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TSM (North America Rank: #3) vs. FaZe (North America Rank: #2) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: TSM (-180) | FaZe (+140)
Map Handicap: TSM -1.5 (+125) | FaZe +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 4.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-210)
TSM - Stats past three months:
WARDELL 1.29 Rating | 258 Average Combat Score | 0.91 Kills Per Round
LeviathanAG 1.16 Rating | 222 Average Combat Score | 0.75 Kills Per Round
bang 1.14 Rating | 222 Average Combat Score | 0.79 Kills Per Round
hazed 1.07 Rating | 212 Average Combat Score | 0.72 Kills Per Round
Subroza 1.05 Rating | 213 Average Combat Score | 0.75 Kills Per Round
FaZe - Stats past three months:
corey 1.25 Rating | 257 Average Combat Score | 0.90 Kills Per Round
babybay 1.24 Rating | 262 Average Combat Score | 0.88 Kills Per Round
ZachaREEE 1.06 Rating | 187 Average Combat Score | 0.70 Kills Per Round
BabyJ 1.01 Rating | 200 Average Combat Score | 0.71 Kills Per Round
Rawkus 0.97 Rating | 183 Average Combat Score | 0.64 Kills Per Round
H2H Data:
Both teams have made changes to their roster since they last faced each other on November 22nd, 2020. TSM won that series 3-1 (13-9 Haven / 13-9 Bind / 6-13 Split / 13-3 Ascent), though it was Drone (who was benched from TSM’s active roster last month) that had the highest ACS on the server with 236 across four maps played. With bang now in the lineup instead of Drone, and LeviathanAG joining TSM as well, they are certainly a much different team now. On the other side, BabyJ has replaced Marved on FaZe and he has looked good taking over the Sentinel role for this team, which also means that ZachaREEE can focus on other agents like Astra.
Projected Maps:
TSM picks Split
FaZe picks Ascent
TSM picks Icebox
FaZe picks Breeze
Haven/Bind is the decider map.
Prediction/Narrative:
TSM wins 3-2. FaZe have impressed with their run through the lower bracket, and I think a lot of people were writing them off after they lost to Rise in the upper bracket, but Rise is solid team, and FaZe did win the eventual rematch. Meanwhile, TSM cruised to their spot in the Grand Final, only dropping one map to Gen.G and one map to T1 to get here. I think that FaZe will win a map or two, but it could be difficult for them to get past TSM in a best-of-five. I think the value is on FaZe as an underdog though, since both teams are playing really well at the moment.
Favorite PrizePicks Play:
Corey (FaZe) - 111.5 Fantasy Score vs. TSM (Maps 1-3)
Last three maps played on Split
07/31 vs. Luminosity (14-12 Win): 23 Kills + 6 Assists = 52 Fantasy Points as Raze
07/30 vs. T1 (13-10 Win): 20 Kills + 7 Assists = 47 Fantasy Points as Raze
07/29 vs. Rise (2-13 Loss): 6 Kills + 2 Assists = 14 Fantasy Points as Raze
Last three maps played on Ascent
07/31 vs. Rise (13-6 Win): 20 Kills + 4 Assists = 44 Fantasy Points as Raze
07/30 vs. T1 (13-10 Win): 17 Kills + 7 Assists = 41 Fantasy Points as Raze
07/29 vs. KC Pioneers (14-12 Win): 24 Kills + 3 Assists = 51 Fantasy Points as Raze
Last three maps played on Icebox
07/02 vs. DarkZero (10-13 Loss): 22 Kills + 6 Assists = 50 Fantasy Points as Reyna
07/01 vs. Frail Males (13-19 Win): 14 Kills + 3 Assists = 31 Fantasy Points as Reyna
04/18 vs. T1 (8-13 Loss): 11 Kills + 2 Assists = 24 Fantasy Points as Raze
Tony’s Play: Over 111.5 Fantasy Score
From a betting perspective, I think that the value is on FaZe as an underdog, and I think that carries over to the PrizePicks projections as well. TSM should be the team to pick two of the first three maps in this series, though we cannot be certain which option will be chosen, and if FaZe get to pick two out of the first three then I would see even more upside here. If FaZe are going to win any maps in this series, it will probably come from their map picks, which should be Ascent to start, and likely Breeze as their second option. Ascent has been a strong map for FaZe, while TSM picked Breeze against Luminosity for the first time yesterday after insta-banning it previously. TSM did win 13-7, but I still see Breeze as being a potential weakness that FaZe could exploit here, at least relative to the rest of TSM’s map pool. TSM are likely to pick Split, where FaZe would start on the Defender side, so at least you would be guaranteed 12 rounds on the favorable side of Split as well. Icebox could very well be the third map of this series as a ‘punish pick’ since FaZe did struggle on that map last time, but corey still top fragged as Reyna. If FaZe do manage to win two of the first three maps, then corey’s total should easily go over. Corey has been the highest rated player on FaZe recently with a 1.25 Rating in the past three months, along with an impressive 0.90 kills per round. He also exclusively plays duelists, so he should be playing pretty aggressively. PrizePicks is basically projecting this total as if FaZe are going to lose two or three of the first maps, and I think FaZe will at least win one, with a strong possibility of winning two. There is simply too much upside here for me to pass up on this over at a 111.5 projection for corey.
bang (TSM) - 110.5 Fantasy Score vs. FaZe (Maps 1-3)
Last three maps played on Split
07/30 vs. T1 (13-4 Win): 14 Kills + 3 Assists = 31 Fantasy Points as Astra
07/30 vs. Gen.G (23-21 Win): 28 Kills + 14 Assists = 70 Fantasy Points as Astra
07/23 vs. Andbox (2-13 Loss): 14 Kills + 7 Assists = 35 Fantasy Points as Astra
Last three maps played on Ascent
07/24 vs. DarkZero (14-12 Win): 24 Kills + 2 Assists = 50 Fantasy Points as Reyna
07/23 vs. Squirtle Squad (13-6 Win): 20 Kills + 7 Assists = 47 Fantasy Points as Reyna
07/22 vs. Team Mystic (13-1 Win): 10 Kills + 6 Assists = 26 Fantasy Points as Reyna
Last three maps played on Icebox
07/30 vs. T1 (8-13 Loss): 16 Kills + 3 Assists = 35 Fantasy Points as Sage
07/29 vs. Gen.G (13-10 Win): 13 Kills + 7 Assists = 33 Fantasy Points as Sage
07/23 vs. DarkZero (13-8 Win): 17 Kills + 6 Assists = 40 Fantasy Points as Sage
Tony’s Play: Under 110.5 Fantasy Score
Bang is coming off of a big day against Luminosity on Saturday but FaZe should prove to be a much tougher opponent. Bang seems to be most comfortable playing the duelist role, but I am only projecting him to play a duelist for one of the first three maps in this series. On Split, bang plays Astra, which is not an agent with much upside for scoring fantasy points due to her utility. He did score 70 fantasy points recently against Gen.G, but that series went to 10x overtime, which is not something we can expect to happen again. Ascent has certainly been a strong map for him on Reyna, but once again the teams that he faced in qualifiers were weaker than FaZe, and I think FaZe will beat TSM on Ascent. Bang plays Sage on Icebox, which is another agent that does not have tremendous upside, so this is not the best possible spot for bang. If FaZe win one or two of the first three maps, then I think bang will really struggle to put up enough fantasy points for this projection of 110.5, which means that I see value with the under. If bang was playing a duelist for all three of the first maps, then I would not like the under as much, but that should not be the case here. This also makes sense as a correlation play with corey’s over.
FAVORITE PLAYS:
Corey (FaZe) - OVER 111.5 Fantasy Score vs. TSM (Maps 1-3)
bang (TSM) - UNDER 110.5 Fantasy Score vs. FaZe (Maps 1-3)