While MLB continues to fight over which side of the game they want to favor more, the hitting or the pitching, fantasy baseball owners are still looking for any possible edge over their competition. Power and pitching remain somewhat up in the air as we are all waiting for things to normalize in this great battle against Spider Tack and other foreign substances. The pitching was crazy to open the season, but now we’re starting to see a bigger hitting surge as MLB cracks down on pitching-grip aids. It will take a few more weeks for us to see how everyone is affected.
But as we start to see the mean for batting average and on-base percentage climb, perhaps we will also see an increase in stolen bases. To date, there have been 1,057 stolen bases over 1,408 attempts which is roughly a 75-percent success rate. The success rate jibes more with what we saw last year, but the overall totals are more on-pace with what we saw in 2019 when MLB totaled just 2,280 stolen bases on the year. So for now, the totals remain low, but we’ll have an easier time looking at on-pace numbers when we hit the mid-season break.
Even if we don’t see an uptick in steals around the league, fantasy owners are still going to need to find their way to more if they want to gain an advantage over the opposition. In most of my mixed leagues, only a small handful of stolen bases make up the difference of about four to five points within the category. That’s a substantial difference in the overall scoring and if adding a player who steals bases can gain you that many points, you need to investigate and see if you can make a move.
Where do you look? Who do you target?
Let’s start with the table below. Nice and simple. You get each team’s stolen base total, the number of times they’ve been caught stealing, the success rate and it is organized by total attempts. If it isn’t already obvious, you are looking for players on teams with not just a high number of attempts, but a high success rate as well.
As it stands right now, the Padres lead the league in stolen base attempts and have the fifth-highest success rate. Jackpot! It will be tough to acquire their stolen base leader, Fernando Tatis Jr., but what’s the price tag for Tommy Pham? Trent Grisham? Heck, even adding Jurickson Profar in deeper leagues could prove fruitful. Seek out those guys with just a small tweak deal and you could see an immediate rise in the standings.
On the flip side, the Cubs have the seventh-most attempts in the league, but that 66.1-percent success rate is pretty bad. Javier Baez may be a potential trade target, but there’s really no one else on that roster you can trust. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are tied for second on the team but both sit at four swipes and just a 50-percent success rate. Pass.
Teams like Miami, Kansas City, Texas and Detroit should all be in-play for you. It’s doubtful that many of their players would cost too much and all four clubs are likely to stay at the top of the attempts leaderboard simply because they aren’t doing anything in the real standings and they’ve got nothing to lose. Again, you don’t have to go for stolen base leader Whit Merrifield to make a move in the category – you can if you like – but players like Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Jazz Chisholm, Niko Goodrum, and Robbie Grossman are certainly worth an add; a less-expensive add, that is.
The list goes on – Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Raimel Tapia and even Marcus Semien are all players worthy of an add to your roster if you need a bump in stolen bases. If you’re at the bottom of the category in your league, it’s time to make a big move. Adding two or even three of these guys could make a huge difference in your league. If you’re hanging out in the middle of the pack, add one and see what the impact might be after a few weeks. And if you’re in the lead and have a decent margin between you and the folks directly behind you, shop some of that speed to the teams capable of making a move. It’s a surplus almost everyone needs.