FaZe (World rank: #7) vs. BIG (World rank: #11) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-215) | BIG (+175)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+145) | BIG +1.5 (-175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the 9th place decider of IEM Fall 2021 Europe. The significance of this match is discussed in my prediction below.
- BIG - stats at event: tabseN 1.21 | syrsoN 1.05 | k1to 1.00 | gade 0.99 | tiziaN 0.89
- BIG - stats past three months: tabseN 1.11 | syrsoN 1.08 | k1to 1.00 | gade 0.99 |tiziaN 0.96
- FaZe - stats at event: rain 1.18 | Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.09 | karrigan 0.93 | olofmeister 0.92
- FaZe - stats past three months: Twistzz 1.12 | broky 1.12 | rain 1.05 | olofmeister 0.93 | karrigan 0.90
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other online in August at ESL Pro League S14 and FaZe swept 2-0 (16-7 Dust2 / 16-9 Inferno). All five members of FaZe finished with a Rating of at least 1.26 and a positive K/D ratio across two maps. The only other meeting between these teams in 2021 was at a charity tournament, which was also prior to gade joining BIG.
Prediction/Narrative: FaZe wins 2-0.
Win and get in? FaZe will give themselves a great chance of qualifying for the major with a win on Wednesday, but they still won’t be guaranteed a spot in the biggest tournament of the year unless Fiend, ENCE, Copenhagen Flames, or Movistar Riders finishes in 8th place for this event. Those teams will face off in the playoffs against four elite teams: Astralis, G2, Vitality and Ninjas in Pyjamas, so the odds of qualifying should be well in FaZe’s favor if they can manage to beat BIG. On the other side, BIG already qualified for the major with their win on Tuesday, so the stakes are certainly higher here for FaZe.
We can expect to see BIG ban Ancient and FaZe ban Vertigo. From there, BIG can go for Dust2, which has been their favorite map in the past, or they could try to punish FaZe by picking Nuke, which FaZe have struggled on, meanwhile BIG just beat Heroic on Nuke in overtime on Tuesday. Mirage makes the most sense for FaZe to pick here since that has been one of their best maps. They may consider Inferno too, but they just blew a huge lead that map against OG. With gade in the lineup, BIG have a win rate above 50% on two maps: Vertigo & Dust2, and I already mentioned that Vertigo should be getting removed. BIG can beat anybody on Dust2, but I do have less confidence in them on that map now that their Turkish Aim God, XANTARES, is no longer with the team. The rest of the maps should be well in the favor of FaZe though, with the exception of maybe Nuke. Either way, FaZe have enough of an advantage with the strength of their map pool, plus this is a ‘must-win’ series for them, so I do have confidence that they can win the series. FaZe dominated BIG 16-7 on Dust2 last time, and I think they will sweep the Germans in this spot, but a 2-1 win is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.
On Draftkings, stacking three from FaZe is my preferred play. Broky & Twistzz project to be excellent spend-up options especially since they were tied as the highest rated player on the server when these teams last faced each other with a 1.38 Rating across two maps. I am expecting broky to bounce back after a somewhat quiet day on Tuesday, while Twistzz is now priced up from $7,200 and is a bit more inconsistent as a rifler, so broky is my preference of the two, but I definitely like them both. Olofmeister showed excellent form on Tuesday as we expected him too bounce back, and I think that will continue here. Rain is the highest rated player on FaZe at IEM Fall with a 1.18 Rating thus far, which makes him another strong option at only $7,200. BIG is not the focus for me on this slate, but gade would be my favorite play on that side based on pricing.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
broky ($9,600) | Twistzz ($9,000) | olofmeister ($6,200) | rain ($7,200)
Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. OG (World rank: #10) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-175) | OG (+140)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+165) | OG +1.5 (-200)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the 11th place decider of IEM Fall 2021 Europe. The significance of this match is discussed in my prediction below.
- Heroic - stats at event: cadiaN 1.09 | sjuush 1.08 | TeSeS 1.07 | refrezh 1.06 | stavn 0.98
- Heroic - stats past three months: TeSeS 1.09 | cadiaN 1.08 | sjuush 1.07 | stavn 1.07 | refrezh 1.06
- OG - stats at event: mantuu 1.12 | flameZ 1.11 | Aleksib 1.08 | valde 0.97 | niko 0.94
- OG - stats past three months: mantuu 1.12 | flameZ 1.11 | valde 1.04 | Aleksib 0.99 | niko 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in March at ESL Pro League S13, which was prior to OG adding flameZ & niko.
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.
OG is officially out of the major, so this match is basically meaningless to them. Similarly, Heroic already have a spot in the major, and they no longer have a chance of earning Legend Status, so this match is basically meaningless to them as well. All things considered, this is an insignificant match, so there isn’t too much to say here for narrative. I’m going with Heroic simply because they are the better team overall.
Heroic should continue to ban Dust2, and OG should continue to ban Vertigo. Inferno has been a strong map for OG, having won on it six times in a row, and I expect them to pick it in this spot. Nuke is a no brainer for Heroic considering it is their most played map, while OG have really struggled on it as of late having just lost 9-16 to MAD Lions. Inferno would pretty much be a coinflip between these teams because Heroic are also on a win streak of their own on that map having gone 4-0 at ESL Pro League S14 with wins against Spirit, Vitality, Astralis & Liquid. Mirage could be a coinflip if it were to be played, and Heroic would be heavy favorites on Nuke, Overpass, & Ancient. Heroic should have this best-of-three series locked up as long as they play near the best of their ability.
On Draftkings, I like stacking Heroic the most, and all five members are in play per usual. The pricing for Heroic is similar to Tuesday, with sjuush and refrezh pretty much just swapping price tags. Refrezh continues to be a high risk, high reward value play based on his difficult role in this roster, but I like him even more now that his price dropped further. Sjuush led his team with 46 Kills and a 1.04 Rating in their loss to BIG, and he could be in for another good performance if he continues that form. Stavn looks like a solid play once again based on the projected maps, while TeSeS & cadiaN are both fine spend-ups, but I would probably rather spend up for the studs on FaZe for this slate. OG is not my priority here, but anything can happen in a match that is insignificant to both sides. Mantuu would be my favorite on OG, and everyone else on the team seems reasonably priced if you do decide to stack them.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
refrezh ($5,800) | stavn ($7,600) | sjuush ($6,600) | TeSeS ($9,400) | cadiaN ($8,600)