G2 (World rank: #3) vs. MIBR (World rank: #48) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-1500) | MIBR (+875)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (-290) | MIBR +1.5 (+230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+265) | Under 2.5 (-340)
- This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Blast Premier Falls Groups 2021 - Group B.
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.19 | huNter- 1.03 | AmaNEk 0.94 | nexa 0.93 | JaCkz 0.88
- MIBR - Rating past three months: yel 1.02 | exit 1.01 | shz 0.96 | brnz4n 0.68 | nak N/A
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
MIBR removes Nuke
G2 removes Overpass
MIBR picks Mirage
G2 picks Inferno
MIBR removes Dust2
G2 removes Ancient
Vertigo is left over
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 2-7 W/L record, 27.8% pistol round win percent, 73.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 21.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): NiKo +56 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | huNter- +8 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 90.0% pistol round win percent, 82.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): huNter- +8 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | AmaNEk +9 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | NiKo +8 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 18.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): NiKo +3 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | huNter- +7 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
MIBR - Key stats on Mirage past three months (10 maps): 5-5 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 69.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
MIBR - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (10 maps): yel +25 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | exit +18 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
MIBR - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 80.0% pistol round win percent, 65.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
MIBR - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): exit +1 K/D Diff, 0.99 Rating
MIBR - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 70.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
MIBR - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (7 maps): yel -3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | exit -17 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | shz -6 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
* Note: brnz4n & nak have not played a match for MIBR yet and were not included in this data set.
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-0.
MIBR are without their two highest rated players, chelo & boltz, though I’m not sure if that even matters here. Boltz was reportedly unable to travel with the team after testing positive for COVID-19, then chelo was reported to be in a car accident and is now recovering from injuries. In the meantime, brnz4n will be substituting from the MIBR Academy roster that he is newly part of, and nak, a strategic coach for MIBR, will also stand-in. Long story short, this struggling MIBR roster looks even worse than normal. G2 came out flat at ESL Pro League Season 14 with a pathetic 0-5 showing, but this match-up is as soft as it gets for them. They would still be heavily favorite even if MIBR was at full strength, so this should be even easier for them with chelo & boltz on the bench for the time being.
Nuke & Overpass are the typical initial bans for these teams, and we can expect that to stay the same on Monday. Mirage has been MIBR’s most played in the past three months, and they will likely pick it here, especially since G2 have recently struggled on that map, currently on a six map losing streak. However, there are some ‘good losses’ mixed into that losing streak, including losing 14-16 against two of the best Mirage teams in world, forZe & NAVI. G2 also had won seven out of eight on that map prior to this losing streak, so they should have no trouble on Mirage if it is played. Inferno has been the clear best map for G2, though it’s possible that they could pick something else since they will feel confident on any map against this weak MIBR roster. I would heavily favor on G2 on every map in the pool, despite their recent string of poor results.
For DFS, stacking G2 is the only viable option here that I see. I think that targeting the value in this match-up makes sense because G2 will likely ‘speed run’ these maps, and everyone on the team should end with solid stats in that case. NiKo & huNter- are strong plays as always but fitting both into your lineup probably doesn’t make sense in the context of this slate. I would rather take the risk on some of the value plays here, especially nexa, who has had some good showings on Mirage, and used to be a significant source of firepower for this team in 2020. I think that AmaNEk & jaCkz are both in play here as well, and jaCkz is a high risk, high reward value option as an entry fragger with a history of inconsistent results. Yel & exit would be the two players to target on MIBR I suppose, but ultimately, I think that playing any of the Brazilians would be a silly idea in this brutal match-up.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
nexa ($7,400) | NiKo ($10,000) | huNter- ($9,000) | AmaNEk ($8,400) | jaCkz ($5,800)
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #9) vs. BIG (World rank: #13) - 2:45 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-130) | BIG (+105)
Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (+210) | BIG +1.5 (-265)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Blast Premier Falls Groups 2021 - Group B.
- NiP - Rating past three months: hampus 1.11 | device 1.10 | REZ 1.10 | Plopski 0.98 | LNZ 0.88
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.10 | syrsoN 1.08 | gade 1.02 | k1to 0.95 | tiziaN 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because XANTARES was still on BIG instead of gade when the teams played in June at the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021. NiP won that series 2-0 (16-10 Dust2 / 16-12 Inferno) and REZ led the way with 52 kills and a 1.45 Rating.
Map Projections:
BIG removes Ancient
NiP removes Vertigo
BIG picks Dust2
NiP picks Overpass
BIG removes Nuke
NiP removes Mirage
Inferno is left over
NiP - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 76.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 20.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): hampus -4 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | device -3 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Overpass past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (4 maps): device +21 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | REZ +17 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | hampus 0 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Plopski +1 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 80.0% pistol round win percent, 73.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): hampus +2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 76.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): tabseN +17 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | syrsoN +22 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | gade +12 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | k1to -3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | tiziaN -7 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Overpass past three months (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 70.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 18.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (1 map): syrsoN +4 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | k1to +2 K/D Diff, 0.90 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 0-2 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 52.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): N/A
*Note: These stats for BIG only include the 14 maps with gade in the lineup that have been played so far.
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-1.
Ninjas in Pyjamas are temporarily without their coach, THREAT, for this event due to a temporary personal circumstance. This means that Jonas Gundersen, the Chief Operating Officer for NiP, and former CS 1.6 player known as calc, will be filling in as their coach on Monday. In terms of impact, I don’t expect this to matter all that much, though we do often see THREAT bringing the team together during timeouts, and his leadership could be sorely missed in some late-map situations. As for BIG, they haven’t been able to establish much success since adding gade to the roster. Their 2-0 sweep against NAVI has begun to look more and more like a fluke considering Evil Geniuses are the only other team that they have beaten thus far. Still, they’ve certainly shown potential, and their transition to communicating in German could prove to be more beneficial in time.
BIG will likely remove Ancient, especially since NiP have prioritized that map, while NiP should stick with banning Vertigo. Dust2 continues to be BIG’s favorite map, and they should pick it in this spot. Overpass makes the most sense for the Ninjas here if it is available, as this has been a good map for them historically while it has always been one of BIG’s least played maps. The decider map in this scenario would probably come down to Inferno or Mirage, and I think that Inferno makes the most sense given the form that these teams have shown on that map in the past.
When BIG played NiP on Dust2 in May at Flashpoint 3, they got off to a dominant 14-1 start, though it then took them a few rounds to close out the map, so the result looked less one-sided on paper as a 16-10 victory for BIG. However, NiP were ready the next time these teams met on Dust2, and that time they beat the Germans 16-10. Ninjas in Pyjamas have clearly put in work to improve on Dust2, but I still have to give a decent edge to BIG on that map against most teams, even NiP. The rest of the map pool should be in the favor of NiP though, so I have NiP winning 2-1.
On Draftkings, I think that device needs to be the priority at only $8,000 given the match-up and projected maps. I also think that REZ & hampus look like excellent plays, while Plopski and LNZ are much riskier. I’d rather get to jaCkz in the first match-up than get to Plopski or LNZ, but if I was playing either of the two then LNZ would be my preference based on pricing. Some exposure to BIG might make sense given the fact that this series could be back and forth, but tabseN just seems too expensive at $8,800, though he has been elite on Dust2. SyrsoN & gade are a bit more interesting at their prices, and syrsoN would be my favorite one-off from BIG. K1to is a punt play that I don’t mind taking in a BIG stack given the form that he has shown on Overpass. TiziaN is almost always a complete fade for me given his limited upside.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
device ($8,000) | REZ ($9,400) | hampus ($7,000) | syrsoN ($7,600) | LNZ ($5,200) | gade ($6,600) | tabseN ($8,800)