MLB Streaks & Trends: Starling Power

Who's Hot

Starling Marte, Oakland

Once again, a trade at the deadline lit a fire under Marte. He's slashing .429/.462/.612 over the last two weeks in 52 plate appearances in 11 games. Within this time frame, he leads the majors with eight stolen bases while scoring nine runs, hitting two home runs and driving in nine for the A's. Overall, he's second in the major leagues in steals with 31 in only 76 games compared to the league leader, Whit Merrifield with 33 stolen bases in 113 contests. 

Lewis Brinson, Miami

Segue alert, with Marte moved at the deadline, Brinson's taken over center field for the Marlins and he's in the midst of a power surge. Over the last two weeks, he's launched four home runs driving in 15 with a robust .378/.417/.756 slash line in 48 plate appearances spanning 13 games. Of more interest during this stretch, his strikeout rate fell to 22.9 percent while his isolated power spiked to .378 with a 212 weighted run created plus metric. Fantasy players will track his results over the remainder of the season hoping he's putting it together at the major league level. Since the start of the second half, Brinson's played in 20 games while hitting .349/.406/.698 and striking out 27.5 percent of his plate appearances. Yes, the average will decline, but if he keeps his strikeout rate more palatable with the uptick in power, he may be breaking out.

Rafael Ortega, Chicago Cubs

Another beneficiary of the trade deadline creating a pathway to playing time, Orgtega's producing across the board with nine runs, four home runs, 10 RBI and four stolen bases the last two weeks slashing .447/.490/.745 through 51 plate appearances in 13 games. He's taken over lead-off for the Cubs and owns strong on-base abilities covered in this week's Behind the Breakout. 

Who's Not

Joey Gallo, New York Yankees

Perhaps it's not the ballpark after all depressing Gallo's results in Texas? There's always patience required if one puts him on their fantasy roster, but he's scuffling with a .140/.306/.280 slash line his last 14 games covering 62 plate appearances. He's scored nine runs but hit one home run with three RBI. Although he's still drawing walks at a 19.4 percent rate, his spike in strikeouts to 37.1 suggests he's pressing. He could hit a hot streak at any point, so bench him if possible and take advantage of a power spike if it happens soon. 

Carlos Santana, Kansas City 

No longer making sweet music at the plate for the Royals, Santana's hit the skids over his last two weeks with a .116/.224/.116 slash line over 12 games spanning 49 plate appearances. Of more concern, his .000 isolated power, meaning no extra-base hits, a .139 BABIP and .175 weighted on-base average (wOBA). He hit clean-up his last three starts before receiving the day off on Wednesday, but his days of being a late round flier at corner infield may lapse if he cannot hit fastballs going forward. 

Eric Haase, Detroit

Baseball can be tough on young hitters. After making a strong debut hitting home runs for the Tigers, it appears the league adjusted to him. Over the last two weeks, Haase owns a 35.4 strikeout percentage fueling his .159/.229/.273 slash line his last 48 plate appearances in 12 contests. One can handle a slump from the catcher position in fantasy, but his .114 isolated power and 37 wRC+ put him on the brink of tolerance. 

Migration to the Mean

Nicky Lopez, Kansas City

Trying to merge real baseball results with fantasy comes with mixed results. For instance, Baseball Savant's featured an article detailing the "breakout” by Lopez this season providing strong defense, speed and no power. It's linked if interested in the premise. However, his playing shortstop keeps one of the best prospects in baseball at Triple-A for a team taking advantage of team control. Over the last two weeks, Lopez posted a .220/.220/.293 slash line during 43 plate appearances with three runs, six RBI and two stolen bases. If this interests you from a fantasy standpoint, it's fine but not sold he finishes the season decent results: 

• .273 batting average versus a .230 expected batting average (xBA) - minus 43 points
• .345 slugging percentage versus a .300 expected slugging (xSLG) - minus 45 points
• .308 wOBA versus a .279 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - minus 29 points

Anthony Santander, Baltimore

Riding a hot streak of late, Santander's hit four home runs his last four games and hitting .349/.391/.674 the last two weeks in 46 plate appearances. Perhaps getting healthy, there's a chance he carries this forward due to his quality of contact with positive movement to the mean left in the games ahead: 

• .250 batting average versus a .283 xBA - plus 33 points
• .433 slugging percentage versus a .460 xSLG - plus 27 points
• .313 wOBA versus a .333 xwOBA - plus 31 points

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

After appearing on the "not” list last week, signs of hope emerged, especially in his power with four home runs in his last five contests. His last two weeks featured 10 games played with 41 plate appearances and a .263/.317/.632 slash line but with most of the results in a four game span. Can he cash in on the .368 isolated power the last seven weeks: 

• .180 batting average versus a .210 xBA - plus 30 points
• .355 slugging percentage versus a .368 xSLG - plus 13 points
• .276 wOBA versus a .297 xwOBA - plus 21 points

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com