Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #9) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-320) | NiP (+250)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (Even) | NiP +1.5 (-125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- Gambit - Rating at event: Hobbit 1.26 | sh1ro 1.23 | Ax1Le 1.17 | nafany 1.15 | interz 0.94
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.20 | Hobbit 1.16 | nafany 1.10 | interz 0.93
- NiP - Rating at event: device 1.15 | hampus 1.01 | Plopski 1.00 | REZ 0.93 | LNZ 0.88
- NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.11 | hampus 1.09 | REZ 1.07 | Plopski 0.95 | LNZ 0.92
H2H Data:
These rosters faced each other on LAN in July at IEM Cologne 2021 and Gambit won 2-1 (10-16 Ancient / 16-5 Inferno / 16-8 Dust2). Sh1ro was the highest rated player with a 1.40 Rating, while nafany had the most kills on the server with 56 across three maps.
Prediction/Narrative:
Ninjas in Pyjamas really hurt their chances of making playoffs with their loss to FURIA on Saturday. Now, they can secure playoffs in two scenarios: 1) they would need to beat Gambit in this series, and they would also need FURIA to lose to Liquid or 2) If they lose here, then they would need FURIA to lose to Liquid, and they would also need Entropiq to beat TeamOne. Gambit have already secured first place in this group, so there isn’t nearly as much at stake for them here. Still, Gambit have looked like the best team in the world again now that we are back to online, and they have only dropped one map at this event so far. I think Gambit will be motivated to gain back their spot as the number one ranked team in the world, and they also are playing with less pressure than NiP, so there are reasons to believe in them despite the disparity in the stakes for these teams. NiP should ban Gambit’s best map, Vertigo, while Gambit permaban Nuke, which is less relevant to this series, so the bans should favor NiP. The Ninjas should also pick Ancient, which is the one map that Gambit could maybe be vulnerable on. Last time these teams played, NiP banned Overpass with their second ban instead of removing Dust2, but I think that they might work the map pool more in their favor by leaving Overpass, since that used to be a dominant map for NiP. Given the maps and the fact that NiP has their back against the wall, I could see them winning a map here, probably Ancient. Still, I think Gambit is still a much better team and they should have this series one way or another. Prediction: Gambit wins 2-1.
Favorite Draftkings Play: nafany ($6,400)
Nafany has looked really solid at this event, and he had the most kills on the server when these teams last faced each other, so I love him at this price. His aggression can sometimes get punished against good teams, but NiP is not exactly the scariest opponent in the world after just losing to FURIA playing with their coach. He has also been excellent on Ancient, which is a map that we can expect NiP to pick in this spot. The pricing on Gambit as a whole seems reasonable today, and I really like Ax1Le, sh1ro and Hobbit as well, with Hobbit being my slight favorite of the three based on pricing, form at this event, and his stats on Ancient. Interz could be a fine play, but he seems pretty risky in this match-up. NiP is not the target for me on Sunday, but REZ, device and hampus are all pretty cheap if you do think that they can pull the upset here.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Hobbit ($7,800) | sh1ro ($8,600) | Ax1Le ($9,400) | interz ($5,400) | REZ ($7,200)
FURIA (World rank: #15) vs. Liquid (World rank: #16) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FURIA (+390) | Liquid (-535)
Map Handicap: FURIA +1.5 (-120) | Liquid -1.5 (-145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+160) | Under 2.5 (-200)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- FURIA - Rating at event: KSCERATO 1.26 | yuurih 1.10 | arT 1.06 | VINI 1.00 | guerri 0.76
- FURIA - Rating past three months: KSCERATO 1.26 | yuurih 1.15 | arT 1.07 | VINI 1.02 | guerri 0.76
- Liquid - Rating at event: EliGE 1.22 | NAF 1.18 | FalleN 1.07 | Grim 1.06 | Stewie2K 0.95
- Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.11 | ELiGE 1.10 | FalleN 1.01 | Grim 1.01 | Stewie2K 0.93
H2H Data:
There is a lot of history between these teams since both played in the North American region back when NA events were a common occurrence. These rosters have never played each other though since junior was still in the FURIA line-up when the teams played in May, instead of guerri standing in. Liquid have won five out of seven maps played against FURIA in 2021.
Prediction/Narrative:
Win and get in: FURIA can secure their spot in the playoffs with a win against Liquid. That may be a tough task for the Brazilians based on the form that Liquid have showed at this event, but I think that these teams are more evenly matched than the odds show. We probably can’t expect another heroic performance from the stand-in coach guerri like we got on Saturday against NiP, but he seems to be solid enough to the point where he is not a major liability for this team. Inferno has been the best map for Liquid at this event with a 3-0 W/L record, 80.9% 5v4 conversion rate, and 30.3% 4v5 conversion rate, but it has also historically been one of FURIA’s best maps. Liquid should not be overly confident if they do decide to pick Inferno, though they’ll likely consider another map in this spot. Liquid have already secured their spot in playoffs, and FURIA could maybe catch them sleeping on one map, but I would be surprised to see the Brazilians find any more success than that. Liquid is still the much better team and is playing really good counter-strike at the moment. Prediction: Liquid wins 2-1.
Favorite Draftkings Play: EliGE ($9,000)
EliGE has been in excellent form at ESL Pro League S14, and he is the highest rated player on Liquid with a 1.22 Rating along with 0.78 kills per round through nine maps played. He should be in for another big day against FURIA, and his $9K price tag feels pretty reasonable given the soft match-up. NAF looks like a strong play as well, but this looks like a slightly better match-up for EliGE and he is $1,000 cheaper, so EliGE is my preference. Grim popped off against TeamOne on Saturday with 49 Kills across two maps, though he is not my favorite play at $8,400. FalleN has had some solid maps at this event and could be in for solid performance against his fellow Brazilians, while Stewie2K has similar upside at an even cheaper price. FURIA is not the target for me here, but I do think that they will keep this series closer than the odds show, and arT could maybe be worth taking a risk on as a GPP longshot at $5,000.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
NAF ($10,000) | Stewie2K ($6,000) | FalleN ($7,400) | Grim ($8,400) | arT ($5,000)
Entropiq (World rank: #18) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #44) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Entropiq (-630) | TeamOne (+385)
Map Handicap: Entropiq -1.5 (-160) | TeamOne +1.5 (+120)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-225)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- Entropiq - Rating at event: Forester 1.01 | El1an 0.98 | NickelBack 0.96 | Krad 0.95 | Lack1 0.85
- Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.25 | Forester 1.10 | NickelBack 1.06 | Krad 1.05 | Lack1 1.00
- TeamOne - Rating at event: malbsMd 1.07 | Maluk3 0.93 | xns 0.91 | pesadelo 0.82 | prt 0.81
- TeamOne - Rating past three months: malbsMd 1.04 | prt 0.97 | Maluk3 0.95 | pesadelo 0.95 | xns 0.90
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did play back when Entropiq was playing under Winstrike, but TeamOne has had a couple of roster changes since then, so the results are not very relevant here. Entropiq (AKA Winstrike) did win 2-0 (16-10 Train / 16-10 Vertigo).
Prediction/Narrative:
Both of these teams are already eliminated from playoffs, so there is not much at this stake for them, though NiP and FURIA may be relying on this result to decide their own playoff spot. TeamOne have lost all eight of their maps played at this event, but they have at least been scrappy. They took NiP and FURIA to overtime on a map, and they took Gambit to 30 rounds on Mirage. Entropiq have only won two maps themselves, but they are certainly the better team, and I think this is a really good match-up for them. Tier two teams have a different playstyle than the top level and TeamOne have been able to use that to their advantage at times, but Entropiq plays as many tier two events as any other team in the world, and they will be ready for anything that TeamOne has in their playbook. I can’t think of a single map that TeamOne would have a chance on against Entropiq. Mirage has been the strongest map for the Brazilians at this event, but Entropiq should be heavy favorites on that map. Entropiq have a 10-5 W/L record on Mirage in the past three months along with an impressive 37.6% 4v5 conversion rate, and they have beaten many teams that are much better than TeamOne. I think this should be an easy series for Entropiq, with the only risk being the lack of incentive for them to win with a playoff spot out of the equation. Prediction: Entropiq wins 2-0.
Favorite Draftkings Play: El1an ($9,600)
El1an is the second most expensive player on this slate, and I think he should even be the most expensive given this match-up. We still haven’t gotten a ‘jaw-dropping’ series from El1an at ESL Pro League S14, but that should change on Sunday. He has a 0.98 Rating at this event playing against some of the top teams in the world, but he has a 1.25 Rating for the year playing against mostly tier two teams, like TeamOne. This is his comfort zone and El1an does not usually disappoint in these spots, so I would lock him in as much as possible. The rest of Entropiq looks good, but nobody stands out too much in particular. There is a chance that we see Mirage, which is another reason for me to like NickelBack, but his $8,000 price tag is much higher than we’ve been used to which makes him less appealing. Forester has been the highest rated player on the team at this event, but there are other options on the slate that I would rather get to. My second favorite on option on Entropiq would likely be Krad since he has had some crucial rounds for Entropiq in the past few days, and he is pretty cheap given the soft match-up. Lack1 also looks like a good value play given his price tag. TeamOne is my least favorite team to target on the slate, and $7,600 feels too much for malbsMd, so I’d rather take a shot on Maluk3 at $4,600 if you wanted to reach and punt on a TeamOne player.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Krad ($6,800) | Forester ($8,800) | NickelBack ($8,000) | Lack1 ($5,800)