Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #44) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-2500) | TeamOne (+1050)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-450) | TeamOne +1.5 (+300)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+330) | Under 2.5 (-520)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- Gambit - Rating past three months: Ax1Le 1.21 | sh1ro 1.21 | Hobbit 1.12 | nafany 1.09 | interz 0.93
- TeamOne - Rating past three months: malbsMd 1.06 | prt 1.02 | pesadelo 0.99 | Maluk3 0.96 | xns 0.90
H2H Data:
- These teams faced each other at ESL Pro League S13 back in March, and Gambit destroyed TeamOne 2-0 (16-5 Inferno / 16-5 Mirage), though skullz was still on TeamOne at the time (TeamOne acquired xns from Santos in April to replace skullz). Ax1Le was the clear top performer with 48 Kills, 18 Deaths and 1.82 Rating across two maps, though every member of Gambit ended up a positive K/D ratio and a Rating of at least 1.18.
Map Projections:
TeamOne removes Vertigo
Gambit removes Nuke
TeamOne picks Inferno
Gambit picks Dust2
TeamOne removes Overpass
Gambit removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Ax1Le +59 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | sh1ro +64 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Hobbit +15 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (12 maps): 9-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 76.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (12 maps): Ax1Le +66 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | sh1ro +47 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Hobbit +23 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (11 maps): 8-3 W/L record, 63.6% pistol round win percent, 72.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (11 maps): sh1ro +87 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | Ax1Le +35 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | nafany +11 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Hobbit 0 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
TeamOne - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 69.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
TeamOne - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): prt +7 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
TeamOne - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 71.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 22.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
TeamOne - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): prt +19 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | malbsMd +6 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
TeamOne - Key stats on Mirage past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 78.6% pistol round win percent, 74.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
TeamOne - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (7 maps): malbsMd +52 K/D Diff, 1.42 Rating | Maluk3 +15 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | pesadelo 0 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | prt +2 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Gambit wins 2-0. This prediction needs no justification other than the lopsided odds. We also know three things: 1) Counter-Strike tournaments were all played online for the first half of the year 2) Gambit was the undisputed best team in the world for the first half of the year 3) ESL Pro League takes place online. NAVI took the number one ranking away from Gambit on LAN at IEM Cologne, and maybe Gambit still needs more experience on LAN, but for now they should dominate while we are online. TeamOne might choose Mirage for their map pick instead, but I think that Inferno would give them their best chance of winning, especially given the fact that their stats on Mirage are inflated from results against weak teams. There really isn’t anything else to say in terms of narrative because TeamOne is a complete fade for me on this slate.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Hobbit ($8,200)
There are a lot of strong options on Gambit in this spot, but Hobbit is my favorite at $8,200 because I think that his DFS projection should be pretty similar to sh1ro and AX1Le, while his price is much cheaper. All three of them feel pretty safe here though. Ax1Le racked up the most kills when these teams last played, but we have also seen him play rather passively in easy match-ups at times, so there is no guarantee that he will finish at the top of the leaderboard. I also really like nafany because his hyper-aggression could go unpunished, which might lead to some huge entry stats. Interz looks fine given the match-up, but he is never my favorite option on Gambit given his limited upside as a support player.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
sh1ro ($9,400) | Ax1Le ($9,800) | nafany ($7,400) | interz ($6,200)
FURIA (World rank: #15) vs. Entropiq (World rank: #18) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FURIA (+190) | Entropiq (-240)
Map Handicap: FURIA +1.5 (-165) | Entropiq +1.5 (+135)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- FURIA - Rating past three months: KSCERATO 1.26 | yuurih 1.16 | arT 1.07 | VINI 1.03 | guerri N/A
- Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.28 | Forester 1.10 | Krad 1.07 | NickelBack 1.05 | Lack1 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Entropiq removes Inferno
FURIA removes Dust2
Entropiq picks Overpass
FURIA picks Mirage
Entropiq removes Ancient
FURIA removes Vertigo
Nuke is left over
FURIA - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 72.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 17.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FURIA - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): yuurih +25 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | KSCERATO +27 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
FURIA - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 21.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FURIA - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): arT +44 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | KSCERATO +39 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | yuurih +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
FURIA - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FURIA - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): KSCERATO +43 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | yuurih +36 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | VINI +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Entropiq - Key stats on Overpass past three months (22 maps): 17-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 78.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Entropiq - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (22 maps): El1an +121 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | Forester +55 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Krad +24 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Lack1 +35 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | NickelBack +22 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Entropiq - Key stats on Mirage past three months (17 maps): 11-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Entropiq - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (17 maps): El1an +132 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | NickelBack +39 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Krad +18 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Forester +31 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Lack1 +9 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Entropiq - Key stats on Nuke past three months (14 maps): 11-3 W/L record, 32.1% pistol round win percent, 79.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Entropiq - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (14 maps): El1an +108 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | NickelBack +24 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Forester +9 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Lack1 +9 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Entropiq wins 2-1. FURIA finally announced that their fifth player for this event would be their coach, guerri. Honda originally filled in after junior stepped down, but it was then announced that a player from their academy team, drop, would take honda’s spot. However, they were later told that their roster was already locked, meaning drop could not transfer in, so long story short: guerri will now play for honda. It appears that honda’s time with this team is now over, though they stated that he was out due to his mother testing positive for COVID-19. Overall, things have been a bit chaotic, but if there is one team that thrives in chaos, it would be FURIA. I know that FURIA is not at 100% right now, and they really haven’t been at 100% in my mind since they lost HEN1, but I think that it would be foolish to completely count them out here. Guerri is not expected to do much, but honda was not really contributing much either, so it is not like this recent change is the end of the world for FURIA. I would expect Entropiq to win on Overpass, but the rest of the maps could easily go either way. I think that Mirage makes the most sense for FURIA to pick in this spot, and I would even give them a slight edge on that map. I have Entropiq barely winning this in three maps, and I have a feeling this could be a messy series.
Favorite Draftkings Play: El1an ($8,800)
El1an looks like the safest play on either side, regardless of the result. His stats speak for themselves as he has been the top performer on his team on each of the projected maps. Mirage would probably be the best possible map that FURIA could pick for his projection, and I think that there is a really good chance that they do pick it considering Entropiq should ban Inferno. El1an also is not going up against an overly threatening AWPing presence from the Brazilians considering arT will be filling in as the primary AWPer for now. Stacking Entropiq just does not seem like the right move to me. The next best option on Entropiq would probably be Forester, but at $7,800 he is only $200 cheaper than KSCERATO, and do we really think that Forester will out-frag KSCERATO? I tend to think that KSCERATO would be the much better play as long as FURIA keeps it somewhat competitive. The same logic goes for Krad at $6,800 vs. yuurih at $7,200; I definitely prefer yuurih. ArT also seems solid at $6,600 considering he has a very high ceiling due to his aggressiveness, and he should continue to have the AWP in his hands more, which could at least help him from being inconsistent. If I was stacking a side on Draftkings, then I would prefer FURIA, but my favorite play would be to pair one or two of the FURIA players with El1an.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
KSCERATO ($8,000) | yuurih ($7,200) | arT ($6,600) | Forester ($7,800) | Lack1 ($4,800)
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #9) vs. Liquid (World rank: #16) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-150) | Liquid (+120)
Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (+190) | Liquid +1.5 (-235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group D
- NiP - Rating past three months: REZ 1.12 | hampus 1.10 | device 1.08 | Plopski 0.94 | LNZ 0.93
- Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.05 | EliGE 0.97 | Grim 0.95 | FalleN 0.94 | Stewie2K 0.91
H2H Data:
- These teams faced each other on LAN back in July at IEM Cologne, and NiP won 2-1 (17-19 Overpass / 16-6 Dust2 / 16-2 Mirage). Device led the way with 73 Kills and a 1.58 Rating across three maps.
Map Projections:
Liquid removes Ancient
NiP removes Vertigo
Liquid picks Nuke
NiP picks Mirage
Liquid removes Dust2
NiP removes Inferno
Overpass is left over
NiP - Key stats on Nuke past three months (3 maps): 3-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 74.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (3 maps): hampus +13 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | device +14 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | REZ +7 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Plopski +4 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | LNZ +4 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): hampus +24 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | device +12 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 63.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): device +13 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Nuke past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 61.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 40.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (2 maps): NAF +1 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | EliGE 0 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Stewie2K +4 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | FalleN +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Mirage past three months (1 maps): 0-1 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 33.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 0.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (1 maps): N/A (They lost 2-16 on their only map of Mirage in the past three months, so the stats are ugly)
Liquid - Key stats on Overpass past three months (1 maps): 1-0 W/L record, 100.0% pistol round win percent, 66.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (1 maps): Grim +13 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | NAF -1 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | FalleN 0 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
NiP wins 2-0. Last time these teams played, Liquid stole Overpass from NiP in overtime, and then took a 6-2 lead on their map pick of Dust2. It was all downhill from there though, as NiP then won 14 straight rounds on Dust2 and embarrassed Liquid on their own map pick. The momentum stayed with NiP as they won nine rounds in a row to take a 9-0 lead on the T side of the decider map, Mirage, and they won the map 16-2. I just don’t see how you could trust Liquid in this series given the pathetic showing they had last time, losing 23 straight rounds across two maps. Liquid will obviously need to figure out a new map pick, and I think that Nuke or maybe Inferno makes the most sense, but there is no way to be certain. Ninjas in Pyjamas should be able to pick Mirage considering Liquid have prioritized banning Ancient, and I would have to give them a significant edge on . I think that NiP should also have a pretty good chance of winning on Liquid’s map pick, and a 2-0 sweep for NiP seems most likely here.
Favorite Draftkings Play: device ($7,000)
Device against Liquid at only $7,000 on Draftkings? Seems like an absolute no brainer to me. He was on fire with 73 Kills, 37 Deaths and a 1.58 Rating across three maps when these teams last faced each other, though that was on LAN where device seems to be even better than he is online. Still, this match-up looks great for device and his price is way too cheap. I can’t remember a time when device’s salary was ever this low on Draftkings, and I would not recommend missing out on this opportunity to roster him at only $7K. REZ and hampus also look like excellent options, but device just offers so much more value. Plopski is never my favorite option on NiP given his limited upside as an anchor, and I like would rather take the risk on LNZ at only $5K. LNZ has been pretty inconsistent but has shown a lot of potential, and I think that he is a risk worth taking at this price. Liquid is not the focus for me on this slate, but EliGE at $7,600 is a price that catches my eye as being too cheap for an elite player.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
hampus ($7,600) | REZ ($8,400) | LNZ ($5,000) | EliGE ($7,600) | Plopski ($6,000)
*Favorite Stacks: Gambit, NiP
*Favorite CPT Plays: device, Hobbit, El1an, sh1ro, REZ, Ax1Le, KSCERATO
*Favorite Value Options: nafany, Hampus, yuurih, LNZ