Vitality (World rank: #12) vs. G2 (World rank: #4)
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (Even) | G2 (-125)
Map Handicap: Vitality +1.5 (-295) | G2 -1.5 (+230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-one series for the Group A upper bracket final of IEM Summer 2021. The winner gets a bye to the semi-finals of the playoffs, and the losing team will go to the quarter-finals.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.63 | misutaaa 1.25 | Kyojin 1.22 | apEX 1.16 | shox 1.11
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.31 | shox 1.02 | misutaaa 0.99 | apEX 0.99 | Kyojin 0.92
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.27 | huNter- 1.27 | AmaNEk 1.10 | JaCkz 1.03 | nexa 0.98
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.16 | huNter- 1.14 | AmaNEk 1.01 | nexa 0.99 | JaCkz 0.93
H2H Data
These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced in March 2021, RpK was still on Vitality instead of Kyojin. G2 swept that series 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-6 Vertigo) and the Kovac cousins (NiKo and huNter-) led the way with 91 combined kills across two maps.
Projected Map
Vitality removes Mirage
G2 removes Overpass
Vitality picks Dust2
G2 picks Inferno
Vitality removes Ancient
G2 removes Nuke
Vertigo is left over
The map pool will continue to be tricky to predict with Ancient in the mix. Vitality have banned it in both of their series this tournament, so I think they will remove it here, although perhaps they prioritize banning Mirage since it is G2’s most played map. Vitality just picked Dust2 versus Gambit and won, so I imagine they stick with it here. G2 should go for Inferno, especially if Mirage does get banned by Vitality. Vertigo would make sense as the decider in this scenario.
Vitality - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 12.5% pistol round win percent, 71.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Vitality - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): ZywOo +20 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | misutaaa +15 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Inferno past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 16.7% pistol round win percent, 72.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.9% round win percent after receiving first death
Vitality - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (3 maps): apEX +6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | shox +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (11 maps): 5-6 W/L record, 68.2% pistol round win percent, 67.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.9% round win percent after receiving first death
G2 - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (11 maps): huNter- +22 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | NiKo -3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (16 maps): 12-4 W/L record, 65.6% pistol round win percent, 75.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.4% round win percent after receiving first death
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (16 maps): huNter- +53 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | NiKo +37 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | nexa +4 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | AmaNEk +6 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Analysis
Both teams look to be in good form in this tournament. Vitality has not yet dropped a map, beating Complexity in the best-of-one, followed by a 2-0 sweep against Gambit. G2 dropped only a single round in their 16-1 victory in the best-of-one against Extra Salt, and then beat FPX 2-1. The one map G2 lost was the new map, Ancient, and we saw Maden have a standout performance: 42 Kills, 19 Deaths, 154.2 ADR, and a 2.15 Rating. I am not sure that we can count on consistency from players like misutaaa and Kyojin, and I think G2 is still the better team right now. HuNter- looks to be the best DFS play from this series, and I prefer stacking G2, but ZywOo is usually a lock even when his team loses. If Vitality does want to win this series, then I think they would need a big performance from apEX, so he looks like a great value play at only $5,400 on Draftkings, if you want to stack Vitality. AmaNEk is underpriced as well right now in my opinion given his level of play with the AWP recently.
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #10) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #9)
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-130) | Virtus.pro (+105)
Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (+260) | VP +1.5 (-330)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (Even)
- This is a best-of-one series for the Group B lower bracket final of IEM Summer 2021. The winner advances to the quarter-finals while the losing team is eliminated.
- NiP - Rating at event: REZ 1.10 | device 1.03 | hampus 1.03 | Plopski 1.02 | LNZ 0.99
- NiP- Rating past three months: REZ 1.13 | device 1.13 | LNZ 1.04 | hampus 1.02 | plopski 1.02
- VP - Rating at event: Jame 1.16 | Qikert 1.11 | YEKINDAR 0.98 | SANJI 0.93 | buster 0.82-
- VP - Rating past three months: Jame 1.18 | YEKINDAR 1.11 | Qikert 1.01 | buster 1.01 | SANJI 0.92
H2H Data
These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced each other in February 2021, nawwk and ztr were still on NiP instead of device and LNZ. VP won that series 2-0 (16-9 Inferno / 16-7 Overpass) and everyone on the team had a positive K/D ratio besides SANJI.
Projected Map
NiP removes Vertigo
VP removes Nuke
NiP picks Mirage
VP picks Inferno
NiP removes Dust2
VP removes Overpass
Ancient is left over
The map pool will continue to be tricky to predict with Ancient in the mix. Vertigo & Nuke should be the first two maps removed. NiP might go for Mirage, which was their map pick last series against Heroic, although Overpass could be an option as well. I think VP will pick Inferno over Dust2, since Inferno has been the better map for them recently. Both teams have been willing to play Ancient and they both are 1-0 on that map so far, so it is a possible decider map for sure.
NiP - Key stats on Mirage past three months (13 maps): 6-7 W/L record, 42.3% pistol round win percent, 65.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.6% round win percent after receiving first death
NiP - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (13 maps): hampus +20 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | REZ +4 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | LNZ (2 maps) +4 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (13 maps): 7-6 W/L record, 53.8% pistol round win percent, 69.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.5% round win percent after receiving first death
NiP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (13 maps): REZ +24 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Plopski +2 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
VP - Key stats on Mirage past three months (10 maps): 4-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 67.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.6% round win percent after receiving first death
VP - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (10 maps): Jame +34 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | YEKINDAR +7 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | buster +9 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
VP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (13 maps): 8-5 W/L record, 61.5% pistol round win percent, 76.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.0% round win percent after receiving first death
VP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (13 maps): Jame +63 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | YEKINDAR -5 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | SANJI +16 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | buster +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Analysis
Ninjas in Pyjamas are the favorites to win this series, but I do not see them winning easily if they even win at all. NiP will have to decide which map they want to pick into VP. Do they pick Overpass and give Virtus.pro CT side to start? That might not be wise since VP have a 64.2% CT round win percent on Overpass in the past three months and they could run away with that map easily. Mirage makes some sense, especially since the new player for NiP, LNZ, has looked good on that map. NiP have lost Mirage three of the last five times and think that map could go either way in this spot. So, the map pool just does not feel comfortable for Ninjas in Pyjamas in this series. They did look good on Ancient, but VP just beat Spirit there in overtime, so both teams have experience now. I think it makes more sense to prioritize VP for DFS in this series, and Jame looks to be a stud. YEKINDAR would be the next best play, with qikert, buster, and SANJI all looking to be interesting cheap plays. For the NiP side of things, I do like device, but he is really expensive on Draftkings. Hampus would be my second favorite play for Ninjas in Pyjamas, but I would mainly focus on Virtus.pro.
**Favorite Stacks: G2, Virtus.pro
**Favorite CPT plays: huNter-, Jame, NiKo, YEKINDAR, ZywOo, device
**Favorite value plays: AmaNEk, nexa, qikert, buster, SANJI, apEX, hampus