Time to take a look at some Monday-Thursday short-slate DFS.
As always, I encourage you to check out Ryan Hallam’s Weekly Previews to get a deeper look into tonight’s action. In the meantime, here’s a snapshot of each game. Take a read and go build some lineups – remember, I only play GPP tournaments for short slates – then come back and compare to the ones I am leaving here as examples. As always, these are meant to serve as a comparison tool for your own lineups. These aren’t to be taken and submitted into contests as your own.
Here's a breakdown of the two games involved:
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins
Spread: Bears -5.5
O/U: 41
Defense Rankings:
Bears: Run D – 5th Pass D – 17th
Redskins: Run D – 29th Pass D – 28th
Offensive Breakdown:
Passing:
Given the match-up Thursday, one would assume that neither Case Keenum nor Mitchell Trubisky will be highly-coveted by the masses. However, understanding game theory and the need to differentiate yourself from the rest of the herd should actually push you in this direction. Trubisky has struggled this year, but against formidable pass defenses in Green Bay and Denver. The Redskins defense may be somewhat underrated at times, but they’ve been worked over by Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott , so if Matt Nagy has Trubisky wrangled in, he too, could exploit some surprisingly soft coverage.
As for Keenum, this should be an interesting test. He had a great start to the season in Week 1 against the Eagles, but just a modest performance against Dallas last week. The key will be how he handles the Bears pass-rush as there isn’t much confidence in the offensive line. If he can stay out of the grasp of the defensive linemen, he is likely to exploit some of the holes in the secondary, just as Denver did to the Bears last week. Remember, Buster Skrine is floating around out there.
Rushing:
This could actually be a nice coming-out party for rookie David Montgomery as the Redskins have allowed an average of 168 rushing yards per game. They could be without Jonathan Allen on the defensive line, they don’t have a lot of speed on the outside and since losing Reuben Foster to start the year, they struggle to stop the run up the middle. The only thing standing in our way is Nagy’s play-calling. We saw him limit the touches of Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis last week, so if he stays the course, we’re good. That doesn’t mean we rule out Cohen because he lines up as a receiver more often these days and that could pan out if the Bears stick to a short-passing game.
As for Adrian Peterson , you know you’re in trouble when all the articles reference the Bears as Peterson’s first opponent 12 years ago. Way to go, NFL beat writers. Great job. Sigh. No one cares about what Peterson did over a decade ago. Let’s talk about this week and let’s talk specifically to these teams right now. First of all, I have no interest in Peterson. He may flash some rejuvenated talent every now and then, but the Bears have been strong and have allowed just 68.5 rushing yards per game. I may give Chris Thompson a look as a deeper dive at the position as the Bears have given up 46.5 yards to RB pass plays, but that’s just the contrarian pivot.
Receiving:
On the Bears side, I have interest, albeit limited, in Allen Robinson as he is supposed to see the Josh Norman shadow. Early in the game, Norman will probably stay in press coverage and try to jam ARob up on the line, but as the game rolls on, he starts giving more and more room in coverage and Robinson’s speed will factor in. Anthony Miller could see a big game this week out of the slot as Redskins slot corner Jimmy Moreland does not grade out well in coverage. Tight end Trey Burton is still questionable with a groin issue, so take a look at Adam Shaheen as the Skins rank 27th in coverage against the tight end and have allowed 58.5 yards per game to the position.
For the Redskins, we go with the obvious and target slot corner Buster Skrine . He’s absolutely terrible and as he got torched by Emmanuel Sanders all game long last week, the Bears had to move Kyle Fuller on him. Skrine will stay on Trey Quinn early, so give me the undersized slot receiver as a primary DFS target. Be careful with your boy Terry McLaurin . Fuller and Prince Amukamara haave been strong in coverage thus far.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -4.5
O/U: 45.5
Defense Ranking:
Eagles: Run D – 2nd Pass D – 23rd
Packers: Run D – 14th Pass D – 3rd
Offensive Breakdown:
Passing:
Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers are going to be very popular in contests this week, though I’m leaning more towards Rodgers given the match-up against a soft Eagles secondary. Philadelphia has allowed an average of 293.7 passing yards per game and the idea of Davante Adams picking apart Ronald Darby and Sidney Jones is downright tasty. However, expect head coach Matt LaFleur to try and hit hard with the run as he routinely does. If they don’t find success on the ground, expect Rodgers to try and change the plays at the line.
So why am I more bullish on Rodgers than Wentz? Not because the Eagles receiving weapons are all hurt, but because the Packers defense has gotten a whole lot better than it’s been in quite some time. Kevin King , Tramon Williams and Jaire Alexander have been rock solid in coverage and they just decimated the Broncos passing attack this past week. Wentz is definitely better than Flacco, but is he good enough to out-think Packers DC Mike Pettine? Not so sure about that.
Rushing:
Can the Eagles get it done? More importantly, can Miles Sanders get it done without fumbling? The Packers have a number of ball hawks on the team and that could be an issue. That could/should give Jordan Howard a few more touches if HC Doug Pederson gets frustrated. Keep in mind, though, Pederson did specifically say in the post-game press conference he wanted to get Sanders back on the horse, so he should remain the primary even in this match-up….unless he fumbles again. Yeesh.
Aaron Jones is expected to see his usual touches, but, as I stated above, if the ground game isn’t working, Rodgers may audible more to keep the ball in his own hands. But before you go panicking and think, “hey, it’s the second-ranked run defense so he’s not going to do well,” keep in mind that the Eagles o rank 27th against running back pass plays and are allowing almost 72 yards per game to them.
Receiving:
Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor will be leaned on heavily, though, on paper, neither has a particularly strong match-up here. The Packers corners are strong and safety Josh Jackson grades out well against the tight end. The Eagles could fall into a pass-heavy scheme in this one though which means, volume could actually be your friend. For these two, that is.
On the Packers side, Davante Adams all day long. I’ll take some Marquez Valdes-Scantling too. Geronimo Allison ? Not so much. Jimmy Graham ? Hell no. I wish Rodgers was looking at Allison in the slot more, but it’s just not looking good for right now.