Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. Fiend (World rank: #25) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-295) | Fiend (+230)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+105) | Fiend +1.5 (-130)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the IEM Fall 2021 Europe playoffs.
- Astralis – Stats at event: Magisk 1.20 | Lucky 1.20 | Xyp9x 1.10 | dupreeh 1.10 | Bubzkji 1.10
- Astralis – Stats past three months: Magisk 1.08 | dupreeh 1.07 | Lucky 1.05 | Xyp9x 1.04 | Bubzkji 0.98
- Fiend – Stats at event: h4rn 1.27 | dream3r 1.17 | v1c7oR 1.02 | REDSTAR 0.98| bubble 0.91
- Fiend – Stats past three months: h4rn 1.12 | REDSTAR 1.11 | v1c7oR 1.08 | dream3r 1.06 | bubble 1.00
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-0.
For Astralis, this is a must-win series. The Danes came into IEM Fall behind G2, Ninjas in Pyjamas and Vitality in the Europe RMR standings, and they’ll have some catching up to do if they want to take away ‘Legend Status’ from one of those three teams. They’ll need to finish this event three spots ahead of NiP/Vitality or four spots ahead of G2, which is somewhat of a tall task considering we are down to only eight teams. This means that Astralis should be locked in on Friday as they look to give themselves the best chance of another major win. On the other side, Fiend are just looking to qualify for the major, and they will need just one win either here or in the 5th-8th place decider bracket to do so.
Mirage is the permaban for Astralis, while Fiend should continue to ban Vertigo. With Magisk as their temporary IGL, Astralis have done well on Nuke, and that map makes sense as their pick since they should have a strategical advantage over a team like Fiend. Without Mirage as an option, Fiend may decide to go for Dust2, where they recently went on a 13 map win streak starting at the end of August. The map has been updated since, which could add an x-factor here though. I’d expect Inferno to be the decider map in that scenario. Overall, the map pool should be well in the favor of Astralis, especially since they will ban Fiend’s most played map, Mirage. Sure, Fiend have looked solid on Dust2, but we know that Astralis have historically played that map at an elite level, so Fiend will have to just hope that they are hitting all of their shots. If Fiend did decide to switch things up and do something more unexpected, like picking Ancient, then that could work to their favor against the preparation that Astralis has surely been doing. Still, this should set-up as a 2-0 sweep for Astralis
If this series was online, then Fiend may be more of a live underdog, but this is a LAN playoff match and Astralis should take care of business. I could see Fiend winning some rounds on Dust2 or Ancient, but I would be shocked to see them take a single map against Astralis given the high stakes for the Danish side. For that reason, stacking three from Astralis seems like a no brainer here. Xyp9x almost always plays better on LAN as demonstrated by his 1.10 Rating at this event, and his $6,600 price tag on DK seems way too cheap. Xyp9x has a nickname of the ‘clutch minister’ due to his amazing clutching ability, but Lucky has been the player that has been clutching up the most for Astralis at this event, and he continues to look better as the main AWPer in this veteran lineup. I like playing Lucky a lot here, but I would rather spend $400 extra for dupreeh, who has averaged 0.70 kills per round in the past three months compared to 0.64 kills per round for Lucky during that time. Magisk has been fragging since taking over as IGL in gla1ve’s temporary absence, but his expensive $9,800 price tag puts him a bit lower on my priority rankings. Bubzkji is my least favorite option on Astralis, but he should still be a fine play at his price. I would not recommend focusing on Fiend for this slate, but dream3r’s price tag caught my eye at only $5,000, so he would be my top play from that side.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Xyp9x ($6,600) | dupreeh ($8,000) | Lucky ($7,600) | magisk ($9,800) | Bubzkji ($6,000) | dream3r ($5,000)
G2 (World rank: #4) vs. ENCE (World rank: #13) - 2:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-145) | ENCE (+120)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+190) | ENCE +1.5 (-235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the IEM Fall 2021 Europe playoffs.
- G2 – Stats at event: huNter- 1.49 | NiKo 1.32 | JaCkz 1.28 | nexa 1.07 | AmaNEk 1.06
- G2 – Stats past three months: NiKo 1.25 | huNter- 1.09 | AmaNEk 0.98 | nexa 0.95 | JaCkz 0.94
- ENCE – Stats at event: dycha 1.19 | Spinx 1.15 | hades 1.09 | doto 1.01 | Snappi 0.98
- ENCE – Stats past three months: Spinx 1.15 | dycha 1.14 | hades 1.12 | Snappi 1.03 | doto 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams faced at ESL Pro League Season 13, which was G2’s first event played with their current lineup, but ENCE still had allu on the AWP instead of hades. The addition of hades to this international ENCE roster has seemed to make them a much more consistent team.
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-1.
Prior to the start of the IEM Fall Playoffs, G2 sat in first place in the Europe RMR standings, which means that they don’t need to do much here to earn ‘Legend Status’ at the major. Of the eight teams remaining, G2 just need to avoid letting Astralis finish four spots ahead of them, otherwise the Danes would steal away ‘Legend Status’ from them. So, this isn’t exactly a ‘must win’ for G2 because they would have other chances, but this match is still very important to them. On the other hand, ENCE just need one win either here or in the 5th-8th place decider bracket to secure their spot in the major.
G2 will likely ban Overpass to start while ENCE should remove Inferno. With Inferno likely out of the way, G2 may decide to go for Mirage or even Dust2. Mirage has been their most played map in recent months, but ENCE have some impressive wins in the past month on Mirage, including beating Vitality and forZe. The win over forZe was particularly impressive because forZe are one of the best Mirage teams in the world, and their loss to ENCE ended a 17 map win streak. G2 used to play a lot more Dust2, and they certainly have the aimers to succeed on that map, so maybe they’ve been working on their Dust2 after the recent update. Nuke has been ENCE’s most played map in recent months and seems like the logical choice for them. Vertigo would then make the most sense as the decider map for this series. ENCE should be feeling pretty good about the map pool considering they will have removed G2’s best map, plus Mirage could make it’s way into the map pool, which is ENCE’s second most played map in recent months.
I’ve been saying for a couple of months now that ENCE were underrated. That may no longer be true though now that they are up to 13th in the world rankings. The odds have this as a close match, and I can maybe see why considering ENCE are a capable team with a strong map pool, but these odds still seem disrespectful towards G2. Sure, G2 have had some crummy performances in recent months, but not all events are of equal importance to them, and qualifying for ‘Legend Status’ at the major is surely at the top of G2’s list of priorities. I’m taking the more talented team to figure out a way to win here, which is why I prefer playing G2 on Draftkings. NiKo is my favorite spend-up option on the slate, and his cousin huNter- is certainly another strong option to look at considering he is the highest rated player at IEM Fall with a 1.49 Rating across five maps played. I do think that this series will be pretty close either way, and I wouldn’t mind having some exposure to ENCE, even if was just a single ENCE player with two G2 players. Hades looks like an excellent value at only $6,400, especially since he might get pretty comfortable taking some aggressive AWP peeks going against a marginal AWPer, AmaNEk, on the other team.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($9,400) | hades ($6,400) | huNter- ($7,800) | AmaNEk ($6,800) | Spinx ($8,400) | nexa ($6,200) | dycha ($7,200)
*Preferred Stacks: Astralis, G2
*Favorite Captain Plays: NiKo, dupreeh, Lucky, huNter-, magisk
Top Value Options: Xyp9x, hades, AmaNEk, Bubzkji, nexa