Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #11) - 11:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-180) | Virtus.pro (+150)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+165) | Virtus.pro +1.5 (-205)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of the Champions Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021. This match will take place at Avicii Arena in front of a live audience.
- Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.31 | refrezh 1.16 | sjuush 1.14 | cadiaN 1.09 | TeSeS 1.04
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.16 | refrezh 1.13 | cadiaN 1.09 | TeSeS 1.05 | sjuush 1.04
- Virtus.pro - Rating at event: YEKINDAR 1.09 | Qikert 1.07 | FL1T 0.99 | buster 0.98 | Jame 0.95
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.18 | Jame 1.14 | FL1T 1.10 | Qikert 1.03 | buster 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams have not played each other since June 2020, and both have made multiple roster changes since then, so that result is fairly irrelevant.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
Virtus.pro removes Nuke
Heroic picks Overpass
Virtus.pro picks Inferno
Heroic removes Mirage
Virtus.pro removes Ancient
Vertigo is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Overpass past three months (10 maps): 8-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 71.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (10 maps): refrezh +49 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | stavn +44 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | TeSeS +4 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | sjuush -8 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | cadiaN +8 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Heroic- Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 7-1 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 79.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): refrezh +42 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | stavn +20 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | cadiaN +18 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | TeSeS -7 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 81.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): TeSeS +9 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | refrezh +15 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | cadiaN +10 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | sjuush +10 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 71.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (2 maps): Qikert +4 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | buster +9 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | FL1T +10 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | YEKINDAR -1 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 90.0% pistol round win percent, 77.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): YEKINDAR +21 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | Qikert +9 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Jame +33 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | FL1T +4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | buster -1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 62.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 40.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): buster +14 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | YEKINDAR -13 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Qikert +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Jame +6 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
*Stats for VP only include maps played with FL1T in the lineup*
Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.
Heroic lost their opening best-of-one in the Legends Stage to NAVI, 11-16, which is a promising result given the fact that NAVI look unstoppable as the number one team in the world. The Danes then went on to win three straight series, including a best-of-one against the French powerhouse, Vitality, a best-of-one Danish derby against the former champs, Astralis, and a best-of-three Danish derby against the near-Cinderella story team, Copenhagen Flames. Those are three impressive results to rattle off in a row, and Heroic seem to be hot at the right time as they were the fourth highest rated team during the Legends Stage with a 1.15 Rating across six maps played. On the other side, VP started with a close win in a best-of-one against Vitality, but they were quickly facing elimination after losing to two CIS powerhouses: NAVI & Gambit. The team showed resilience against MOUZ after losing map one, and they came back to win that best-of-three series, including a double overtime victory on the decider map, Vertigo. VP were in a similar situation against FaZe after losing map one and falling behind on map two, but they never gave up in some meaningful spots. VP had some difficult match-ups, but Heroic played some tough teams too, so I do think that is still fair to say Heroic looked better during the Legends Stage. The stats and the eye test will tell you that Heroic has been the better team as of late, and that is to be expected since VP just recently added FL1T to the lineup, but we do have to respect the fact that you can never count out Virtus.pro no matter what the score line is.
The map pool is a bit weird here since VP permaban Nuke, which is Heroic’s favorite map by far. Heroic should continue to ban Dust2, so we can probably expect to see VP pick their go-to map at the moment, Inferno, despite the fact that Heroic have been dominant on that map in the past three months with a 7-1 W/L record. It would make sense for Heroic to pick Overpass since that is their second most played map behind Nuke, and their win rate is excellent with an 8-2 W/L record in the past three months. VP have had some success on Overpass so it might not be the best ‘punish pick’ against their new lineup, but I still think it would be the best option for the Danes. Vertigo would likely be the decider map in this scenario. I think that the map pool should favor Heroic, though both teams would feel pretty comfortable with these maps.
I think that this is Heroic’s series to lose, and I do think that the Danes should sweep if they can continue the form that they have shown in the past week. On Draftkings, a three stack from Heroic would be my preferred play, and refrezh has to be one of the main targets based on projected maps and pricing. Stavn has led his team with a 1.31 Rating through the Legends Stage, which also makes him the seventh highest rated player overall. The maps should be good for him as well, so he does look like a great spend-up option. TeSeS has had a quiet event so far, but he still should have a massive kill ceiling, and $6,400 seems worth targeting despite his recent struggles. I like cadiaN simply because he should feed off the energy of the crowd, and $7,000 seems too cheap for this spot. Sjuush should be a fine value play at only $5,600. I’m not looking to play anyone on VP here, but it is hard to completely ignore YEKINDAR and the form that he has shown as of late.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
refrezh ($8,200) | stavn ($9,200) | TeSeS ($6,400) | cadiaN ($7,000) | sjuush ($5,600) | YEKINDAR ($8,000)
G2 (World rank: #9) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #2) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-115) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (-110)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+240) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +1.5 (-310)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Quarter-Finals of the Champions Stage of PGL Major Stockholm 2021. This match will take place at Avicii Arena in front of a live audience
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.38 | huNter- 1.26 | AmaNEk 1.22 | nexa 1.14 | JaCkz 0.91
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.31 | huNter- 1.12 | AmaNEk 1.05 | nexa 1.01 | JaCkz 0.95
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: hampus 1.14 | device 1.07 | REZ 0.88 | Plopski 0.87 | LNZ 0.83
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: device 1.16 | hampus 1.10 | REZ 1.08 | Plopski 0.98 | LNZ 0.90
H2H Data:
- These rosters last faced in October at Battle of Betway, which was a showmatch, so I would recommend completely ignoring that result. Prior to that, NiP won 2-1 (7-16 Ancient / 16-14 Mirage / 16-9 Inferno) in September at BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021. NiKo led the way with 76 kills and a 1.45 Rating across three maps, despite his team coming up short. The rosters faced one other time in June at BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021, and G2 won that series 2-1 (16-11 Dust2 / 13-16 Nuke / 19-17 Inferno) and NiKo was the highest rated player with a 1.19 Rating across three maps, though his 72 kills were second to huNter-, who finished with 74 kills.
Map Projections:
G2 removes Overpass
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Vertigo
G2 picks Mirage
Ninjas in Pyjamas picks Ancient
G2 removes Nuke
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Dust2
Inferno is left over
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (15 maps): 7-8 W/L record, 56.7% pistol round win percent, 76.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (15 maps): NiKo +98 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | huNter- +36 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | nexa +12 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | AmaNEk +2 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 87.5% pistol round win percent, 77.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): huNter- +34 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | NiKo +35 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | AmaNEk +4 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): NiKo +35 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | huNter- +16 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | AmaNEk +1 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Key stats on Mirage past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 62.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): hampus +4 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | device +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | REZ -14 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Key stats on Ancient past three months (9 maps): 8-1 W/L record, 44.4% pistol round win percent, 82.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Ninjas in Pyjamas- Notable performers on Ancient past three months (9 maps): device +36 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | hampus -1 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | REZ +30 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Ninjas in Pyjamas- Key stats on Inferno past three months (14 maps): 10-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 79.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (14 maps): device +67 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | hampus +35 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | REZ +15 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Plopski +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: NiP wins 2-1.
Will the home crowd make a difference for NiP? I tend to think so, especially in a match-up such as this that looks so close on paper. The odds have this as a near pick ‘em, and NiP won the last time that these teams met (excluding the recent showmatch), so I do think the x-factor of the crowd is enough to tip the scales in their favor. G2 took care of business during the Legends Stage, going 3-0 and finishing as the third highest rated team with a 1.18 Rating across four maps played. NiP also started out 2-0 after their initial best-of-ones, but they drew tough match-ups in the best-of-threes having to face both NAVI & Gambit before finally beating Copenhagen Flames to earn their third win. So yes, G2 have had better form in the past week, but if NiP instead faced Entropiq in a best-of-three, then they would likely have gone 3-0 as well. Still, we can’t take away from the fact that G2 have claimed that they were working towards the Major all year, and they have put their money where their mouth is, at least to this point, though their match-ups certainly seemed much easier.
I’m expecting the same maps as the last best-of-three that these teams played, although they did trade map picks on that occasion. NiP have only lost once on Ancient in the past three months across nine maps played, though that one loss was to G2. Their dominance on that map is clear, and I think that they can beat G2 in this rematch as long as G2 does not get off to another 9-0 start where they are really able to build their CT economy. Mirage makes sense as the map pick for G2, especially since device has limited experience on the map since it was the permaban for his previous team, Astralis. G2 have a losing record on Mirage in the past three months, but they have won seven of their last 10 with a 79.7% 5v4 conversion rate during that time. Inferno would likely be the decider since both teams are excellent on that map. NiP have had better form on Inferno recently, but that was previously one of G2’s strongest maps. I think that the map pool is pretty even here, and this could be a tight series that ends in a banger on Inferno.
I have this as a close series, but I do think that NiP will come out on top, especially with the crowd on their side. On Draftkings, my preferred stack would be Ninjas in Pyjamas, although I do think that some G2 exposure could be a good idea, particularly mixing in NiKo, who has been on fire as the fourth highest rated at Legends Stage with a 1.38 Rating across four maps played. My favorite play here would be device as I expect to see him step up on the big stage, and his price is reasonable at under $9K. REZ has struggled at this event, but he is typically a consistent source of firepower for the Ninjas, and I like playing him now that he is priced down to $6,800. Hampus has been making impact plays for his team and has to be considered at $7,800 since he leads his team with a 1.14 Rating through the Legends Stage. Plopski & LNZ are risky value plays, but I don’t mind rolling the dice on either one. HuNter- is the only other play from G2 that I have any confidence in besides NiKo.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
device ($8,600) | REZ ($6,800) | hampus ($7,800) | NiKo ($8,800) | Plopski ($5,800) | huNter- ($7,600) | LNZ ($5,000)