BIG (World rank: #11) vs. mousesports (World rank: #14) - 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (+130) | mousesports (-160)
Round Handicap: BIG +2.5 (-105) | mousesports -2.5 (-115)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group A of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.08 | syrsoN 1.08 | gade 0.99 | k1to 0.98 | tiziaN 0.96
- mousesports - Rating past three months: ropz 1.17 | frozen 1.11 | Bymas 1.03 | dexter 0.95 | acoR 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on August 31st at ESL Pro League Season 14 and mousesports won 2-1 (16-12 Nuke / 7-16 Dust2 / 16-12 Mirage). Frozen was the highest rated player with a 1.29 Rating, while Bymas and tabseN shared the kill lead with 60 across three maps each.
Prediction/Narrative: mousesports wins 16-11 on Mirage.
I have confidence in mousesports based on how they looked last time against BIG. They started off with an excellent 10-5 lead on T side on their map pick, Nuke, which all but secured them the win considering the map is generally CT sided and they only needed to win six more rounds on the more favorable side. They got outplayed on Dust2 despite a heroic performance from Bymas, who had 25 kills and a 1.40 Rating even though mouz only grabbed seven rounds. BIG are one of the best teams in the world on Dust2, and mousesports will surely ban that map in this best-of-one, so we don’t need to worry about that rematch. Mirage was the decider last time, and mousesports had a relentless T side where they refused to let BIG win more than one round in a row. Mousesports also seem to have a more well-rounded map pool at the moment, while BIG play a significant amount of Dust2, so the best-of-one format benefits mousesports since they can comfortably remove BIG’s favorite map without being at risk of a similar punish. BIG still have not found consistent success since replacing XANTARES with gade at the end of July, though they should continue to improve with German comms. I still favor mouz by a decent margin based on current form.
Ropz is the one guy that we can usually trust here, and he looked good on LAN earlier in the year, particularly at the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In Tournament, where he was the third highest rated player with a 1.41 Rating across five maps played. My second favorite play would probably be on the other side with tabseN, who was actually the highest rated player at that Play-In Tournament with a 1.44 Rating across three maps. The M4A1-S is one of tabseN’s favorite weapons, and this will be his first official match on the new update where that gun has been buffed, which just gives even more upside to him at at only $7,400. I also like syrsoN a bit since he is the clear better AWPer on the server compared to acoR, which seems to usually give him extra confidence. I’m not really looking to stack either side, but a mouz stack would be my favorite. I just think that Bymas, Dexter, acoR, and even frozen at times can all be fairly inconsistent, so I am not overly confident in any of those plays.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
Ropz ($9,000) | tabseN ($7,400) | frozen ($8,200) | syrsoN ($8,000) | acoR ($5,400) | gade ($6,600)
Complexity (World rank: #16) vs. Sinners (World rank: #21) - 2:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-220) | Sinners (+180)
Round Handicap: Complexity -3.5 (-115) | Sinners +3.5 (-105)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group B of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.18 | poizon 1.08 | es3tag 1.06 | jks 1.01 | coldzera 0.97
- Sinners - Rating past three months: oskar 1.18 | NEOFRAG 1.16 | SHOCK 1.06 | ZEDKO 1.01 | beastik 0.99
H2H Data:
- These teams faced each other in August when NaToSaphiX was standing in rather than coldzera at ESL Pro League S14, and Complexity swept 2-0 (16-12 Vertigo / 16-14 Nuke). BlameF topped the leaderboards with a 1.38 Rating across two maps, while poizon had the most kills with 48.
Prediction/Narrative: Sinners win 16-14 on Mirage.
If there is one upset on this slate, then I think it would be right here with the team from the Czech Republic. Complexity fell flat at BLAST Premier Fall Groups, which was coldzera’s debut in this lineup, and their last map played was a 16-0 loss to FaZe on Ancient. I’m just not sold on this roster with coldzera in the mix based on the small sample size that we have seen so far, and I definitely think that a solid opponent such as Sinners could easily pull the upset here. Sinners typically play against weaker competition in the tier two scene, but they have won 26 of their 37 maps played in the past month, and they have a winning record on every map besides Dust2. The strength of Sinners’ map pool certainly gives them an advantage against a team that has had limited practice with their newest member. I think this could be a very tight map, so I’ll happily take the underdog at these odds.
Oskar was in the HLTV Top 20 in 2017 & 2018, so nowadays he is essentially ‘smurfing’ in tier two since he can still play at such a high level. He has a 1.11 Rating across the 405 maps that he has played on LAN in his career, and his experience could be beneficial, though he is not still the same player from before at his current age of 30 years old. I have a lot of faith in oskar in the spot, so he is my favorite play on Draftkings from this series. The rest of Sinners are pretty risky, though NEOFRAG has tremendous potential upside. You could certainly look to some options on Complexity too since they are heavy moneyline favorites. BlameF has been providing additional upside as an entry fragger since k0nfig left the lineup, and poizon has also shown his skill entrying with a rifle on a few recent occasions, so both spend-up options do seem reasonable.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
oskar ($7,600) | blameF ($9,400) | poizon ($8,800) | NEOFRAG ($6,800) | jks ($6,800) | SHOCK ($6,200)
Astralis (World rank: #9) vs. Endpoint (World rank: #29) - 2:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-630) | Endpoint (+445)
Round Handicap: Astralis -6.5 (-110) | Endpoint +6.5 (-110)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group B of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- Astralis - Rating past three months: dupreeh 1.07 | Magisk 1.06 | Xyp9x 1.02 | Lucky 1.01 | Bubzkji 0.97
- Endpoint - Rating past three months: CRUC1AL 1.12 | Thomas 1.09 | Surreal 1.02 | MiGHTYMAX 0.95 | Allan N/A
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Both lineups have changed since the teams last met in March at ESL Pro League S13.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 16-8 on Overpass.
The big news to start is that BOROS was unable to travel with Endpoint and he cannot compete at this event, so the team's new coach, Allan, was announced as a stand-in. Several hours later, ESL sent out an urgent message to teams that they could add a substitute player other than their coach to the roster. Perhaps Endpoint find a new fifth, which means that Allan might not end up playing, but that shouldn’t matter much here anyways since Allan probably would have been a terrible DFS play.
With Gla1ve on paternity leave, Astralis will continue with Xyp9x back in the lineup for now. They have looked decent with Magisk as the IGL, and this temporary new role certainly did not take away from his fragging with a 1.16 Rating at BLAST Premier Fall Groups. Astralis also tend to play better on LAN, and yet some people were still surprised to see them finish 3rd-4th at IEM Cologne earlier in the year. Xyp9x, Magisk, dupreeh & Bubzkji all had a rating of at least one at that event, while Lucky had not yet joined the team. This is such an easy match-up for Astralis and they should take care of business here. I like stacking two from Astralis with magisk being my favorite based on how he looked at the last event, and I also really like Bubzkji based on pricing. Dupreeh seems to be priced a bit too expensive, while Xyp9x and Lucky both look like excellent options. Nobody interests me on Endpoint given the tough match-up, but CRUC1AL would probably be my favorite at $5,800 since he is the primary AWPer and could carve out some decent stats even in a loss.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
magisk ($9,200) | Bubzkji ($6,600) | Xyp9x ($8,400) | Lucky ($7,200) | dupreeh ($10,000)
Heroic (World rank: #6) vs. Movistar Riders (World rank: #42) - 2:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-610) | Movistar Riders (-430)
Round Handicap: Heroic -6.5 (-120) | Movistar Riders +6.5 (Even)
- This is a best-of-one on LAN for Group B of IEM Fall 2021 Europe.
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.10 | TeSeS 1.09 | cadiaN 1.07 | refrezh 1.06 | sjuush 1.06
- Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.18 | alex 1.14 | mopoz 1.11 | DeathZz 1.06 | dav1g 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 16-12 on Inferno.
Heroic have been called ‘onliners’ in the past since they rose to number one in the world rankings during the online pandemic era of Counter-Strike, so LAN is not necessarily an advantage for them as it is for their Danish counterparts, Astralis. They had a somewhat disappointing showing at IEM Cologne earlier in the year, but they did run into Astralis & FaZe, who are two excellent LAN teams, so I am willing to cut them some slack there. I also think that this Movistar Riders roster is better than the odds give them credit for. Still, Heroic should find a way to win with their talent, though this might end up as a tighter map than people might expect.
Refrezh struggled on LAN at IEM Cologne with a 0.82 Rating across 10 maps played, but he has been a star for Heroic as of late, and he would be hard to ignore on this slate at only $7,400. I would rather play sjuush at $1,000 cheaper though, especially since sjuush looked better on LAN and had a 1.06 Rating across those same 10 maps. Refrezh has a lot of freedom to make plays in his role with the team, which can make him a high risk and high reward DFS play, while sjuush should be a consistent solid value. TeSeS and cadiaN should also smash here, and I think that TeSeS could end up as one of the highest scorers on the slate. Stavn is just too expensive to be play here in my opinion, especially now that we are on LAN. Stacking two from Heroic would be my preferred play, and a close map would not necessarily be a bad thing for DFS purposes, as long as we pick the right guys. I think that Movistar Riders can win a few rounds at least, and SunPayus is in play for me. This is obviously a tough spot for him, but his upside with the AWP is sufficient enough to win you a slate on his good days.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
TeSeS ($9,600) | cadiaN ($8,600) | sjuush ($6,400) | refrezh ($7,400) | SunPayus ($6,600)