Welcome to the newly launched PrizePicks CS:GO DFS article provided by Fantasy Alarm! In this article, I will provide 2-3 of my favorite prop bets from the Prize Pick CS:GO Projections posted on their app!
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PrizePicks Prop Selections
Spinx (ENCE) - Under 38.5 Kills (Maps 1-2) vs. Vitality - 10:00 A.M. ET
38.5 is a reasonable projection for Spinx on most days, but I think that number is too high for this match-up. Vitality are a scary team when they have time to prepare for their opponent, and the long break has given them exactly that. ENCE did sweep Vitality back in March at ESL Pro League S13 (16-10 Nuke / 16-9 Dust2), but Vitality was struggling at the time, which ultimately led to them replacing RpK with Kyojin about a month later. Still, Spinx only managed 35 kills in that match-up even with his team winning both maps.
Nuke is one of Spinx’s top maps and would probably be his best opportunity for racking up kills if that is the map pick of ENCE. Vitality would start on the more favorable CT side, meaning there is a chance that Vitality get off to a strong start and then win the map quickly into the second half, which would take away potential CT rounds from Spinx. ENCE have been able to win a high percentage of the time on Nuke, but their match history consists of tier two opponents, and Spinx has had some weak performances in losses, like getting 4 Kills against Entropiq (Playing as EPG Family at the time) in a 7-16 loss. Sure, he got 24 kills in a loss against NiP, but that was at a charity tournament, so those results are basically meaningless. Vitality’s map pick is less clear, but that shouldn’t really matter. I expect them to pick Overpass, which has been another solid map for Spinx, but regardless of their pick, this match-up is more difficult than any other opponent that Spinx has faced in months, and Vitality will have a gameplan ready to go for whatever their map pick ends up being. If ENCE was still going up against tier two opponents, then taking Spinx’s over at 38.5 might be reasonable, but this is one of the worst possible spots for him. I think there is a really good chance that he goes under 38.5 against a team that is looking to re-establish themselves as one of the best in the world.
mir (Spirit) - Over 40.5 Kills (Maps 1-2) vs. Astralis - 2:00 P.M. ET
Mir has one of the highest opening duel success rates in tier one CS:GO at 60.3% in the past three months. Sure, that is still not as high as other top players like sh1ro at 67.9% and s1mple at 63.7%, but that is an incredibly high rate for a rifler. He is always active on the map and his 0.77 kills per round in the past three months lead his team. Thus, 40.5 is a number that he can easily hit on most days, especially in a match-up that could be competitive with the odds having this series against Astralis as a coinflip. Spirit won when these teams last faced in February (back when dev1ce was still on Astralis and Bubzkji was on the bench), and I favor them to win on Monday, but the result might not even matter for this total to go over as long as this is a somewhat close series.
The stats show that Spirit is the best team in the world on Dust2 in 2021 with a 1.17 Rating along with a +400 K/D Diff as a team across 30 maps played on Dust2 this year, so that map should be their pick considering Mirage is a permaban for Astralis. Spirit bullied Astralis on Dust2 last time, 16-1, and mir still managed 19 kills in 17 rounds, so a tighter map would likely lead to him having a monster performance. The 16-1 result was an anomaly of course, and we can certainly expect more from Astralis on Dust2 in the future, even if Spirit have a clear edge. You never know what map Astralis might pick since they sometimes have a trick up their sleeve, but Inferno makes sense to me, and mir had 18 Kills with the highest ADR on the server in an 11-16 loss against Astralis last time, so the potential upside is there for him on that map as well. You would honestly have trouble finding stats that do not support taking mir’s over at this projection of 40.5, and he should have no trouble exceeding it as long as his team has a decent showing.