Fiend (World rank: #23) vs. 777 (World rank: #83) 

Moneyline Odds: Fiend (-975) | 777 (+650) 

Map Handicap: Fiend -1.5 (-240) | 777 +1.5 (+195)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+240) | Under 2.5 (-305)

  • This is a best-of-three series for group stage of Elisa Invitational Summer 2021 - Swiss round 4 (teams with a 2-1 record). The winner will advance to the playoffs while the loser is not yet eliminated.
  • Fiend - Rating at event: dream3r 1.21 | REDSTAR 1.10 | h4rn 1.10 | v1c7oR 0.98 | bubble 0.91
  • Fiend - Rating past three months: dream3r 1.22| h4rn 1.22 | REDSTAR 1.19 | v1c7oR 1.07 | bubble 0.99
  • 777 - Rating at event: H4RR3 1.32 | Marcelious 1.12 | akez 1.04 | Ruyter 0.96 | mikki 0.91
  • 777 - Rating past three months:  Marcelious 1.20 | H4RR3 1.17 | mikki 1.05 | akez 1.01 | Ruyter 0.95

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Projected Maps

  • Fiend removes Vertigo
  • 777 removes Inferno
  • Fiend picks Dust2
  • 777 picks Overpass
  • Fiend removes Ancient
  • 777 removes Nuke
  • Mirage is left over.

The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Fiend typically ban Vertigo and 777 typically ban Inferno and I expect that to stay the same here. Both teams like Mirage so I expect that to get floated through as the decider. Fiend can pick basically any map and feel comfortable in this spot, though I think Dust2 makes the most sense. Overpass has been a strong map for 777 and I think it would be their best option against Fiend.

  • Fiend - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 81.2% pistol round win percent, 77.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 48.3% round win percent after receiving first death
  • Fiend - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): h4rn +51 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | dream3r +44 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | v1c7oR +14 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | REDSTAR +10 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
  • Fiend - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 87.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.2% round win percent after receiving first death
  • Fiend - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): dream3r +55 K/D Diff, 1.48 Rating | REDSTAR +33 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | bubble +45 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | h4rn +29 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
  • 777 - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (1 maps): 0-1 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 68.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 0.0% round win percent after receiving first death
  • 777 - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (1 maps): H4RR3 +5 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Marcelious +1 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
  • 777 - Key stats on Overpass past three months (1 maps): 1-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 66.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 40.0% round win percent after receiving first death
  • 777 - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (1 maps): Marcelious +9 K/D Diff, 1.63 Rating | H4RR3 +2 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating

Analysis

777 have only played seven maps together since adding Marcelious on trial, but they have looked really good in that short time with series wins against HAVU and SKADE, and they even took Entropiq to overtime on Vertigo in a losing effort. I was a bit surprised to see the odds on this series because I expected Fiend to be around a (-400) favorite max. Either way, it is tough to go against Fiend for DFS because they are still a much stronger team than 777, although you could maybe take shots on Marcelious and H4RR3. I think that this should be a 2-0 sweep for Fiend and 777 would be happy just to be competitive on their own map pick. The most logical play here has to be a three stack from Fiend, and my favorite plays in order are dream3r, REDSTAR, h4rn, bubble then v1c7oR. Everyone on Fiend is in play for me, and if you did want to mix in Marcelious/H4RR3 then I would only really do it as a one-off. 

 

Sangal (World rank: #50) vs. DBL PONEY (World rank: #27) 

Moneyline Odds: Sangal (+120) | DBL PONEY (-150)

Map Handicap: Sangal +1.5 (-230) | DBL PONEY -1.5 (+185)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series for group stage of Elisa Invitational Summer 2021 - Swiss round 4 (teams with a 1-2 record). The losing team is eliminated from the tournament.
  • Sangal - Rating at event: imoRR 1.15 | MAJ3R 1.10 | paz 1.07 | ngiN 0.93 | S3NSEY 0.81
  • Sangal - Rating past three months: imoRR 1.22 | paz 1.08 | MAJ3R 1.04 | S3NSEY 0.99 | ngiN 0.96
  • DBL PONEY - Rating at event: afro 1.15 | Lucky 1.03 | Ex3rcice 1.01 | bodyy 0.99 | Djoko 0.86
  • DBL PONEY - Rating past three months: afro 1.14 | Lucky 1.11 | bodyy 1.07 | Ex3rcice 1.06 | Djoko 1.03

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced in March, l0gicman was still on Sangal instead of S3NSEY and NBK- was still on DBL PONEY instead of Ex3rcice. DBL PONEY swept that series 2-0 (16-12 Dust2 / 16-11 Nuke).

Projected Maps

  • Sangal removes Overpass
  • DBL PONEY removes Mirage
  • Sangal picks Dust2
  • DBL PONEY picks Nuke
  • Sangal removes Vertigo 
  • DBL PONEY removes Ancient
  • Inferno is left over.

The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Overpass and Mirage are the usual bans for these teams and that should stay the same here. I think Sangal will go for Dust2 like they did last time against DBL PONEY, though it is possible that they go for Vertigo or Inferno. DBL PONEY should pick Nuke if it is left open. Inferno would be the most likely decider map in this scenario.

  • Sangal - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 66.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.1% round win percent after receiving first death
  • Sangal - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): imoRR +11 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | MAJ3R -2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
  • Sangal - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 20.0% pistol round win percent, 68.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 21.7% round win percent after receiving first death
  • Sangal - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): imoRR +8 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | MAJ3R -10 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | paz +1 K/D Diff, 0.98 Rating
  • DBL PONEY - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (1 maps): 0-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 55.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.3% round win percent after receiving first death
  • DBL PONEY - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (1 maps): afro +3 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Lucky +4 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating
  • DBL PONEY - Key stats on Nuke past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 76.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.4% round win percent after receiving first death
  • DBL PONEY - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (3 maps): afro +21 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | Lucky +14 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Ex3rcice +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | bodyy +1 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

Analysis

I think Sangal should win this series despite being an underdog and I think they definitely make for the better DFS stack. Sangal have lost three series in a row, but they have still been solid in the past month with series wins against Sprout, SAW, Sinners and Anonymo. The map pool would look very favorable for Sangal if Inferno does end up as the decider since they started the month of June with a five map win streak on Inferno and they have looked good on that map as of late including a win against BIG. DBL PONEY should pick Nuke which would put Sangal on the CT side to start. Sangal has a 54.7% win rate on that side in the past month and they have more upside as a team for DFS with 15 guaranteed rounds on the more beneficial CT side. I could easily see this series being really competitive and going to three maps, so having some exposure to DBL PONEY definitely makes some sense, with my favorites being Lucky, afro, and Ex3rcice based on pricing. My main focus will be on Sangal though, and imoRR looks like a smash play at only $8,600. The other members of Sangal are a bit riskier but paz, MAJ3R and S3NSEY are all in play for me with ngiN being my lowest priority. I think a three stack from Sangal could work here, and two from Sangal and one from DBL PONEY looks like a viable option as well to go along with a Fiend stack. 

**Favorite Stacks: Fiend, Sangal

**Favorite CPT plays: dream3r, imoRR, REDSTAR, h4rn, paz

**Favorite value plays: bubble, v1c7oR, MAJ3R, S3NSEY