Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. OG (World rank: #9) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-250) | OG (+200)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+120) | OG +1.5 (-145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021 - Group C.
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.39 | electronic 1.16 | b1t 1.12 | Perfecto 1.05 | Boombl4 0.98
- OG - Rating past three months: flameZ 1.16 | mantuu 1.14 | valde 1.09 | Aleksib 0.99 | niko 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in October 2020, and both lineups have changed since.
Map Projections:
OG removes Nuke
NAVI removes Vertigo
OG picks Inferno
NAVI picks Mirage
OG removes Ancient
NAVI removes Overpass
Dust2 is left over
NAVI - Key stats on Inferno past three months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 54.5% pistol round win percent, 77.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (11 maps): s1mple +86 K/D Diff, 1.40 Rating | electronic +47 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | b1t +25 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 12-2 W/L record, 53.6% pistol round win percent, 75.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.7 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): s1mple +109 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | electronic +45 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | b1t +18 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Boombl4 -2 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Perfecto +6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (11 maps): 6-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 74.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (11 maps): s1mple +83 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | electronic +20 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | b1t +13 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | Perfecto +3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
OG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 83.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): flameZ +16 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | mantuu +42 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | valde +17 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Aleksib -1 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
OG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): valde +52 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | flameZ +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | mantuu +27 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
OG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 83.3% pistol round win percent, 83.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): niko +21 K/D Diff, 1.45 Rating | flameZ +19 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | valde +18 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | mantuu +5 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.
NAVI have been the undisputed best team in the world for a couple of months now. This event is surely not the most important one on their calendar, but they are in such good form that motivation shouldn’t be much of a concern. OG had an excellent showing at ESL Pro League Season 14, but they were playing at bootcamp for that event, and they are playing from home for BLAST Premier Fall Groups. I would still favor NAVI in this series even if OG were at bootcamp, but the fact that they are playing from home makes me like NAVI even more, since a majority of OG's success has come in a bootcamp environment. If OG do work the map pool into their favor by banning a map like Nuke, then I do think they can put up a strong fight and maybe even take a map, like Inferno. Still, NAVI just looks too good to bet against at the moment, and ultimately, I would consider NAVI a favorite on any map that is played.
Both of these teams typically ban Vertigo, but I think that OG will force NAVI’s hand by banning something else, and Nuke would make a lot of sense considering NAVI is the undisputed best team in the world on Nuke by all statistical measures. NAVI have won 12 in a row on Nuke, including recent wins over Heroic & Vitality, while OG have not had much success on that map, so this ban would appear to be their best move. Inferno makes the most sense as OG’s map pick, while Mirage might be NAVI’s best option. NAVI would prefer to pick Nuke, but OG might ban it, though Ancient would be another option for them if OG leave that open. I think that OG are willing to float through Ancient in this spot, but NAVI probably don’t want to be the first team to face them on that map given the lack of anti-stratting. OG have been solid on Mirage, but NAVI have a 12-2 W/L record in the past months and would be perfectly fine picking that map. Dust2, or maybe even Ancient, would be the logical decider map in this scenario.
For DFS, s1mple is typically a ‘free square’ on two series slates, and I am treating him as such on Friday. His incredible 1.39 Rating in the past three months is not a typo, as he is well on his way to being named the HLTV number one player of 2021. I think that s1mple is a lock even at this expensive price tag, and I would even try to put him at captain if possible. The other main sources of firepower for NAVI, electronic & b1t, are both cheap enough that I would definitely consider stacking both of them alongside s1mple. You would need to use up a large portion of your salary, but there is value in the next series, and you would be feeling pretty good with all three of them in your lineup. I like Perfecto as a value play here, while Boombl4 is a punt play that I would avoid in this spot. OG are not a priority for me in such a brutal match-up, but they are not completely out of this series, and mantuu could maybe end up as a decent play either way since his floor is typically pretty high even in losses as the main AWPer.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
s1mple ($10,200) | electronic ($8,600) | b1t ($7,800) | Perfecto ($6,800) | mantuu ($6,400)
FaZe (World rank: #6) vs. Complexity (World rank: #16) - 2:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-130) | Complexity (+105)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+215) | Complexity +1.5 (-270)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021 - Group C.
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.16 | broky 1.11 | rain 1.03 | olofmeister 0.95 | karrigan 0.92
- Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.20 | poizon 1.08 | es3tag 1.03 | jks 1.00 | coldzera N/A
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams played each other in July, but k0nfig and RUSH were still in the complexity lineup instead of coldzera & es3tag.
Map Projections:
Complexity removes Inferno
FaZe removes Vertigo
Complexity picks Nuke
FaZe picks Ancient
Complexity removes Dust2
FaZe removes Overpass
Mirage is left over
FaZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 77.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): Twistzz +24 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | broky +41 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | rain -1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 68.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): rain +2 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | broky +10 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Twistzz +3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 85.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (10 maps): Twistzz +22 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | broky +40 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | olofmeister +4 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 73.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): blameF +24 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | poizon +6 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | jks +5 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating| es3tag (3 maps with coL) -3 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Ancient past three months (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 53.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 16.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (1 map): es3tag +4 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | blameF +1 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (11 maps): 6-5 W/L record, 27.3% pistol round win percent, 71.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (11 maps): blameF +38 K/D Diff, 125 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: FaZe wins 2-1.
Coldzera revenge game? The Brazilian rifler signed a temporary deal with Complexity earlier this month, and his debut comes against his former team, FaZe. The last official match that coldzera played was back in May, so it’s been a while since we've seen him play. 2021 has been the worst statistical year of coldzera's career, and he is certainly not still the same player that HLTV ranked number one in 2016 & 2017, and won two Major MVP awards in 2016. However, I do think that coldzera can still produce in the right system. Back on Luminosity/SK Gaming, coldzera was the star rifler, and part of their team's success came from him ‘baiting’ TACO, because coldzera was able to make the hero plays if he had enough info. I think that he will be eager to prove that he can still play at a high level, especially considering that he is only on a temporary contract, even with k0nfig expected to leave Complexity for Astralis once his wrist heals. Combine that with the revenge narrative against FaZe, and coldzera becomes a very interesting option at only $4,800 on Draftkings. It is a risk, but I like taking a shot on him while his price is this low.
Inferno & Vertigo will very likely be the first two maps banned here. Complexity’s map pick is up in the air with coldzera entering the lineup, but we’ve seen them pick Nuke a few times since es3tag has joined the lineup, and we know that map has been one of es3tag's best in the past. I think that Nuke makes the most sense as their choice in this spot. FaZe have been excellent on Mirage as of late, but that map used to be Complexity’s go-to map pick, and it might be floated through as the decider. In that case, Ancient would be a strong pick for FaZe since they have had solid results on it with wins against Heroic & Gambit, while we haven’t seen much at all from Complexity on it, especially with k0nfig out of the lineup.
As for the result of this match, I think that it will be very back-and-forth, but I do have to give the edge to FaZe. Complexity will not be at 100% with this being coldzera’s first match with the team, but we saw that they are able to overcome that based on the success that they had with NaToSaphiX standing in at ESL Pro League S14. I give Complexity enough credit to win one map, and possibly even win the series if Mirage does end up as the decider map, but I expect FaZe to come out on top in a close one. I think that exposure to both teams for DFS would be my preference.
Broky at $7,600 is just too cheap for the young AWPer in a fine match-up, and he is my favorite play here. His floor performance should be decent if Complexity do manage to pull the upset, and his ceiling should be one of the highest on the slate otherwise. BlameF said on his Twitch stream on Thursday that he will continue to do a majority of the entry fragging, and we saw him put up impressive stats at ESL Pro League S14 in the same role. Entry fragging should continue to give him tremendous upside for DFS, which makes him one of my top plays on the slate as well. I think that stacking broky & blameF together is a great idea in the event that this series is a close one. Both of them simply look like priority targets at their prices. I already mentioned above that I love the idea of coldzera as a value play, even though I favor FaZe in this series. His price tag is just too cheap in his debut, and it will likely go up on Saturday. Twistzz should continue to be solid, but there are maybe some other spend-up options that I would rather use salary on. Rain & es3tag look like good plays based on projected maps, while olofmeister & poizon are riskier plays with potential upside. Jks & karrigan would be my least favorite option from each respective team, but they don’t look terrible at these cheap prices. Basically, there are a lot of guys that could be in play here, so I would look for my value plays from this match-up.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):
broky ($7,600) | blameF ($8,200) | coldzera ($4,800) | Twistzz ($9,200) | rain ($7,000) | es3tag ($6,600) | olofmeister ($6,200) | poizon ($7,400)