Round four of the F1 World Championship battle heads to Italy for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola. While it’s still early in the season, there are some pivotal story lines for this race already. Will Red Bull rebound from two DNFs through three races? Will Ferrari keep their hot start to the season going at their “home” race? Will Alpha Tauri be able to rebound at the track 20 minutes from their factory? Was last race a blip on the radar or the start of something for Haas?
Imola is a track that’s known to be a hard one to pass at. It’s got a lot of tight turns, 19 to be exact, and only one DRS zone. That zone is on the front stretch across the start-finish line. If a driver has DRS to protect the position as well, that could make it very hard to pass. There is also quite a bit of elevation change over the course of the lap. We’ve seen porpoising being an issue for some cars this weekend, again. While others seem to be dealing with it better. Let’s also not forget the weather which might still be a factor. FP2 was run in dry and sunny conditions which made a huge difference in lap times and running order but FP1 and qualifying were in wet conditions. There’s still a chance of wet weather during the race but it’s mostly expected to be sunny and dry. With the Sprint race on Saturday and FP2 changing things up, there should be a more wide open strategy for this weekend.
F1 DFS Imola Top Plays
Captain Plays
Captain plays can be played in regular seats as well however they’re the drivers in which it makes sense to maximize the 1.5x point bonus.
Max Verstappen — $15,600 — P1
Verstappen on the pole after smoking Charles Leclerc in the sprint race is a good sign for his captaincy. The only thing that’s been holding Verstappen and Red Bull back this year is the reliability issue but Christian Horner indicate that they have that issue sorted out now. Game on for the championship then. Imola is a tough place to pass with one DRS zone meaning we should see Verstappen out front a lot.
George Russell — $12,900 — P11
Russell has outperformed his teammate to this point in the season and that goes for this weekend so far too. He’s also moved up well in each race this year. That’s exactly the reason we’re playing him in captain spot this week. He’s starting P11, ahead of his teammate, and ran the fastest lap on soft tires in the FP2. If Russell can find the race pace he’s shown in the previous three races he should have no problem moving up several spots on Sunday and beating his teammate. Bonus points coming his way in spades.
Yuki Tsunoda — $7,200 — P12
Tsunoda has been hit and miss this year but this is a week he should hit. In FP1 he ran P9 in the wet and in FP2 he ran P8 in the dry. That’s a nice combo of speed. He then started the Sprint in P16 and finished in 12th. Also a good sign to move up. If he can utilize his speed over the full race he should be able to move up a handful of spots and beat his teammate who’s starting P17 on Sunday. The drive for him as a regular driver is quite nice too but we’ll take the multiplier on the bonus points for sure.
Alex Albon — $5,400 — P18
Okay, what are you doing Matt? Why is a guy starting this far back in the captain spot? Well, we’re taking the risk that he can replicate his FP2 speed in the race when he ran 11th fastest. That’s a big chunk of positions he picked up for the Spots vs. Grid Position bonus points. Let’s also not forget that his teammate is Nicholas Latifi who struggles to finish races let alone finish them well. We’ll take cheap bonus points when we can.
Driver Plays
Charles Leclerc — $11,000 — P2
Leclerc got the jump on Verstappen at the start of the Sprint race but after about 20 laps, the Red Bull took back over. What that means for us is that Leclerc might be able to run out front of a while and lead a chunk of laps, but likely doesn’t have the speed to run away and hide like in previous weeks. That makes him better suited for a Driver spot rather than a captain spot. The Ferraris have been fast this week, again, but perhaps not quite fast enough, unless it rains.
Lewis Hamilton — $9,600 — P14
A lot has been talked about with Hamilton this week, including the heated discussion between him and Toto Wolf on Friday after missing Q3. The speed is clearly not there for Mercedes just yet, except in FP2 when Hamilton ran P4 on soft tires. That gives us a bit of hope that he can move up over the course of the race. There’s clearly risk here but perhaps a low-played option with how things played out this weekend and this season so far.
Sergio Perez – $9,000 – P3
Would it shock you to know that Perez has gotten the Defeated Teammate bonus twice in three races? He was the same price tag in Australia, in the same starting spot, and finished P2 with the bonus for 24 points. Verstappen will be a popular play on the pole but Perez outpaced him, majorly, in FP2 in the dry conditions and moved up from 7th to 3rd in the Sprint race. If he catches a break or two, we could see him grab some laps led and move up a spot for another good points day at lower ownership.
Lando Norris — $8,000 — P5
It wasn’t the best Sprint race for Norris who dropped back a couple of spots from the start. However, he’s still starting P5 and has been the best McLaren driver this year. He’s been outpacing Ricciardo this weekend again as well. Also, if the rain does come, Norris should be able to move up and perhaps snag a podium spot. If you want to take a risk that Ricciardo can outpace Norris, the $400 savings is reasonable.
Kevin Magnussen — $5,400 — P8
Magnussen has been great since coming back for Haas on short notice. While the Sprint didn’t go his way, that was more so a bad start issue and not enough time to recover. At practice, especially in qualifying, he was a top-eight car most of the weekend. In two of the three races he’s also beaten Mick Schumacher heads up for the bonus points there too.
Guanyu Zhou — $4,000 — P20
Yes, this track is tough to pass on. But, even with that, starting dead last offers nothing but Spots vs. Grid Position upside here. Especially considering that when he’s kept his car on track this weekend he’s been a top-10 car. There is risk here that he finishes outside the top-10 and certainly behind his teammate, however the price tag allows for another top driver in the build. Valterri Bottas is worth playing at his price tag, $6,800, too starting inside the top-10 and 13 spots better than his teammate.
Constructor Plays
Ferrari and Red Bull are always in play at this point so we’ll focus on some other interesting plays.
Mercedes — $9,000
Hey, welcome to the playbook Merc! We’ve been waiting for some signs of life from this team all season. But hold on Matt, I hear you think to yourself, they’re starting P11 and P14 so where’s the signs of life? Well, in FP2 when it was dry and they put on soft tires, they ran P1 and P4. While they didn’t move up in the Sprint race, that race is only a third the length of the full race and there’s upside here. If they can move up a few spots each, they’ll get us bonus points and some Spots vs. Grid Position points as well.
McLaren — $8,000
Coming off a 25-point showing at Albert Park two Sundays ago, they’re looking to double down on good race weekends. They’ll be starting P5 and P6 on Sunday which already starts them in the bonus on a track they can hold position at. Things could really turn in their favor if rain comes in during the race as both Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo excel in wet conditions, just like Friday. That 25-point showing is possible again as they finished P5 and P6 in Australia.
Haas — $4,600
Haas has their best starting spots of the year this weekend with both cars starting in the top-10. They both ran a tad slower than that at FP2 but, the race pace was good in the Sprint race on Saturday. With this track being so hard to pass on, if they can hold the spots, we’ll get bonus points from for the first this year.
AlphaTauri — $3,800
It’s been a rough start to the year for AlphaTauri. There’s no doubt about that. But, this weekend at their home track, things have started to look up. In FP2 both cars ran top-10 laps and will be starting outside of the top-10. If the speed from FP2 makes it to the race runs, we could be in for the best day of the year for AlphaTauri. That assumes the track stays dry like it was in FP2. There is risk to this constructor pick but there shouldn’t be a lot of lineups with them so if hits, it’s a differentiator.