Gambit (World rank: #4) vs. FURIA (World rank: #18) - 11:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-350) | FURIA (+270)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-105) | FURIA +1.5 (-120)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of the Champions Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021. This match will take place at Avicii Arena in front of a live audience.
- Gambit - stats at event: sh1ro 1.40 | nafany 1.23 | Hobbit 1.19 | Ax1Le 1.14 | interz 0.96
- Gambit - stats past three months: sh1ro 1.34 | Hobbit 1.19 | Ax1Le 1.16 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.97
- FURIA - stats at event: KSCERATO 1.23 | yuurih 1.17 | VINI 1.05 | drop 1.03 | arT 0.99
- FURIA - stats past three months: KSCERATO 1.23 | yuurih 1.19 | arT 1.10 | VINI 1.06 | drop 1.04
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other since drop was not yet in the lineup when the teams met in September at ESL Pro League S14, and FURIA’s coach, guerri, was filling in for honda. Gambit dominated that series 2-0 (16-8 Inferno / 16-5 Vertigo) and Hobbit led the way with 40 kills and a 1.49 Rating across two maps.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-0.
Drop was ‘called up’ from the FURIA Academy roster just a couple of months ago, and this new FURIA lineup has been on fire having won 22 of their 30 maps played. FURIA did well during Legends Stage as the fifth highest rated team with a 1.09 Rating across six maps played, though they had a fairly easy path to playoffs, beating MOUZ, Liquid and Entropiq. Still, Gambit seems to be much more of a contender to win this event, and this should be an easy series for them on paper. The one ‘concern’ for Gambit would maybe be the lack of experience in front of a LAN crowd for some of their players, but let’s not forget that drop is the youngest player left in the playoffs at 17 years old, so I think that neither team has much of an edge in that regard.
FURIA will likely pick Inferno here, which is their most played map with their current lineup, and their W/L record has been solid at 7-3 across 10 maps played. Gambit have had mixed results on Inferno recently, but their grenade protocols on that map are world class as we saw in their 16-6 win over NiP earlier in the event, and I would give Gambit an edge over the Brazilians, though FURIA can compete with anybody on Inferno. Gambit have several maps that they would feel comfortable on in this spot, though Vertigo seems most likely with Overpass as another possibility. Gambit have been the highest rated team in the world on Vertigo in 2021, so it is safe to say that they would be the clear favorites on that map. All in all, this has the makings of a 2-0 sweep for Gambit. FURIA can maybe look to compete on Inferno, but the rest of the map pool should be well in the favor of Gambit, so they should have this series locked up 2-1 if we do see a third map.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Hobbit ($8,600) | sh1ro ($9,200) | Ax1Le ($8,000) | nafany ($7,000) | interz ($5,800)
I really like stacking three from Gambit here. Sh1ro leads his team on Inferno with a 1.28 Rating across five maps played in the past three months, while Hobbit leads his team on Vertigo with a 1.31 Rating across nine maps played during that time. Sh1ro is second on his team in terms of Rating on Vertigo, while Hobbit is second on his team on Inferno, so they are the clear priorities here. Ax1Le & nafany both look like good plays, while interz is a bit riskier as a support player for his team. I am not looking to target anybody on FURIA here.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Vitality (World rank: #3) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-340) | Vitality (+260)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (Even) | Vitality +1.5 (-125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of the Champions Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021. This match will take place at Avicii Arena in front of a live audience.
- NAVI - stats at event: b1t 1.44 | s1mple 1.40 | electronic 1.36 | Boombl4 1.08 | Perfecto 1.00
- NAVI - stats past three months: s1mple 1.30 | electronic 1.14 | b1t 1.10 | Perfecto 1.05 | Boombl4 0.96
- Vitality - stats at event: ZywOo 1.33 | apEX 1.10 | shox 1.04 | Kyojin 0.96 | misutaaa 0.92
- Vitality - stats past three months: ZywOo 1.31 | apEX 1.04 | shox 1.04 | misutaaa 1.04 | Kyojin 0.95
H2H Data:
These rosters last faced each other in September in a best-of-five for the ESL Pro League S14 Grand Final, and NAVI won that series 3-2 (16-10 Dust2 / 6-16 Inferno / 16-11 Nuke / 7-16 Overpass / 16-14 Mirage). ZywOo led the way with 102 kills and a 1.23 Rating across five maps despite his team falling short of the win.
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-1.
Yes, NAVI is the best team in the world, and yes, s1mple will almost certainly be named the HLTV number one player of 2021. However, are we sure that NAVI should be (-340) moneyline favorites against Vitality? ZywOo was absolutely locked in during the elimination games that Vitality faced during Legends Stage, and we know what he is capable of as the HLTV number one player of 2019 & 2020, plus he has teammates that are all capable of stepping up with some added firepower too. The broadcast showed a graphic on Thursday that said about 98% of CS:GO players picked NAVI to win this match-up in their pick ‘em, and I think that goes to show that the French are severely underestimated here. Plus, s1mple has always seemed to be ‘cursed’ at Majors, and if things start to go wrong early for NAVI, then that narrative could maybe get into the heads of the players. It may be nit-picky analysis, but it is hard to find reasons to pick against this NAVI roster that has been rolling ever since b1t was named to the starting lineup.
The best-of-five that these teams played in September demonstrated that these teams have different strengths and weaknesses with the map pool. NAVI have been the highest rated team in the world on Nuke against top 50 opponents in 2021, and I think that would be their best choice here considering they have now won 16 in a row on that map. Inferno & Overpass were the two maps that Vitality beat NAVI on last time, but the French have lost three in a row on each of those maps, so who knows what they are most confident with at the moment. I think that Inferno makes the most sense though since NAVI don’t play a lot of that map. At the end of the day, both teams are elite and have incredibly strong map pools, but NAVI should have a bit of edge based on their dominance of certain maps, like Nuke. Still, I disagree with the odds here and think that Vitality has more of a chance than these odds reflect. I have NAVI winning this one in three maps in a close series.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
s1mple ($9,000) | ZywOo ($7,800) | b1t ($7,600) | shox ($5,400) | electronic ($8,400) | apEX ($6,800) | Perfecto ($6,600)
My favorite stack here is s1mple & ZywOo. I think that this series will be pretty close, and these are the two best players in the world. NAVI would be my preferred team to target overall though, and b1t looks like an excellent play at $7,600 considering he was the highest rated player at the event during the Legends Stage. Another play that stands out here is shox at only $5,400. He is an experienced veteran that won’t be affected by the pressure of playing in front of a crowd, and that price feels way too cheap for a player of his caliber.