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TSM (North America Rank: #6) vs. T1 (North America Rank: #10) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: TSM (-120) | T1 (-120)
Map Handicap: TSM -1.5 (+250) | T1 +1.5 (-400)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (-115)
TSM - Stats past three months:
WARDELL 1.29 Rating | 260 Average Combat Score | 0.90 Kills Per Round
LeviathanAG 1.17 Rating | 224 Average Combat Score | 0.75 Kills Per Round
hazed 1.13 Rating | 222 Average Combat Score | 0.75 Kills Per Round
bang 1.12 Rating | 221 Average Combat Score | 0.77 Kills Per Round
Subroza 1.07 Rating | 217 Average Combat Score | 0.77 Kills Per Round
T1 - Stats past three months:
autimatic 1.26 Rating | 258 Average Combat Score | 0.87 Kills Per Round
Brax 1.17 Rating | 214 Average Combat Score | 0.77 Kills Per Round
curry 1.15 Rating | 231 Average Combat Score | 0.83 Kills Per Round
Skadoodle 1.05 Rating | 185 Average Combat Score | 0.68 Kills Per Round
dawn 1.02 Rating | 180 Average Combat Score | 0.66 Kills Per Round
H2H Data:
These teams last faced each other in 2020 and both rosters have made a few changes since then. TSM have won the last three meetings with their most recent win coming on August 7th, 2020, which was a 2-1 victory (11-13 Split / 13-9 Bind / 13-5 Ascent), and Subroza led the way with 64 kills, 301 ACS and 201.5 ADR across three maps.
Projected Maps:
TSM bans Bind
T1 bans Breeze
TSM picks Split
T1 picks Icebox
Ascent/Haven is the decider map.
Prediction/Narrative:
T1 wins 2-1. These two teams were competing at the very beginning of competitive VALORANT play, and they have both made some roster changes since then that appear to be pretty solid so far. Both teams have now won six series in a row going back to the start of qualifiers, though T1 won ten maps in a row before dropping one against Version1 on Thursday, while TSM have played some closer series during that time. I think this should be a banger of a series that stays tight throughout and probably goes to a third map. TSM opened as a *slight* favorite, but the odds have moved in the favor of T1 since, and I agree with that line movement. It is truly difficult to pick against either one of these teams at the moment though.
Favorite PrizePicks Play:
WARDELL (TSM) - 81.5 Fantasy Score vs. T1 (Maps 1-2)
Last three maps played on Split
07/29 vs. Gen.G (23-21 Win): 41 Kills + 1 Assist = 83 Fantasy Points as Jett
07/23 vs. Andbox (12-14 Loss): 24 Kills + 6 Assists = 54 Fantasy Points as Jett
07/01 vs. Levitate Esports (13-8 Win): 13 Kills + 3 Assists = 29 Fantasy Points as Jett
Last three maps played on Icebox
07/29 vs. Gen.G (13-10 Win): 22 Kills + 3 Assists = 47 Fantasy Points as Jett
07/24 vs. DarkZero Esports (13-8 Win): 20 Kills + 5 Assists = 45 Fantasy Points as Jett
07/23 vs. Andbox (20-18 Win): 33 Kills + 5 Assists = 71 Fantasy Points as Jett
Tony’s Play: Over 81.5 Fantasy Score
WARDELL is an aggressive OPer who typically plays Jett, so on PrizePicks it generally makes sense to either take his over or fade him because the upside is definitely on the over. At a projection of 81.5, I think the over is a really strong play today given that this should be a competitive series. The odds have this dead even as a pick ‘em, though TSM did open as the favorite. Both teams ban Breeze, so we can probably expect to not see that map. Split and Icebox have been the respective map picks for these teams as of late, but there are no guarantees on the map pool with a spot in the Upper Final on the line. Either way, WARDELL should be in for a big day as the highest rated player on the server in the past three months with a 1.29 Rating, along with the highest ACS at 260 and highest kills per round at 0.90. His next closest teammate averages 0.77 kills per round during that time, which shows that WARDELL is often carrying. It was impressive to see him win more than 90% of his opening duels against Gen.G having won 20 out of 22, but I found it even more notable that he was simply taking so many of those duels. All signs point to a monster performance from WARDELL, and I love the upside on his over at a projection of 81.5 in this spot.
curry (T1) - 70.5 Fantasy Score vs. TSM (Maps 1-2)
Last three maps played on Split
07/29 vs. Version1 (13-9 Win): 21 Kills + 3 Assists = 45 Fantasy Points as Skye
07/23 vs. Project 13 (13-7 Win): 17 Kills + 3 Assists = 37 Fantasy Points as Skye
07/03 vs. Envy (13-5 Win): 14 Kills + 2 Assists = 30 Fantasy Points as Skye
Last three maps played on Icebox
07/29 vs. Version1 (8-13 Loss): 15 Kills + 6 Assists = 36 Fantasy Points as Reyna
07/25 vs. Built by Gamers (13-9 Win): 13 Kills + 4 Assists = 30 Fantasy Points as Reyna
07/23 vs. Renegades (13-5 Win): 22 Kills + 3 Assists = 47 Fantasy Points as Reyna
Tony’s Play: Over 70.5 Fantasy Score
We took curry’s under yesterday against Version1 and we won that bet, but the projection was higher at 73.5 and I consider this to be a more favorable spot for him today. His total would have gone over if Split was the first map yesterday instead of Haven, as he had a combined 81 fantasy score across Split & Icebox on Thursday, which are the first two maps that I am projecting for today. T1 should continue to pick Icebox if it is available, though TSM have had some success on that map as well. T1 have been utilizing a two duelist team comp on Icebox with curry as Reyna, and his upside on that Agent is tremendous since he plays so aggressively. They also typically have Skadoodle playing Sage, and we saw two Resurrections used on curry on Thursday, which gave him two extra chances to frag. Split is also an above average map for curry, and it is the most likely map pick for TSM. He has been playing Skye recently on Split, which I prefer over him playing Cypher on Haven. Curry has averaged the second most kills per round on his team with 0.83 in the past three months, which shows that he frequently takes fights and wins them. The over also makes a lot of sense as a correlation play with WARDELL’s over, since I expect a tight series that should benefit both of their projections.