Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. AGO (World rank: #137) - 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-2060) | AGO (+1165)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-390) | AGO +1.5 (+300)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+340) | Under 2.5 (-450)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
- NAVI - Rating at event: N/A
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.27 | b1t 1.07 | electronic 1.02 | Perfecto 1.01 | headtr1ck 1.32 (with NAVI Junior)
- AGO - Rating at event: N/A
- AGO - Rating past three months: mwlky 1.12 | ultimate 1.03 | F1KU 1.01 | Furlan 0.95 | leman 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
AGO removes Overpass
NAVI removes Vertigo
AGO picks Inferno
NAVI picks Nuke
AGO removes Dust2
NAVI removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.
The biggest news here is that NAVI will temporarily be without their IGL, Boombl4, as he just tested positive for COVID. This means NAVI are borrowing headtr1ck from their academy team as a stand-in. Despite the last-minute substitution, NAVI are still gigantic favorites at (-2060) moneyline odds in this spot. As the number one team in the world, NAVI are the highest-ranked team at ESL Pro League Season 15, while AGO are the lowest-ranked team, so this is quite the lopsided match-up. Headtr1ck is not in the Draftkings player pool, but he has been really solid as of late, and I think he benefits from playing in isolation for this match, so he could certainly have impact on the server, which would potentially take away kills from the rest of the team. Meanwhile, Boombl4 should be in 0% of your lineups since he is not playing. NAVI are the best team in the world, and this should be a quick series regardless of the maps, and I could even see NAVI possibly picking something other than Nuke, like maybe Dust2, in order to speed run this series. NAVI have had a couple of questionable performances to start 2022, but I have no doubt that they will win this series against a much weaker team that has shuffled their roster several times in the past few months.
- Electronic leads NAVI in 2022 in opening duel attempts (27.4%) while s1mple leads in terms of opening duel success rate (67%) across 19 maps played. Perhaps a soft match-up against AGO could lead to a massive day for electronic given his aggression.
- On Inferno, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.25 Rating and 1.47 K/D ratio across one map played in 2022.
- On Nuke, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.25 Rating and 1.38 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
- On Mirage, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.36 Rating and 1.51 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
electronic ($8,400) | s1mple ($10,400) | b1t ($9,600) | Perfecto ($7,600) | F1KU ($5,000)
Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Complexity (World rank: #27) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-460) | Complexity (+345)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (-125) | Complexity +1.5 (Even)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+150) | Under 2.5 (-185)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
- Heroic - Rating at event: N/A
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.27 | cadiaN 1.11 | sjuush 1.10 | TeSeS 1.09 | refrezh 0.98
- Complexity - Rating at event: N/A
- Complexity - Rating past three months: floppy 1.10 | junior 1.09 | Grim 1.04 | FaNg 1.04 | JT 0.91
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Complexity removes Mirage
Heroic removes Dust2
Complexity picks Vertigo
Heroic picks Nuke
Complexity removes Overpass
Heroic removes Ancient
Inferno is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Complexity wins 2-1.
Heroic come into this event fresh off of a 1st place finish at Pinnacle Winter Series 3, but let’s not forget that the Danes are the kings of online, and that event was online unlike ESL Pro League Season 15. In 2021, Heroic went 27-33 across 60 maps played on LAN, and they went 72-31 across 103 maps played online. Now, there are other factors in play with those statistics like match-ups, but I do think it is significant considering Heroic reached number one in the world during the online era and haven’t touched it again since LAN events came back. This event is studio-LAN, so there isn’t a live audience, but Heroic are still out of their true comfort zone regardless. They’ve been solid overall in 2022 with a 13-5 W/L across 18 maps played, but it could be time to ‘sell high’ on Heroic as such a heavy favorite. Complexity have a mere 10-12 W/L record across 22 maps played in 2022, but they are starting to get hot with a 5-0 W/L record in the past month that includes a win over Liquid. I would consider Heroic to be favorites on Nuke, though that used to be a strong map for the former Extra Salt core. Beyond that, Complexity are capable of winning on Vertigo, Ancient, Inferno, and possibly even Overpass. Thus, I feel as though the odds/Draftkings pricing is way too far in the favor of Heroic, and I would much rather ride with Complexity in this spot. Playing Complexity could possibly pay off handsomely even if they are only able to win a single map.
- JT leads CoL in 2022 in opening duel attempts (25.6%) while junior leads in terms of opening duel success rate (57.9%) across 22 maps played. JT is the second-cheapest player on the slate at only $4,400, so if he is able to get some opening kills then he could be the key to winning a GP, though he is certainly a risky play.
- On Vertigo, FaNg leads CoL with a 1.25 Rating and 1.30 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
- On Nuke, floppy leads CoL with a 1.02 Rating and 0.98 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
- On Inferno, floppy leads CoL with a 1.16 Rating, while junior leads with a 1.25 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
floppy ($7,200) | FaNg ($5,800) | junior ($6,400) | JT ($4,400) | refrezh ($6,000) | TeSeS ($7,000) | Grim ($5,200) | stavn ($10,000)
Astralis (World rank: #11) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #48) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-215) | Evil Geniuses (+175)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+150) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-190)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
- Astralis - Rating at event: N/A
- Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.15 | k0nfig 1.04 | gla1ve 0.93 | Xyp9x 0.91 | Farlig N/A
- Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: N/A+
- Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: autimatic 1.19 | RUSH 1.06 | Stewie2K 1.05 | CeRq 0.97 | Brehze 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Evil Geniuses removes Ancient
Astralis removes Vertigo
Evil Geniuses picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
Evil Geniuses removes Mirage
Astralis removes Dust2
Overpass is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-0.
Farlig is making his debut with Astralis, and I am personally excited to see the potential of this Danish roster that has struggled with a 14-18 W/L record across 32 maps played in 2022. Astralis brought in overwhelming firepower with blameF & k0nfig, but they were unable to find a competent tier-one AWPer since device left. I think that Farlig is a perfect fit for Astralis. Farlig closed out the final three months of 2021 with a 1.09 Rating across 32 maps played as a member of FunPlus Pheonix (though he did not play in November or December). He is not exactly an overly-aggressive, flashy AWPer, but he will hit the shots the needs to, which should stabilize this underperforming roster. Speaking of underperforming, we have Evil Geniuses, AKA North America’s last dance. EG have a 5-5 W/L record across 10 maps played with this lineup, but two of those wins came against low-tier NA teams, UYU and Carpe Diem, while their most recent loss came against Party Astronauts, who just went 0-5 in Group C of ESL Pro League Season 15. Autimatic has actually been playing really well since returning from VALORANT, but it is not a good sign for EG when their second highest-rated player is their support player, RUSH. The map pool is somewhat unclear here since EG have only played each map once with this lineup, besides Inferno and their permaban, Ancient. If these teams were to play a month from now, then I think Astralis would be much bigger favorites, but the fact that this is Farlig’s debut is probably keeping the odds close. I have faith in Farlig to perform well right away and I have faith in the superior Danish firepower, so I think this should be a quick series for Astralis on basically any map that is played. Brehze & CeRq are very cheap on Draftkings and could maybe be worth a look in GPPs, but autimatic is the only player on EG that I have any real confidence in at the moment. I would much rather take a stand with Astralis and hammer the Danes here.
- K0nfig leads Astralis in 2022 in opening duel attempts (25.1%) while blameF leads in terms of opening duel success rate (57.7%) across 32 maps played. K0nfig is one of the most aggressive riflers in tier one, especially when he is hot, which could give him a huge ceiling on this slate.
- On Inferno, k0nfig leads Astralis with a 1.09 Rating and 1.04 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
- On Nuke, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.11 Rating and 1.08 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.
- On Overpass, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.25 Rating and 1.24 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
k0nfig ($8,200) | blameF ($9,200) | Farlig ($6,600) | Xyp9x ($5,600) | Gla1ve ($7,400) | autimatic ($7,800) | Brehze ($4,800)
*Top Stacks: NAVI, Astralis, Complexity
*Favorite captain options: electronic, k0nfig, s1mple, blameF, floppy, b1t
*Favorite value plays: FaNg, Farlig, Perfecto, junior, Xyp9x, JT, refrezh