ENCE (World rank: #11) vs. K23 (World rank: #45) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-360) | K23 (+275)
Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (-105) | K23 +1.5 (-115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-165)
- This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket semi-final of IEM Winter 2021 Europe Closed Qualifier
- ENCE - stats at event: Spinx 1.17 | hades 1.09 | dycha 1.04 | Snappi 1.00 | doto 0.97
- ENCE - stats past three months: Spinx 1.15 | dycha 1.12 | hades 1.09 | Snappi 1.02 | doto 0.99
- K23 - stats at event: fame 1.09 | xsepower 1.05 | n0rb3r7 1.02 | X5G7V 1.02 | neaLaN 0.94
- K23 - stats past three months: xsepower 1.12 | n0rb3r7 1.10 | fame 1.09 | X5G7V 1.05 | neaLaN 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. ENCE swept 2-0 when the teams played back in June, but K23 have since added xsepower & X5G7V to replace mou & AdreN.
Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-1.
Two things to note here in terms of narrative.
- K23 just added xsepower & X5G7V earlier in the month and have only played 23 maps with this lineup. Still, they’ve won six of their last nine maps played, including a best-of-three win against Spirit, and their new additions seem to have a ton of potential. Xsepower dominated the tier two scene with the AWP on forZe for most of the past few years, including a 1.20 Rating across 366 maps played in 2019. X5G7V is a fresh new talent that has been making a name for himself this year, including a great showing at the recent CIS RMR event, IEM Fall 2021.
- The winning team will move on to face the winner of the other series on this slate in a best-of-three for the final IEM Winter 2021 spot. Would IEM Winter be the most important event of the year for these teams? Certainly not for ENCE, who likely have a majority of their focus set on the upcoming PGL Major Stockholm. NAVI already decided that they don’t want to play at IEM winter, granted they have other tournaments that they will be committed to, but the fact that NAVI are willing to skip this one does seem relevant. I tend to think that K23 have somewhat of an advantage as the underdog since this isn’t necessarily a ‘must-win’ for the favorite.
For maps, both teams like to play Nuke, so we will likely see that map played, and it could certainly end up as the decider. ENCE should continue to ban Inferno while K23 should remove Vertigo. From there, the map that would make the most sense for K23 would be Overpass, while ENCE could go for Mirage, where they have won five in a row and 10 of their last 11, with the only loss coming in quadruple overtime against OG. ENCE should have an advantage in the map pool especially since K23 have a new lineup, but I do think that K23 could win on Overpass based on both team’s recent form on that map. From there, Nuke & Mirage are K23's two other most played maps besides Inferno with their new roster, so they could end up feeling pretty confident with the map pool unless ENCE decide to change things up.
I give ENCE an edge here, but I do see plenty of potential for K23 as the underdog, and I think this could be a scrappy series. Stacking three from ENCE could make some sense, but I’m willing to mix in some K23 players too. Spinx & hades are my favorite options on ENCE at their respective prices, though $9,800 does make Spinx the most expensive play on the slate. Dycha has seemed to cool down recently and $8,800 feels like too much to pay on this slate. I prefer doto over Snappi for value. N0rb3r7 would probably be the “safest” play on K23 at $6,200, which just seems too cheap for his possible upside. I think that xsepower still has a huge ceiling these days, but his $7,800 price tag does seem a bit expensive given the odds. Fame, neaLaN and X5G7V are really risky, but I think that all of them could be capable of paying off in this spot if you want to roll the dice.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
n0rb3r7 ($6,200) | hades ($8,000) | Spinx ($9,800) | xsepower ($7,800) | fame ($5,800) | doto ($6,000) | X5G7V ($4,200)
Spirit (World rank: #20) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (World rank: #32) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Spirit (-175) | FunPlus Phoenix (+140)
Map Handicap: Spirit -1.5 (+175) | FunPlus Phoenix +1.5 (-220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket semi-final of IEM Winter 2021 Europe Closed Qualifier
- Spirit - stats at event: degster 1.30 | mir 1.13 | sdy 0.98 | magixx 0.88 | chopper 0.80
- Spirit - stats past three months: degster 1.20 | mir 1.15 | magixx 1.08 | sdy 1.06 | chopper 0.91
- FunPlus Phoenix - stats at event: STYKO 1.18 | zehN 1.15 | Maden 1.07 | Farlig 1.01 | emi 0.93
- FunPlus Phoenix - stats past three months: Farlig 1.11 | STYKO 1.08 | zehN 1.07 | Maden 1.06 | emi 0.95
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. Emi had not yet joined the team as the IGL when FPX faced Spirit back in January, when Spirit swept the best-of-five, 3-0. ChrisJ was temporarily with the team as they were determining who there future IGL would be, with suNny as another option.
Prediction/Narrative: Spirit wins 2-0.
These rosters have both been together for quite a bit, with the most recent addition, emi, joining FPX in April 2021. Similar to the other match on the slate, one team qualified for the Major, and other didn’t. Spirit earned themselves ‘Challenger Status’ at the upcoming Major, while FPX fell short of even qualifying. Thus, we could once again make the argument that the underdog has more to play for here. Still, FunPlus Phoenix are a team on the decline since reaching number 14 in the world earlier in the year, and they probably expected to earn a spot over teams like Copenhagen Flames & Movistar Riders, so I can’t imagine that they are feeling too good right about now. Maybe this could be a bit of a bounce back opportunity for them, but they also face a tough opponent with Spirit.
Spirit typically ban Vertigo, while FPX typically ban Mirage, so both maps should be removed to start. Inferno would then be open for FPX to pick, which would make sense since it has been one of their strongest maps while it has been Spirit’s weakest in recent months. Most of FPX’s ‘dominance’ on Inferno has come against tier two opposition, and they just lost to SAW, so Spirit’s 2-5 W/L record on that map in the past three months does not necessarily scare me. The rest of the map pool should be well in the favor of Spirit with Dust2 as their top map besides Mirage. Both teams like Nuke and it could very well be the decider, which would be fine for Spirit considering they have now won six in a row on the map. This sets up as a 2-1 win for Spirit on paper, but they are one of the best teams in the world on a good day, and I think that they can easily sweep FPX here, all things considered.
On Draftkings, Spirit is my favorite team to stack three from. Degster & mir are the go-to studs, and I really like mir at $8,200, especially compared to magixx at the same exact price. Sdy & chopper both look like good value options, with chopper being more inconsistent, and thus carrying more risk, so sdy certainly seems better at only $800 more. I think that best case scenario for FPX would be to win one map, though they could maybe steal the series on Nuke if that ends up as the decider. Either way, they are not a priority for me on this slate. If I was playing FPX, then Maden would be my clear favorite at a ridiculously low price of $5,400. STYKO, zehN then Farlig would be order for the other options that I’d consider in a stack, but my main focus is definitely Spirit.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
mir ($8,200) | degster ($9,400) | sdy ($6,400) | magixx ($8,200) | chopper ($5,600) | Maden ($5,400)