Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. BIG (World rank: #11) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-215) | BIG (+175)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+145) | BIG +1.5 (-175)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the 9th-12th place deciders upper bracket semi-final of IEM Fall 2021 Europe. The significance of this match is discussed in my prediction below.
- Heroic - stats at event: cadiaN 1.16 | TeSeS 1.15 | sjuush 1.10 | refresh 1.09 | stavn 0.99
- Heroic - stats past three months: TeSeS 1.10 | cadiaN 1.09 | stavn 1.08 | sjuush 1.07 | refresh 1.07
- BIG - stats at event: tabseN 1.14 | k1to 1.10 | syrsoN 0.98 | gade 0.90 | tiziaN 0.85
- BIG - stats past three months: tabseN 1.09 | syrsoN 1.07 | k1to 1.01 | gade 0.98 |tiziaN 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because XANTARES was still part of BIG’s lineup instead of gade when the teams last played in April. Heroic swept that series 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-12 Nuke) and every member of the Danish side finished with a positive K/D ratio and a Rating of at least one.
Map Projections:
BIG removes Ancient
Heroic removes Dust2
BIG picks Mirage
Heroic picks Inferno
BIG removes Overpass
Heroic removes Vertigo
Nuke is left over.
Heroic - Key stats on Mirage past three months (4 maps): 1-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (4 maps): TeSeS +3 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 30.0% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): stavn +12 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | refrezh +23 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | TeSeS +4 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | cadiaN +7 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | sjuush -3 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (11 maps): 6-5 W/L record, 45.5% pistol round win percent, 72.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (11 maps): stavn +2 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | TeSeS +17 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | cadiaN +17 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | sjuush +13 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | refrezh +15 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 68.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): tabseN +19 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | syrsoN +32 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | k1to +8 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 57.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): syrsoN -9 K/D Diff, 0.93 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 80.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 18.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): syrsoN +2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | tabseN -6 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | tiziaN -8 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
*Note: Stats for BIG only include maps played since gade joined the lineup.
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-1.
The 9th-12 place decider bracket may seem frivolous, but these teams are competing for crucial RMR points, and their placing here could determine if they qualify for the year’s most important event: PGL Major Stockholm 2021. Heroic are already qualified for the major, but they could still hope to earn a free pass through the Challengers Stage by earning Legend Status. Their odds of finishing with Legend Status are very low and they would need a lot of specific outcomes to go their way, but the fact that there is a chance is enough to give me confidence that they will be giving this series their all. As for BIG, they just need to win one series in this double elimination bracket to qualify for the major. That might sound easy but getting past the Danes or the winner of OG/FaZe would not be a guarantee for any team, especially a team with mixed results like BIG.
Both of these teams reached number one in the world in 2020 during the ‘online era’ of Counter-Strike, though this event is on LAN. Heroic have been in solid form lately, and they are only in this position due to an unlucky tiebreaker with a dumb format. Meanwhile, BIG benefitted by winning their own tiebreaker matches. Heroic have firepower across the board as demonstrated by all five of their members having a Rating between 1.07 and 1.10 in the past three months, while BIG have yet to find consistency since replacing XANTARES with gade. They continue to show positive signs as a unit, and we know that their switch to all-German comms will undoubtedly help them improve even further, but I am not fully sold on them quite yet.
We saw Heroic float Dust2 through against Movistar Riders & Sinners, but they went right back to banning their least favorite map afterwards, and they will surely ban it here against the Germans. BIG should continue to remove Ancient as well. Mirage makes a ton of sense as a pick for BIG since it is one of Heroic’s rare weaker maps while BIG have looked decent on it and even beat NAVI 16-7. Heroic could then go for their favorite map, Nuke, or more of a ‘punish pick’ with Inferno or Overpass. BIG have shown that they are willing to play Nuke, so I expect to see Heroic float Nuke through as the decider and pick Inferno instead, especially considering how bad BIG have looked on that map. Heroic are the much better team, and the map pool looks fine for them. Their instaban happens to be BIG’s favorite map, which obviously works in their favor, plus they should be a heavy favorite on any other map besides Mirage. Even Mirage could still go Heroic’s way, and I would expect that to be a pretty even map. If we do get to Nuke as the decider, then you would have to pick Heroic to win considering they were the best Nuke team in the world earlier in the year before NAVI stripped that title from them.
On Draftkings, my favorite option would be to stack three from Heroic, and all five members are in play as always. Stavn is a lock for me at $7,600 since the map pool could set-up nicely for him. Inferno & Nuke are two of his best maps, while he has also been pretty consistent on Mirage, and he often handles the secondary AWP on that map, which could help boost his stats. TeSeS should smash here, and I think he is certainly worth paying up for despite being the most expensive option on the slate. CadiaN is not my favorite option now that he has been priced up based on recent form, but he is another fine option. Refrezh is a high risk, high reward value play since he plays difficult positions for his team which leads to volatility. Sjuush is a strong play at under $6K. BIG will be fighting hard for a spot in the major, but I expect them to struggle against a better team, so they are not my focus for DFS. TabseN & syrsoN would be my clear favorite two plays on that side. TabseN should continue to have additional upside now that the M4A1-S has been buffed, while this could be a good time to ‘buy low’ on syrsoN after a quiet event from him so far.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
stavn ($7,600) | TeSeS ($9,400) | sjuush ($5,800) | refrezh ($6,600) | cadiaN ($8,600) | tabseN ($7,400) | syrsoN ($6,400)
OG (World rank: #10) vs. FaZe (World rank: #7) - 11:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: OG (-120) | FaZe (-105)
Map Handicap: OG -1.5 (+250) | FaZe +1.5 (-320)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-115)
- This is a best-of-three series for the 9th-12th place deciders upper bracket semi-final of IEM Fall 2021 Europe. The significance of this match is discussed in my prediction below.
- FaZe - stats at event: rain 1.20 | broky 1.16 | Twistzz 1.02 | karrigan 0.97 | olofmeister 0.73
- FaZe - stats past three months: broky 1.13 | Twistzz 1.10 | rain 1.05 | olofmeister 0.92 | karrigan 0.90
- OG - stats at event: Aleksib 1.20 | mantuu 1.20 | valde 1.06 | flameZ 1.05 | niko 0.95
- OG - stats past three months: mantuu 1.13 | flameZ 1.10 | valde 1.07 | Aleksib 1.00 | niko 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other less than two weeks ago online at BLAST Premier Fall Groups and FaZe won 2-1 (13-16 Inferno / 16-14 Ancient / 16-8 Mirage). Rain & Twistzz each had 59 kills across three maps with rain finishing as the highest rated player on FaZe. Mantuu tied rain with a 1.19 Rating for both of them, and mantuu even finished with the most kills, 62, despite his team losing the series.
Map Projections:
FaZe removes Overpass
OG removes Ancient
FaZe picks Mirage
OG picks Inferno
FaZe removes Dust2
OG removes Vertigo
Nuke is left over.
OG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 6-6 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 67.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (12 maps): valde +35 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | mantuu +30 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | flameZ 0 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
OG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 80.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): flameZ +25 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | mantuu +62 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | valde +23 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Aleksib -7 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
OG - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 66.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): mantuu +19 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (13 maps): 8-5 W/L record, 46.2% pistol round win percent, 79.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (13 maps): Twistzz +35 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | broky +60 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | rain -3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | olofmeister -4 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Inferno past three months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 40.9% pistol round win percent, 73.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (11 maps): rain 0 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | broky +22 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Twistzz -5 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | karrigan -17 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | olofmeister +3 K/D Diff, 0.99 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 1-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 80.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 17.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): broky +16 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | rain -12 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: FaZe wins 2-0.
Neither of these teams have qualified for the major yet, and the path to a spot is a lot more likely for OG on paper. If OG win this bracket and finish IEM Fall in 9th place, then they will earn enough RMR points for a spot. Additionally, they have other scenarios of qualifying if they do only manage 10th or 11th place. Meanwhile for FaZe, a 9th place finish is required from them, but even then, their qualification would be contingent on a few other things. I actually think that a spot in the major is still very attainable for FaZe if they can manage to win their next two series, and their veteran lineup will be of the same mindset. Thus, both teams are motivated to win, and you could argue that this is more of a ‘must win’ for FaZe since winning is their only option if they want to play in the major, while OG have other outs.
Neither team has looked overwhelmingly impressive at this event, and they both suffered a bad loss in their last map played with OG losing to MAD Lions and FaZe falling victim to Fiend. Both lineups have pretty much settled since their roster changes earlier in the year, so there isn’t too much for narrative here, other than maybe FaZe having expectations to do well on LAN after their performance at IEM Cologne. Olofmeister has really struggled at IEM Fall which has people wondering if he will once again consider retirement, but he has a winner’s mentality, and I think that the possibility of earning a spot in the major will be more than enough for him to find the motivation to persevere.
Vertigo is the permaban for both sides, which means they might both decide to risk floating it through in order to take away one of their opponent’s stronger maps, though FaZe did ban it to start last time. Mirage has been one of OG’s better maps in the past, but they have lost four of their last five on it with one of those losses coming against FaZe, so I think that FaZe might decide that Mirage is their best option here. Inferno seems to be the most logical choice for OG in this spot. If FaZe decide to float Vertigo through, then they could maybe force a map like Nuke as the decider. FaZe’s stats on that map are ugly, but the same is true for OG who just got stomped by MAD Lions on Nuke. The biggest struggle for FaZe on Nuke has been their T side, but they at least have the possibility of starting CT if Nuke is the decider rather than their own map pick. The map pool seems to be fairly even here. It really just depends on how these teams decide to handle Vertigo. I’d give FaZe an edge on Mirage & Nuke, and I see Inferno as more of a coinflip. FaZe just beat this team online, and I think they will roll them on LAN now that the stakes are higher. If FaZe show good form tomorrow, then this could be a fairly quick 2-0 since they can certainly steal OG’s pick from them. I’m leaning towards a 2-0 rather than a 2-1 result, but either way, I see FaZe coming out on top.
On Draftkings, a three stack from FaZe would be my favorite option here. Twistzz has not had much impact at IEM Fall, but we know that he will bounce back eventually, and his $7,200 price tag is really hard to ignore. Broky looks like another really great play at $8,200 as well. I think that olofmeister will find good form again asap, so I like taking a shot on him at only $5,600. Rain looks like a solid play at $6,800, but I would way rather prefer Twistzz as only $400 more. Karrigan is not the focus for me since he typically has inconsistent results with a low ceiling, and I would only add him in a stack if you really needed to save the salary. I would rather play a one-off from OG, like flameZ, who has been solid on the projected maps, or even Aleksib, who has been ahead of the meta and is racking up DFS points with his increased grenade usage. Still, FaZe would be my main focus in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Twistzz ($7,200) | broky ($8,200) | olofmeister ($5,600) | rain ($6,800) | flameZ ($8,000) | Aleksib ($6,200) | karrigan ($5,000)