranks 25th in the league against running back pass plays, giving up almost 61 yards per game to them.
For the Cardinals, this offense should and will run through David Johnson . Denver is allowing 161.3 rushing yards per game (5.6 YPC), they’ve coughed up eight rushing touchdowns and they rank 20th against running back pass plays. If you can fit DJ into your lineups, you’ll be very happy.
Receiving:
This is going to be interesting, especially if you’re looking to use wideouts from this game and not just loading up on Aaron Rodgers ’ weapons. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and neither team gives up a ton of passing touchdowns. The Cardinals pass coverage is strong, but Emmanuel Sanders should be in play, as should maybe tight end Jeff Heuerman since Arizona ranks 23rd in coverage against the position.
On the Arizona side, I’m looking at Chad Williams and tight end Rickey Seals-Jones. Those seem to be the two softest spots for Rosen to attack the Denver defense. Christian Kirk also may be worth a look here as well. He and Rosen seem to have a strong connection and he’s starting to see an increase in targets.
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