FURIA (World rank: #15) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #44) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FURIA (-250) | TeamOne (+200)
Map Handicap: FURIA -1.5 (+125) | TeamOne +1.5 (-150)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- FURIA - Rating at event: KSCERATO 1.26 | arT 1.11 | yuurih 0.90 | guerri 0.89 | VINI 0.86
- FURIA - Rating past three months: KSCERATO 1.26 | yuurih 1.14 | arT 1.07 | VINI 1.02 | guerri 0.89
- TeamOne - Rating at event: malbsMd 1.22 | maluk3 0.91 | pesadelo 0.91 | xns 0.86 | prt 0.57
- TeamOne - Rating past three months: malbsMd 1.07 | prt 1.00 | pesadelo 0.99 | Maluk3 0.96 | xns 0.90
H2H Data:
- These teams faced each other at ESL Pro League S13 back in March, and FURIA won the series 2-0 (16-12 Train / 16-13 Mirage), though junior was still playing for FURIA instead of their coach, guerri, and skullz was still on TeamOne instead of xns. VINI had the most kills on the server with 47 across two maps, while arT was the highest rated player with a 1.27 Rating.
Map Projections:
TeamOne removes Vertigo
FURIA removes Dust2
TeamOne picks Nuke
FURIA picks Inferno
TeamOne removes Ancient
FURIA removes Overpass
Mirage is left over
FURIA - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FURIA - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): KSCERATO +43 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | yuurih +36 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | VINI +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
FURIA - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FURIA - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): KSCERATO +16 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | VINI +20 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | yuurih +8 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
FURIA - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 21.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FURIA - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): arT +44 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | KSCERATO +39 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | yuurih +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
TeamOne - Key stats on Nuke past three months (13 maps): 6-7 W/L record, 53.8% pistol round win percent, 70.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
TeamOne - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (13 maps): maluk3 -9 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | malbsMd -4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | prt -13 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
TeamOne - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 69.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
TeamOne - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): prt +7 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | malbsMd -1 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | pesadelo -1 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
TeamOne - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 73.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
TeamOne - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): malbsMd +60 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | maluk3 +18 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | pesadelo +1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
FURIA wins 2-0. FURIA should handle TeamOne even with their coach in the lineup, but this is a Brazilian derby which means that these teams really know how each other plays, and the action on the server could even look ‘sloppy’ to the naked eye. FURIA also tends to play to the level of their opponent, which means that they are usually a live underdog, but also means that they are a team I consider fading when they are a heavy favorite. TeamOne did have a decent showing against Gambit, but it felt like Gambit was in control at all times even when TeamOne had a big lead on Mirage. All things considered, I still am backing FURIA to sweep here since I think the talent disparity will decide the match, especially if guerri can continue to be a solid fill-in. FURIA should be able to pick Inferno, which has been their best map in the past, though they might consider picking Ancient again in this spot. Either way, I think that they will win their map pick with ease. TeamOne’s most played map with this roster has been Nuke and they have been decent on that map, but FURIA are solid on Nuke too and I would give FURIA an edge there as well, albeit a small edge compared to Inferno.
Favorite Draftkings Play: VINI ($5,400)
VINI is the cheapest member of FURIA on Wednesday, and this looks like a great spot for him and for the team. His nickname is ‘VIN-ferno’ because he is the master of Inferno, and there is a good chance that we see that map in this series. Nuke is the most likely map pick for TeamOne, and VINI has had some strong performances on that map recently too. His price also just seems really low considering the soft match-up, and he should certainly be more expensive than guerri at the very least. Regardless, VINI looks like an excellent value play here. I also think the rest of FURIA looks great, besides guerri who is way overpriced at $8,800. The Draftkings pricing algorithm was busted on that one, and I guarantee that he will be priced down asap. MalbsMd would be the one to target from TeamOne, but FURIA is my focus in this spot.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
KSCERATO ($9,400) | yuurih ($7,600) | arT ($6,400) | malbsMd ($7,800)
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #9) vs. Entropiq (World rank: #18) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NIP (-175) | Entropiq (+145)
Map Handicap: NIP -1.5 (+175) | Entropiq +1.5 (-215)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- NIP - Rating at event: device 1.19 | REZ 0.80 | Plopski 0.80 | hampus 0.77 | LNZ 0.76
- NIP - Rating past three months: REZ 1.11 | device 1.09 | hampus 1.08 | Plopski 0.93 | LNZ 0.92
- Entropiq - Rating at event: Forester 1.27 | Lack1 1.06 | El1an 1.00 | Krad 0.88 | NickelBack 0.84
- Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.27 | Forester 1.10 | Krad 1.06 | NickelBack 1.06 | Lack1 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Entropiq removes Inferno
NIP removes Vertigo
Entropiq picks Overpass
NIP picks Ancient
Entropiq removes Mirage
NIP removes Nuke
Dust2 is left over
NIP - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 1-5 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 63.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NIP - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): device +13 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | hampus -4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
NIP - Key stats on Ancient past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 79.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 22.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NIP - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (8 maps): REZ +12 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | hampus -10 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | device +11 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
NIP - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 77.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NIP - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): device +11 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | LNZ +13 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | hampus -11 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Entropiq - Key stats on Overpass past three months (20 maps): 16-4 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 78.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Entropiq - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (20 maps): El1an +114 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | Forester +51 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Krad +11 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Lack1 +27 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | NickelBack +21 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Entropiq - Key stats on Ancient past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Entropiq - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (8 maps): El1an +33 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Forester +14 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Entropiq - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (24 maps): 14-10 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Entropiq - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (24 maps): El1an +141 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | Forester +56 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Krad +6 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Lack1 +39 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
NiP wins 2-1. Ninjas in Pyjamas could not gain any momentum against Liquid on Wednesday, but this should be an easier match-up for them. Entropiq did just sweep FURIA, but both maps were really close, and the Brazilians are playing with their coach, so it really was not an overly dominant performance from them. Entropiq should pick Overpass, but that used to be one of NiP’s favorite maps, and I think that the Ninjas can at least hang on that map. NiP has prioritized picking Ancient when it is available, and I expect them to do that here especially considering Entropiq have not shown much on that map, even in their win against FURIA. NiP should have the advantage on most maps, and I think that they will come out on top against Entropiq in a best-of-three, though it may take all three maps considering they might not be in their best form at the moment.
Favorite Draftkings Play: device ($7,000)
Device at $7,000, again?! Listen, I loved device yesterday at this same price and he still put up solid stats despite his team getting swept, with 38 Kills, 34 Deaths, and 1.19 Rating across two maps. This should be an even better spot for him, and his team certainly has a better chance of beating Entropiq than Liquid given the form that both teams showed during the first day of group play. This price from Draftkings is so cheap that it is almost disrespectful towards the HLTV number three ranked overall player of 2020. The map pool also looks good for him since he has thrived on Overpass and Entropiq will probably pick that map. I really like REZ and Hampus here too, but they are just more expensive with similar upside, while LNZ is a punt play that I will always consider at $4,800 given his potential upside. El1an would be the player to target on Entropiq, though Forester also looks to be in really good form through the first day of the event.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
REZ ($9,200) | hampus ($8,200) | LNZ ($4,800) | El1an ($8,800) | Forester ($7,200)
Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. Liquid (World rank: #16) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-225) | Liquid (+180)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+130) | Liquid +1.5 (-160)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.36 | Hobbit 1.24 | nafany 1.19 | sh1ro 1.01 | interz 0.88
- Gambit - Rating past three months: Ax1Le 1.21 | sh1ro 1.20 | Hobbit 1.13 | nafany 1.09 | interz 0.93
- Liquid - Rating at event: EliGE 1.75 | FalleN 1.40 | NAF 1.15 | Grim 1.05 | Stewie2K 0.71
- Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.10 | NAF 1.06 | FalleN 1.02 | Grim 0.97 | Stewie2K 0.87
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Liquid removes Ancient
Gambit removes Nuke
Liquid picks Inferno
Gambit picks Vertigo
Liquid removes Mirage
Gambit removes Overpass
Dust2 is left over
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Ax1Le +59 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | sh1ro +64 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Hobbit +15 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): 8-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 38.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): sh1ro +62 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Ax1Le +28 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Hobbit +32 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | nafany -8 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | interz +15 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (12 maps): 9-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 76.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (12 maps): Ax1Le +66 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | sh1ro +47 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Hobbit +23 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 2-0 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 72.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 39.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): NAF +20 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | EliGE +17 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | FalleN +5 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Grim +4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 54.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (1 map): Grim +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 71.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 16.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): EliGE +8 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | FalleN -2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Gambit wins 2-0. Gambit is still the best online counter-strike team in the world in my book, and they should beat Liquid on any map in theory. It took Gambit the full 30 rounds to beat TeamOne on Mirage, 16-14, which was a bit of a poor showing from them, though they bounced back on Ancient, 16-6. Meanwhile, Liquid had everything go their way against NiP on Wednesday, and EliGE and FalleN were both playing at a world-class level. So, current form would point to Liquid having a chance in this series, and they are pretty streaky, meaning that can compete with the top teams when they are hot, but I still think that Gambit will find a way to win on every map as they always seem to do. Maybe Liquid keep these maps close, and one goes to overtime or something, but I have Gambit winning easily on their map pick, which will probably Vertigo. I also give Gambit an edge on Inferno, which was Liquid’s pick against NiP and makes sense as their pick here again.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Hobbit ($7,400)
I’m going back to Hobbit as my favorite play on Draftkings since his price continues to be much more reasonable than Ax1Le and sh1ro, while his production should be pretty similar. Ax1Le and sh1ro have better stats than Hobbit on Vertigo in recent months, but Hobbit has a higher rating on that map across 28 maps played in 2021, and he should be in for a big day if Gambit do pick Vertigo. All three of them look like excellent plays on this slate though. I like nafany too, but I feel that this is a somewhat risky spot for him, and I would probably rather just pay the extra $400 to get EliGE, who is underpriced again but in a tough match-up. I would also consider interz since $5,200 is about as low as his salary has gotten in the past.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Ax1Le ($9,600) | sh1ro ($9,000) | EliGE ($7,000) | nafany ($6,600) | interz ($5,200)