mousesports (World rank: #14) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #8) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: mousesports (-135) | NiP (+105)
Map Handicap: mousesports -1.5 (+220) | NiP +1.5 (-300)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-120)
- This is a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs for ESL Pro League S14.
- mousesports - Rating at event: frozen 1.18 | ropz 1.10 | Bymas 1.09 | dexter 1.03 | acoR 0.96
- mousesports - Rating past three months: ropz 1.17 | frozen 1.10 | Bymas 1.02 | dexter 0.95 | acoR 0.95
- NiP - Rating at event: device 1.12 | hampus 1.05 | Plopski 1.03 | REZ 0.98 | LNZ 0.89
- NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.10 | hampus 1.09 | REZ 1.09 | Plopski 0.95 | LNZ 0.91
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on LAN back in July at the IEM Cologne Play-In Tournament, and NiP won that series 2-0 (16-8 Mirage / 16-11 Ancient). Device led the way with 44 Kills and a 1.35 Rating across two maps.
Map Projections:
NiP removes Vertigo
mousesports removes Overpass
NiP picks Ancient
mousesports picks Nuke
NiP removes Inferno
mousesports removes Dust2
Mirage is left over
mousesports - Key stats on Ancient past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
mousesports - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (6 maps): ropz +23 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Bymas +18 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | frozen -11 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
mousesports - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
mousesports - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): ropz +36 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | frozen +31 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | acoR 0 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
mousesports - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 74.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
mousesports- Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): frozen +21 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Bymas +5 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | ropz +25 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | dexter -3 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Ancient past three months (10 maps): 6-4 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (10 maps): device +25 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | hampus -17 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | REZ +11 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Nuke past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (4 maps): hampus -2 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Plopski +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | REZ +6 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | device +3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | LNZ +3 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Mirage past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 70.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (7 maps): hampus +22 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | device +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | REZ -4 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-0.
Mousesports have been banning Vertigo recently, but that map is permabanned by NiP, which gives mousesports more flexibility in this spot. They could ban Ancient since NiP are likely to pick it, but I think that they will remove Overpass, which is one of their weakest maps and has been a good map for NiP in the past. Ninjas in Pyjamas would then likely pick Ancient if it is available, while mousesports have a few options for themselves. Mouz could pick Inferno, which would be a punish pick against NiP, though the Ninjas did just beat Gambit on that map. They could also pick Mirage, which is another weak map for NiP, and is also the map that Mouz picked last time in this match-up. However, I think that Nuke is the most likely of the three since it has been the best map for mousesports at this event with a 3-0 W/L record. Mirage would then be the logical decider map if Ancient and Nuke are the first two picks since Mouz would probably look to remove Dust2 with their second ban.
I was a bit surprised to see Mousesports favored here to be honest. The odds for Mouz moneyline are nearly identical to their moneyline odds against BIG and Fnatic to close out group stage, and NiP is certainly much better than those two teams at the moment. Mousesports currently have a decent map pool, but they don’t really have a dominant map besides maybe Nuke. I feel pretty confident that NiP will win on their own map pick, but I can’t say the same about Mouz. We got a disappointing performance from Ninjas in Pyjamas against FURIA on Saturday, but they showed up when they needed to with a sweep against Gambit, and I think that we will see them on point once again now that playoffs are here. NiP is still the better team, and this could easily be a 2-0 sweep for them.
Favorite Draftkings Play: REZ ($7,600)
REZ just signed a new contract with the team, and he has had some mediocre performances since then at this event. Still, he is the star rifler for NiP, and when they needed him most on Sunday, he delivered with 44 Kills and a 1.25 Rating across two maps against Gambit, which helped secure their place in the playoffs. This looks like another spot where REZ should crush, and his $7,600 price tag makes him super appealing on this slate. REZ is a lock for me in any NiP stack since he would be crucial to their success against Mouz, and he is underpriced for his role within this team. Device and hampus also look like strong plays, while Plopski and LNZ continue to carry more risk. Plopski has looked much better at this event, but I think that LNZ could have more upside long-term, and his cheaper price tag put him into consideration as well. NiP is my priority for DFS, but Ropz is my favorite play from Mouz by far, and I would even consider him as a one-off paired with two NiP players because his stats can still be impressive even in a loss.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Device ($8,400) | hampus ($6,600) | ropz ($9,000) | Plopski ($5,800) | LNZ ($4,800)
Vitality (World rank: #9) vs. Complexity (World rank: #17) - 1:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-185) | Complexity (+150)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+165) | Complexity +1.5 (-200)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs for ESL Pro League S14.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.36 | misutaaa 1.13 | apEX 1.04 | shox 0.97 | Kyojin 0.95
- Vitality- Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.30 | misutaaa 1.12 | shox 1.01 | apEX 1.00 | Kyojin 0.98
- Complexity - Rating at event: blameF 1.22 | jks 1.05 | poizon 1.05 | es3tag 1.02 | NaToSaphiX 0.90
- Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.21 | poizon 1.05 | es3tag 1.02 | jks 1.01 | NaToSaphiX 0.90
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because es3tag recently replace RUSH while NaToSaphiX is standing in for k0nfig. Prior to the arrival of those two players, the teams played a best of one in June at IEM Summer 2021, and Vitality won 16-8 on Vertigo with everyone on the French side besides misutaaa finishing with at least 20 kills and a 1.26 Rating.
Map Projections:
Complexity removes Inferno
Vitality removes Ancient
Complexity picks Nuke
Vitality picks Overpass
Complexity removes Vertigo
Vitality removes Dust2
Mirage is left over
Vitality - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 71.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +33 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | misutaaa +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 80.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): misutaaa +36 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | ZywOo +41 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | Kyojin +13 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | shox +7 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 77.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): ZywOo +32 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | apEX -10 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Kyojin -4 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | misutaaa -1 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 71.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 22.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): blameF +28 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | poizon +7 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | es3tag (3 maps with coL): -3 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Overpass past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 72.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (4 maps): blameF +27 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | poizon +9 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | jks -5 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | NaToSaphiX (1 map with CoL): +6 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (13 maps): 7-6 W/L record, 34.6% pistol round win percent, 71.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (13 maps): blameF +41 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | jks +7 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-1
Vitality should continue to ban Ancient, while Complexity should do the same with Inferno, so neither of those maps are expected to be seen on Tuesday. Mirage has been Complexity’s favorite map in the past, but they only have a 1-3 W/L record on Mirage with this lineup, so I think that they will pick a map where they have had more recent success, like Nuke. Overpass has been the most played map for Vitality in the past three months, and it is also the map where they have their highest win rate, so it would make sense for them to pick it in this playoff match-up. The remaining maps, Mirage, Vertigo and Dust2 are all maps that these teams have played a bit in the past, so it would not be unreasonable to see any of them played in this series, but Mirage as the decider map would be the clear logical choice in this scenario.
On the first day of ESL Pro League Season 14, I said that Vitality was a scary team when they had time to prepare, and they did not disappoint with a 2-0 sweep against ENCE. I feel the same way about this playoff match-up since Vitality played in the very beginning of the event as part of Group A, so they have had plenty of time to put in work since then. Complexity have outperformed expectations and part of that has been blameF stepping up in a big way as entry fragger, but I still think that they have a lot of holes since they are playing with a new player and a stand-in, and Vitality should be able to exploit their weaknesses. I would consider Vitality to be the favorite on any map that is played, and I could definitely see them winning 2-0, but I am predicting that Complexity maybe win a single map here based on the form that they showed during the group stage. Either way, Vitality is my main focus for DFS.
Favorite Draftkings Play: ZywOo ($9,600)
Don’t overthink it. This is an excellent spot for the HLTV number one rated player in the world for 2019 and 2020. ZywOo is the best player on this slate, and his team is in a good spot to put up some stats against a Complexity roster that is nowhere near 100% right now. ZywOo is a lock for me, and I would recommend putting him at captain as much as possible if you have the salary. His stats are excellent on any map that could be played here, which means that his floor should be extremely high. As for his teammates, misutaaa has stepped up as the number two option for the French in recent months, and he looks like a solid play on Tuesday, especially if Overpass ends up as the map pick for Vitality. Shox is probably slightly overpriced at $7,200, while apEX has had some strong maps at this event and is definitely in consideration at $6,400. Kyojin looked good last time these teams played each other, and I do like taking a risk on him at $5,400 in this match-up. I am not looking to play Complexity on this slate, but blameF has had incredible upside as an entry fragger at this event, while jks seems perhaps underpriced at only $5,600.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
misutaaa ($8,200) | apEX ($6,400) | Kyojin ($5,400) | shox ($7,200) | blameF ($8,000)