Vitality (World rank: #3) vs. Sprout (World rank: #39) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-655) | Sprout (+460)
Round Handicap: Vitality -6.5 (-115) | Sprout +6.5 (-105)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group C of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- Vitality - Rating at event: Kyojin 1.79 | misutaaa 1.65 | shox 1.45 | ZywOo 1.44 | apEX 1.21
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.27 | misutaaa 1.06 | shox 1.02 | apEX 1.00 | Kyojin 0.95
- Sprout - Rating at event: faveN 1.34 | raalz 0.75 | Spiidi 0.75 | kressy 0.75 | -slaxz 0.73
- Sprout - Rating past three months: faveN 1.12 | -slaxz 1.07 | raalz 1.06 | Spiidi 1.00 | kressy 1.00
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced each other in August 2020 and both lineups have changed significantly since then, so I am not putting any weight into that result.
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 16-8 on Vertigo/Nuke.
I won’t waste too much time on this match-up since Vitality are such heavy favorites, and I don’t think Sprout are much of a live underdog here. Vitality are now ranked third in the world rankings, which is the highest they have been since adding Kyojin into their lineup, and they have been playing at such an elite level that top three does make sense for them. Their map pool is also very strong across the board, which means that they can basically guarantee that the map played is one that they are happy with. Vitality outclassed MAD Lions on Wednesday, and the one-sided 16-2 result on Inferno proved that they are not messing around at this event. Sprout got outplayed by OG on Dust2 in a 7-16 loss, in part thanks to Aleksib’s incredible use of HE grenades in this new meta. Sprout started with a 1-14 half on their T side and did not really show any signs of hope in their opening match.
Stacking two from Vitality is my favorite play here. As always, you can basically never go wrong with the HLTV number one ranked player of 2019 & 2020, ZywOo. His stats are world-class in every category, and he should dominate against Sprout, so I would absolutely pay up for him on Draftkings if you have the salary. As for the rest of the team, I would probably want to target the value the most, specifically apEX who plays very aggressively and is only $7,400, but also Kyojin who impressed on day one of the event with a 1.79 Rating and is still only $6,000. Misutaaa and shox should both be fine plays in this great match-up, but neither of the two sticks out to me all too much. FaveN is the one guy that we can maybe trust on Sprout as we saw on Wednesday, but I would recommend completely fading Sprout on this slate.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($10,400) | apEX ($7,400) | Kyojin ($6,000) | misutaaa ($9,400) | shox ($8,400)
OG (World rank: #10) vs. ENCE (World rank: #17) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: OG (-170) | ENCE (+140)
Round Handicap: OG -2.5 (-120) | ENCE +2.5 (Even)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group C of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- OG - Rating at event: valde 1.77 | Aleksib 1.55 | mantuu 1.22 | flameZ 1.03 | niko 0.95
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.12 | flameZ 1.11 | valde 1.09 | Aleksib 0.97 | niko 0.97
- ENCE - Rating at event: doto 1.36 | dycha 1.14 | Spinx 0.97 | hades 0.89 | Snappi 0.82
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.17 | dycha 1.12 | hades 1.12 | doto 1.03 | Snappi 1.03
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced each other in August 2020 and both lineups have changed significantly since then, so I am not putting any weight into that result.
Prediction/Narrative: OG wins 16-12 on Overpass/Mirage.
Aleksib did nearly 1,000 utility damage (mostly from HE grenades) on Dust2 against Sprout on Wednesday, which helped him achieve 118.1 ADR, 19 kills, a 1.55 Rating and, most notably for DFS, 11 assists. The recent update CS:GO allows players to drop their grenades to their teammates, and OG devised a strategy on Dust2 where Aleksib’s teammates would drop HE grenades for him in spawn, and he would throw a grenade and then run back to spawn to pick up another. Aleksib is establishing the new grenade meta before our eyes, and the amount of utility damage he did was ridiculous. For DFS, this can help his fantasy production in the future because it will lead to more assists, and it will also help him get kills on CT side, since the M4A1-S is not a one-shot headshot, but if his enemies have taken some damage from grenades, then he might be able to one tap them. Long story short, OG are way ahead of the meta right now, and I am especially high on them because of that.
ENCE took the full 30 rounds to get past Dignitas in a match-up that perhaps should have been easier for them on paper, but beating f0rest & friberg at a LAN event has historically proven to be difficult. I think that this international ENCE is legit, but they are a bit outmatched against OG, especially if OG have a slight advantage in the meta. OG seem to have the stronger map pool in a best-of-one since they have at least four maps that they should comfortably beat ENCE on, which would be Inferno, Dust2, Overpass and Mirage.
Aleksib is one of my favorite value plays on the entire slate at $5,600, and I wouldn’t mind stacking him with mantuu, flameZ, or valde, but an OG stack is not my top priority on the slate. Niko is pretty inconsistent, and it is difficult for me to really consider him when Aleksib is cheaper with more upside. On the other side, Hades seems a bit too cheap at $6,200, though I would rather focus on Aleksib/OG in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Aleksib ($5,600) | valde ($7,200) | mantuu ($9,800) | flameZ ($8,800) | hades ($6,200)
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #7) vs. FaZe (World rank: #5) - 2:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-125) | FaZe (+105)
Round Handicap: NiP -2.5 (+110) | FaZe +2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group D of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- NiP - Rating at event: device 2.07 | hampus 1.58 | Plopski 1.27 | LNZ 1.19 | REZ 1.15
- NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.14 | hampus 1.11 | REZ 1.10 | Plopski 1.02 | LNZ 0.89
- FaZe - Rating at event: Twistzz 2.00 | rain 1.61 | broky 1.57 | karrigan 1.48 | olofmeister 0.84
- FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.14 | Twistzz 1.12 | rain 1.04 | olofmeister 0.94 | karrigan 0.90
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced each other in March 2021 and both lineups have changed a bit since then, so I am not putting much weight into that result.
Prediction/Narrative: FaZe wins 16-12 on Ancient/Inferno.
Having two players on the server with Ratings of at least two at the event is nearly unheard of, but that’s what happens when both teams dominate their opening matches. NiP spanked Fiend 16-4 on Nuke with device taking over the server with 24 kills, 130.1 ADR and a 2.07 Rating. I’d argue that FaZe’s 16-5 win over Fnatic was even more impressive of a win though, and Twistzz was on fire on that map with 24 Kills, 121.3 ADR and a 2.00 Rating.
When it comes to the Europe RMR standings, Ninjas in Pyjamas are currently in fourth place, which puts them in a comfortable spot for IEM Fall, while FaZe are fighting for their lives as they hope to secure a spot in the major. FaZe sit in 15th place in the RMR standings and would need at least a seventh place finish at this even to earn their way into the biggest tournament in Counter-Strike. Thus, I give FaZe an edge since the stakes are higher for them here. They have also proven to be a force on LAN with their experienced lineup and they came in 3rd-4th place at the only other LAN event of the year, IEM Cologne.
I like playing one or two from FaZe here, and two might make the most sense since the pricing is super reasonable. Twistzz & broky are both way too cheap here, and I like getting to both of them a lot. Rain has been playing really well as of late and I like him at $6,600 a lot too. Olofmeister has struggled recently which does concern me a bit, but he is still probably worth a look at $5,800. Karrigan is not usually the target on FaZe, but even his salary is somewhat appealing at only $4,800. I think device can still be a great play even in a loss with this being on LAN, and if NiP were to win then it would likely be device leading the way. REZ is also reasonably priced at $7,200, so those two would be my top options from NiP, but FaZe are my main focus as this team will want to secure as many wins as possible to give themselves the best chance of qualifying for the Major.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Twistzz ($7,000) | broky ($8,000) | device ($9,000) | rain ($6,600) | olofmeister ($5,800)
Fnatic (World rank: #20) vs. DBL PONEY (World rank: #30) - 2:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-190) | DBL PONEY (+155)
Round Handicap: Fnatic -3.5 (+105) | DBL PONEY +3.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group D of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- Fnatic - Rating at event: mezii 1.03 | Jackinho 0.60 | KRIMZ 0.54 | ALEX 0.53 | Brollan 0.42
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.18 | Brollan 1.03 | Jackinho 0.96 | KRIMZ 0.92 | ALEX 0.92
- DBL PONEY - Rating at event: afro 1.39 | Djoko 1.21 | bodyy 1.16 | Ex3rcice 0.91 | Lucky 0.86
- DBL PONEY - Rating past three months: bodyy 1.12 | Djoko 1.10 | afro 1.09 | Lucky 1.06 | Ex3rcice 1.00
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Fnatic wins 16-14 on Nuke/Vertigo.
Fnatic fell behind 5-10 on their CT side of Mirage against FaZe on Friday, and then they weren’t able to secure a single T round as they lost 5-16. They really struggled against FaZe, but they also ran into a team that is elite on LAN, so I fully expected FaZe to beat them. DBL PONEY managed to win their opening match against SKADE in overtime on Ancient, and afro was unstoppable with 31 kills and a 1.39 Rating. DBL PONEY looked better than Fnatic on Wednesday, but they also had the much easier match-up. DBL PONEY have a realistic chance of qualifying for the major with a decent showing at IEM Fall, while Fnatic would need a miracle run at this event, similar to FaZe. Either way, this match sets up to be a banger with the stakes high on both sides.
I give Fnatic a slight edge in this series, but I think this is closer to a coinflip than the odds show. DBL PONEY have played against some weaker competition in recent months, but their map pool is more well-rounded than Fnatic’s at the moment, and Fnatic have not had a ton of success since mezii & ALEX joined the lineup with a 10-12 W/L record across 22 maps played. To be fair, they weren’t having much success before those players joined either, and mezii has been a star rifler for them so far. I’m picking Fnatic to win since they should be the better team on paper, but I admit that this could be a close one, and the upset potential is certainly there for DBL PONEY.
Mezii continues to frag no matter what the occasion, and he even had 17 kills, 16 deaths and 1.03 Rating on Wednesday despite Fnatic only winning five rounds. His ceiling appears to be really high based on that performance, and he also has tremendous potential upside. He had 27 Kills with a 1.31 Rating last time he played Nuke, and 28 kills with a 1.27 Rating last time he played Vertigo, so either one of those maps should be perfectly fine for him. I’m locking mezii in as a top priority on this slate. The rest of his team does not interest me all too much in particular, besides KRIMZ who has been great on LAN in the past and is cheap at $5,600. DBL PONEY is not my focus here, but I do think they are a live underdog, and afro seems too cheap on $6,000, so he would be a must-play if I was stacking the French side.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
mezii ($9,200) | KRIMZ ($5,600) | afro ($6,000) | jackinho ($7,400) | Brollan ($8,600)
*Favorite Stacks: Vitality, OG, FaZe, Fnatic
*Favorite Captain Plays: ZywOo, mezii, broky, misutaaa, mantuu, shox
*Favorite Value Plays: Twistzz, Aleksib, apEX, KRIMZ, Kyojin, valde, rain