G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #10) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (Even) | NiP (-130)
Map Handicap: G2 +1.5 (-270) | NiP -1.5 (+220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group B upper bracket final of Blast Premier Falls Groups 2021.
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.75 | AmaNEk 1.44 | nexa 1.14 | huNter- 1.05 | JaCkz 0.82
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.22 | huNter- 1.03 | AmaNEk 0.97 | nexa 0.94 | JaCkz 0.89
- NiP - Rating at event: REZ 1.76 | Plopski 1.23 | hampus 1.15 | device 1.03 | LNZ 1.02
- NiP - Rating past three months: REZ 1.13 | hampus 1.11 | device 1.09 | Plopski 0.99 | LNZ 0.88
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other in June at the BLAST Premier Spring Final and G2 won 2-1 (16-11 Dust2 / 13-16 Nuke / 19-17 Inferno). NiKo finished with 72 kills and a 1.19 Rating across three maps, while his cousin huNter- was right there with him at the top of the leaderboards with 74 kills and a 1.16 Rating. LNZ finished as the highest rated player on NiP with a 1.10 Rating along with 64 kills.
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-1.
Some people might be surprised to see NiP favored over G2, but I think that it makes sense here. One thing to note is that G2 is not playing from bootcamp, while the entire NiP roster is on site playing together in the same room, which should give an advantage to the Ninjas, though they are temporarily without their coach, THREAT. G2’s win on Monday was nothing to really get excited about given the current state of MIBR’s roster, and prior to that they went 0-5 at ESL Pro League S14. You would have hoped that the easy win over MIBR would be a good confidence builder for the team, but JaCkz has been a liability for G2, and he finished with a measly 19 kills, 49.2 ADR and 0.82 Rating across two maps on Monday. Sure, he was getting space for the team and allowing for NiKo to get trade kills, but he surely would have hoped for a better stat line than that. I could definitely see G2 making a roster change if they continue to fall flat of expectations, and JaCkz would likely be the first one to go.
We can expect to see G2 remove Overpass and NiP remove Vertigo, per usual. NiP picked Dust2 last time they played G2, but they have since established Ancient as a strong map for themselves, so I assume that will be their preferred choice. Inferno has been G2’s best map, though they may decide to float it through as the decider map and pick a map like Nuke as they did last time in this spot. I think that a lot of the map pool could go either way, but NiP should have a big advantage on Ancient, where we haven’t seen much from G2 at all. With that in mind, I favor NiP to win the series since the rest of the maps are essentially coinflips. Both of these teams finished with a 1.24 Rating through the first day of this event, but NiP’s result is clearly more impressive given the opponent that they faced. I think that NiP is just in better form right now while G2 may be nearing a roster move if they continue to struggle.
I would much rather play NiP on Draftkings, though their pricing is much higher than that of the G2 players which makes roster construction a bit tricky. Device didn’t need to do much on Monday, and he was missing some shots that he normally hits, but he should be in for a monster performance on Tuesday given the fact that AmaNEk is the primary AWPer for G2 and he is not much of an AWPing presence compared to device. I think that device should absolutely pop off in this spot. REZ and hampus look like great plays once again, but the pricing just makes it tough to get to all of the studs here. Plopski & LNZ are certainly riskier. Plopski has had better form than LNZ as of late, but LNZ does still have plenty of potential upside and he did also play really well when these teams last met. Still, I would rather get to the value on NiP than play anyone on G2, but NiKo and huNter- are definitely cheap enough to consider, especially NiKo who continues to be outstanding.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
device ($9,000) | REZ ($9,800) | hampus ($8,000) | LNZ ($5,600) | Plopski ($6,400) | NiKo ($8,200) | huNter- ($7,200)
BIG (World rank: #13) vs. MIBR (World rank: #49) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (-1475) | MIBR (+875)
Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (-280) | MIBR +1.5 (+220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+260) | Under 2.5 (-330)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group B lower bracket final of Blast Premier Falls Groups 2021.
- BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 0.95 | tabseN 0.94 | tiziaN 0.85 | k1to 0.85 | gade 0.84
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.09 | syrsoN 1.08 | gade 0.99 | k1to 0.95 | tiziaN 0.94
- MIBR - Rating at event: shz 0.98 | yel 0.88 | exit 0.87 | nak 0.65 | brnz4n 0.64
- MIBR - Rating past three months: yel 1.01 | exit 1.01 | shz 0.96 | nak 0.65 | brnz4n 0.65
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 2-0.
The odds tell the story here. This struggling MIBR roster is still missing chelo & boltz, which means BIG should make quick work of the Brazilians. BIG will likely remove Ancient to start, and the rest of the map pool is heavily in their favor from there. Mirage could be the map pick for MIBR once again, and BIG have played that map twice with gade in the lineup. They lost in a close map to mousesports, while they beat NAVI with an ‘in-your-face’ style of Counter-Strike. I’d expect BIG to play a similar style against MIBR as they showed against NAVI, and tabseN dominated last time with 25 kills, 137.5 ADR and a 1.76 Rating, while SyrsoN was also excellent with 24 kills, 95.1 ADR, and a 1.45 Rating. TiziaN also really impressed with a 1.17 Rating and 87% KAST, so all three of those players are on my radar for this match-up. MIBR banned Dust2 against G2 on Monday, so BIG might not be able to pick their favorite map, which means they may go for something like Nuke or Vertigo. BIG might get creative with the map pool given this soft match-up, but it shouldn’t matter which map they pick since they should have a huge advantage on it regardless.
A three stack from BIG is a no brainer here. TabseN is the most expensive player on the slate at $10,200, but I do think that he should be a priority and I would fit him into your lineup as much as possible. TiziaN is not usually a priority for me on the BIG side of things, but this soft match-up is the ideal time to target him, and I also give him an extra bump with Mirage as a possible map. I’m not at all interested in playing anyone on MIBR, but brnz4n would probably be my favorite risk to take since the young player’s salary is ridiculously cheap.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
tabseN ($10,200) | tiziaN ($7,000) | syrsoN ($9,400) | k1to ($8,600) | gade ($7,600)