BIG (World rank: #13) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #16) - 7:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (Even) | MOUZ (-120)
Map Handicap: BIG +1.5 (-290) | MOUZ -1.5 (+230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-120)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 5 (teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the Legends stage, losing team is eliminated.
- BIG - Rating at event: tabseN 1.12 | syrsoN 1.10 | k1to 1.02 | gade 0.97 | tiziaN 0.88
- BIG - Rating past three months: tabseN 1.09 | syrsoN 1.04 | k1to 0.95 | gade 0.95 | tiziaN 0.94
- MOUZ - Rating at event: ropz 1.29 | frozen 1.16 | Bymas 1.13 | dexter 1.00 | acoR 0.95
- MOUZ - Rating past three months: frozen 1.19 | ropz 1.18 | Bymas 1.11 | acoR 1.00 | dexter 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters have faced each other a few times this year. At IEM Fall 2021 Europe, MOUZ beat BIG in a best-of-one on Mirage, 16-10, but the teams were tied at the end of group play, and BIG won the following tiebreaker on Vertigo. Prior to that, MOUZ won a best-of-three at ESL Pro League S14 (16-12 Nuke / 7-16 Dust2 / 16-12 Mirage). TabseN & Bymas tied each other for the most kills with 60 each across three maps, though frozen was the highest rated player on the server with a 1.29 Rating.
Map Projections:
BIG removes Ancient
MOUZ removes Overpass
BIG picks Dust2
MOUZ picks Inferno
BIG removes Mirage
MOUZ removes Vertigo
Nuke is left over
BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 75.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (10 maps): tabseN +17 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | syrsoN +14 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | gade +16 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | tiziaN +4 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 2-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 57.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): N/A
BIG - Key stats on Nuke past three months (10 maps): 4-6 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 72.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 20.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (10 maps): syrsoN +19 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | tabseN -7 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
MOUZ - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 65.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
MOUZ - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (2 maps): Bymas +25 K/D Diff, 1.57 Rating | frozen +8 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | acoR +8 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | ropz +6 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
MOUZ - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 78.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
MOUZ - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): frozen +22 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | ropz +18 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Bymas +17 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | acoR +4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | dexter -3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
MOUZ - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
MOUZ - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): ropz +27 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | frozen +20 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Bymas -1 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: MOUZ wins 2-0.
MOUZ had a close match-up against Renegades on Thursday, but they ended that series with a 16-6 stomping on Vertigo, which now puts them as the third highest rated team at this event with a 1.11 Rating across six maps played. BIG were unable to get past ENCE on Thursday, in part due to the fact that gade really struggled with only 40 kills and a 0.79 Rating across three maps. Both teams have had similar results as of late with BIG beating Renegades 16-9 on Inferno while MOUZ beat them 16-10 on that map, meanwhile MOUZ lost 11-16 to ENCE on Nuke and BIG lost to them 10-16 on that map. I’m not sure that either of these teams have what it takes to make a Major run, but I do have MOUZ as a clear favorite here based on map pool & form, despite the oddsmakers calling this as a pick-em.
MOUZ have a balanced map pool, and BIG don’t have many strong options for a map pick. Dust2 has been their favorite map in the past, and MOUZ don’t play a lot of Dust2, so that is their most likely option. However, that map choice made a lot more sense for BIG when they still had the Turkish Aim God, XANTARES, on their team. Plus, there is a chance that MOUZ ban Dust2 to start as they are often flexible with their bans, in which case BIG would maybe pick Vertigo, though MOUZ have won four of their last five on Vertigo, with the tiebreaker from IEM Fall as their only loss. BIG have lost seven of their last nine on Inferno and I’d have to give MOUZ a huge edge on that map, as it has been a weakness for the Germans for a while, even losing nine in a row on that map earlier in the year. BIG only have a win rate greater than 40% on two maps in the past three months, which would be Dust2 & Vertigo. Other than that, the rest of the map pool looks much better for MOUZ, and I'd have MOUZ easily winning this series in three maps if they were unable to steal away BIG’s map pick. Dust2 would be better for BIG on paper, but that map can be such a toss-up, so I think the sweep is certainly in play for MOUZ.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ropz ($7,600) | Bymas ($7,200) | frozen ($9,000) | acoR ($6,200) | Dexter ($5,200) | syrsoN ($7,000) | tabseN ($8,400)
Stacking three from MOUZ is my favorite move here, and ropz is so cheap that we should probably just hammer him. I also really like Bymas as he has thrived in this match-up in the past, and the projected map pool looks solid for him.
Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. Spirit (World rank: #20) - 11:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-150) | Spirit (+125)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+190) | Spirit +1.5 (-240)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-120)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Challengers Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021 - Swiss Round 5 (teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the Legends stage, losing team is eliminated.
- Astralis - Rating at event: Magisk 1.15 | gla1ve 1.10 | dupreeh 1.09 | Xyp9x 0.95 | Lucky 0.91
- Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.09 | dupreeh 1.07 | Lucky 0.99 | Xyp9x 0.96 | gla1ve 0.93
- Spirit - Rating at event: sdy 1.17 | mir 1.10 | magixx 1.01 | degster 0.95 | chopper 0.85
- Spirit - Rating past three months: degster 1.17 | mir 1.14 | sdy 1.06 | magixx 1.05 | chopper 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because Astralis recently changed their lineup. The teams did face twice in 2021 with Astralis winning the most recent series 2-1 (11-16 Dust2 / 16-6 Inferno / 16-7 Ancient). Magisk stepped up with 57 kills and 1.20 Rating across three maps in that series. Spirit did win the series prior to that in February at IEM Katowice though, and they even dominated the Danes 16-1 on Dust2.
Map Projections:
Astralis removes Mirage
Spirit removes Vertigo
Astralis picks Inferno
Spirit picks Dust2
Astralis removes Ancient
Spirit removes Overpass
Nuke is left over
Astralis - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 84.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): Lucky +28 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating Xyp9x (2 maps) 0 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | dupreeh +19 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | gla1ve (4 maps) -3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 60.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): dupreeh +2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Lucky +3 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Nuke past three months (14 maps): 10-4 W/L record, 46.4% pistol round win percent, 76.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (14 maps): Magisk +5 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | dupreeh +42 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Lucky +11 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | gla1ve (4 maps) -6 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 2-7 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 62.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): N/A
Spirit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 79.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): degster +57 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | mir +37 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | magixx +17 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | sdy +15 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Nuke past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 80.0% pistol round win percent, 77.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (10 maps): mir +52 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | degster +72 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | sdy +29 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | magixx -2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1
Do-or-die for Astralis & Spirit here with neither team looking overly impressive at this event. Astralis are the eighth highest rated team at PGL Major Stockholm, in part thanks to their two easy match-ups in the best-of-threes against GODSENT & paiN. However, Astralis needed overtime to get past paiN on Ancient, and the Danes do not look like the same elite team that won the last two Majors. Meanwhile, Spirit have looked OK, but degster has been quiet for them which seems to be holding them back. When it comes to aim, Spirit should have an edge, but when it comes to strats, Astralis are still superior. It can be a bit difficult to predict how Spirit is going to look on any given day as they can beat anybody when their shots are hitting but they can also lose to anybody when they are cold.
I’m expecting this series to go similarly to the last one that these teams played. Spirit should win their own map pick, Dust2, but Astralis should be able to make better adjustments on the other two maps of the series. Sure, the recent Dust2 update could affect how we look at this match-up on that map, but Spirit beat Astralis 16-1 on that map earlier this year, and I don’t see Spirit losing on Dust2 with that type of confidence. If Astralis are able to get Inferno & Nuke into the map pool, then they should have a significant edge in this series, especially on Inferno where Spirit have now lost four in a row, including a recent 2-16 loss to FunPlus Phoenix. Spirit have won seven of their last right on Nuke, but they mostly beat weak teams, and I’d still give the Danes an edge on that map at the moment. The only way that I could see Spirit having a chance here in a best-of-three would be to switch up the map veto to catch Astralis off guard. Even then, the Danes seem to be prepared for everything, so Astralis is my pick to advance here, though this series could be close with both teams having a strong map pick.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Lucky ($6,800) | gla1ve ($5,400) | magisk ($8,800) | dupreeh ($8,200) | Xyp9x ($6,400) | degster ($7,800) | mir ($7,400) | magixx ($5,800)
I prefer stacking three from Astralis, and Lucky is my favorite player to target based on projected maps and price. I don't mind some exposure to Spirit since this could be a tight series, and degster would be my favorite option on that side, though he has not been playing well at this event.