CS:GO DFS Playbook - Spring Sweet Spring 3 06.23.2021 (Four best-of-three series)

 

Lyngby Vikings (World rank: #45) vs. Iberian Family (World rank: #67) 

Moneyline Odds: Lyngby Vikings (-180) | Iberian Family (+145) 

Map Handicap: Lyngby Vikings -1.5 (+160) | Iberian Family +1.5 (-195)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)

 

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Spring Sweet Spring 3 group stage - Swiss round 3 (teams with a 1-1 record).
  • Lyngby Vikings - Rating at event: maNkz 1.08 | Daffu 1.07 | J3nsyy 1.06 | raalz 0.98 | birdfromsky 0.91
  • Lyngby Vikings - Rating past three months: raalz 1.11 | Daffu 1.10 | maNkz 1.02 | J3nsyy 0.99 | birdfromsky 0.97
  • Iberian Family - Rating at event: SunPayus 1.14 | adamS 1.08 | dav1g 1.00 | Slaxx 0.97 | DeathZz 0.90
  • Iberian Family - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.26 | DeathZz 1.08 | adamS 1.02 | Slaxx 0.97 | dav1g 0.96

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced each other on June 14th, 2021, as part of the Spring Sweet Spring 3 Regionals. Lyngby Vikings swept that series 2-0 though it was very competitive (16-13 Overpass / 19-15 Inferno). MaNkz led the way with 53 kills, 94.6 ADR and a 1.40 Rating across two maps.

Projected Maps:

                Lyngby Vikings removes Dust2

                Iberian Family removes Ancient

                Lyngby Vikings picks Overpass

                Iberian Family picks Nuke

                Lyngby Vikings removes Mirage

                Iberian Family removes Vertigo

                Inferno is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Lyngby Vikings are on a four map winning streak on Ancient and Iberian Family have prioritized banning it so far, so that map should get removed to start. The projected maps above is the same as the last time these teams faced, with the exception of Iberian Family switching things up by picking Nuke instead of Inferno. Vertigo is a possible map we could see just because both teams are solid on it. 

 

Lyngby Vikings - Key stats on Overpass past three months (16 maps): 10-6 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 73.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.1% round win percent after receiving first death

Lyngby Vikings - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (16 maps): raalz +66 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | Daffu +49 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | J3nsyy +36 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | maNkz +11 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Lyngby Vikings - Key stats on Nuke past three months (14 maps): 6-8 W/L record, 39.3% pistol round win percent, 69.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.7% round win percent after receiving first death

Lyngby Vikings - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (14 maps): raalz +29 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Daffu +12 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

 

Iberian Family - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 77.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 22.9% round win percent after receiving first death

Iberian Family - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): SunPayus +19 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | adamS +9 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating

Iberian Family - Key stats on Nuke past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 17.5% round win percent after receiving first death

Iberian Family - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (4 maps): SunPayus +36 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | DeathZz +28 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating

 

Analysis:

I am expecting a really competitive series here and I do not think stacking three from one side makes much sense given that this is a four-series slate. Lyngby Vikings took this match-up last time, but it was such a close series that could have gone either way. I still slightly favor Lyngby Vikings in this series, but Iberian Family should be able to keep things close at the very least and Iberian Family looks like the better value for DFS. SunPayus has perhaps the most upside out of any player on the entire slate, so he makes a lot of sense as a target here at only $7,400. DeathZz looks like the next best play on Iberian Family to stack with him, but he has struggled as this event, so I do not feel as confident with him. The other three members of Iberian Family are all pretty volatile and are not priorities for me. Raalz, Daffu, and maNkz all look solid on the Lyngby Vikings side, with maNkz looking the best based on pricing, but I am not sold on any of them as locks, and their pricing seems too high compared to other options on the slate. There are some interesting pieces from this match-up, but I do not see a viable stack here since both teams will probably win a map and neither side should dominate.  

 

EXTREMUM (World rank: #25) vs. Sharks (World rank: #70) 

Moneyline Odds: EXTREMUM (-500) | Sharks (+370)

Map Handicap: EXTREMUM -1.5 (-135) | Sharks +1.5 (+110)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+160) | Under 2.5 (-200)

 

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Spring Sweet Spring 3 group stage - Swiss round 3 (teams with a 1-1 record).
  • EXTREMUM - Rating at event: Gratisfaction 1.25 | AZR 1.13 | Liazz 1.06 | BnTeT 1.03 | jkaem 1.03 
  • EXTREMUM - Rating past three months: jkaem 1.13 | BnTeT 1.09 | Gratisfaction 1.03 | Liazz 0.98 | AZR 0.97
  • Sharks - Rating at event: jnt 1.12 | Lucaozy 1.07 | zevy 1.02 | real 0.98 | pancc 0.92
  • Sharks - Rating past three months: zevy 1.19 | Lucaozy 1.14 | jnt 1.06 | pancc 1.04 | real 1.03

 

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Projected Maps:

                EXTREMUM removes Overpass

                Sharks removes Inferno

                EXTREMUM picks Vertigo

                Sharks picks Mirage

                EXTREMUM removes Ancient

                Sharks removes Nuke

                Dust2 is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. This one is especially tricky because both teams typically ban Overpass and pick Vertigo. I imagine that EXTREMUM will stick to that as a heavy favorite here though they could float Vertigo through, meanwhile Sharks will be fine with Vertigo as either their opponent’s map pick or as a possible decider map since that has been their best map. Sharks have a few options here, but Mirage seems the most likely. Dust2 would make sense as the decider in this scenario. 

 

EXTREMUM - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): 6-6 W/L record, 54.2% pistol round win percent, 71.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.6% round win percent after receiving first death

EXTREMUM - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (12 maps): jkaem +13 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | BnTeT +7 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating

EXTREMUM - Key stats on Mirage past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 60.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.1% round win percent after receiving first death

EXTREMUM - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (6 maps): jkaem +14 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | BnTeT +1 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

 

Sharks - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 5-0 W/L record, 80.0% pistol round win percent, 85.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.7% round win percent after receiving first death

Sharks - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): zevy +37 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | Lucaozy +23 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | pancc +15 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating

Sharks - Key stats on Mirage past three months (2 maps): 0-2 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 54.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 15.4% round win percent after receiving first death

Sharks - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (2 maps): Lucaozy +2 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating 

 

Analysis:

EXTREMUM are the biggest favorite on the slate, but I actually think that Sharks can keep this one somewhat competitive, especially given the projected map pool. Vertigo is a comfort pick for EXTREMUM, but Sharks have won their last five on that map so that one could be a close one. Still, I do not see EXTREMUM losing this, though a 2-1 win does seem entirely possible to me. If that were to be the case, then I think EXTREMUM would need to rely on their star players, jkaem & BnTeT, and at least one of them would surely be in for a monster day. Gratisfaction has been on fire with AWP for this tournament, but I do expect his numbers to come back down a bit. Zevy would be my favorite one-off from Sharks since he has been the highest rated player for them, and as an AWPer he is more likely to have a solid stat line in a loss than his teammates. I like EXTREMUM here, but I do not think this one will necessarily be a breeze like their series Monday against Budapest Five. I would be cautious of Gratisfaction, Liazz and AZR since one of them may have a good day but I do not expect all of them to here since Sharks should demand some respect. Jkaem and BnTet would be the main focus for me here with one of them in my lineup as much as possible if the salary is available, and both of them in a lineup sounds nice but the salary would be really tight. 

 

 

Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #41) vs. Anonymo (World rank: #39) 

Moneyline Odds: CPH Flames (-170) | Anonymo (+140)

Map Handicap: CPH Flames -1.5 (+170) | Anonymo +1.5 (-205)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

 

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Spring Sweet Spring 3 group stage - Swiss round 3 (teams with a 2-0 record).
  • CPH Flames - Rating past event: nicoodoz 1.33 | roeJ 1.25 | jabbi 1.22 | HooXi 0.95 | Zyphon 0.91
  • CPH Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.25 | nicoodoz 1.11 | Zyphon 1.06 | jabbi 1.04 | HooXi 0.94
  • Anonymo - Rating at event: KEi 1.32 | Snax 1.22 | Kylar 1.00 | mynio 0.98 | innocent 0.91
  • Anonymo - Rating past three months: KEi 1.11 | Snax 1.06 | Kylar 1.02 | innocent 1.01 | mynio 0.95

 

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced each other on June 15th, 2021, at the Spring Sweet Spring 3 Regionals. Copenhagen Flames swept the series 2-0 and dominated on Ancient (16-6 Ancient / 16-12 Mirage). Nicoodoz led the way with 46 kills, 90.5 ADR and a 1.46 Rating. Everyone on CPH Flames had a positive k/d ratio, besides HooXi, while nobody on Anonymo had a positive k/d ratio for the series.

Projected Maps:

                CPH Flames removes Dust2

                Anonymo removes Overpass

                CPH Flames picks Ancient

                Anonymo picks Mirage

                CPH Flames removes Nuke

                Anonymo removes Inferno

                Vertigo is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. The projected maps above are the same as the last time these teams faced, though Anonymo may consider banning Ancient instead of Overpass. Anonymo got dominated on Ancient last time and they have lost on it four times in a row, so they might be better off just banning it to start.

 

CPH Flames - Key stats on Ancient past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 68.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.8% round win percent after receiving first death

CPH Flames - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (5 maps): roeJ +14 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | Zyphon +9 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | nicoodoz +7 K/D Diff, 0.99 Rating

CPH Flames - Key stats on Mirage past three months (13 maps): 3-10 W/L record, 34.6% pistol round win percent, 63.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 20.1% round win percent after receiving first death

CPH Flames - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (13 maps): nicoodoz +25 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | jabbi +17 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating 

 

Anonymo - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 0-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 70.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.6% round win percent after receiving first death

Anonymo - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): Kylar +18 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Snax +4 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating

Anonymo - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 66.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Anonymo - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): KEi +18 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Snax +6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

 

Analysis:

Copenhagen Flames have been excellent at Spring Sweet Spring 3 so far, and their pricing is really fair on Draftkings, so I like this spot a lot for DFS. It would not surprise me to see Anonymo take a map, specifically Mirage, but CPH Flames did beat them on that map last time so there are no guarantees for Anonymo here. I think that KEi is reasonably priced and would be my focus if I were playing Anonymo, but Copenhagen Flames are the focus for me. I think that roeJ is basically a free square on this slate since he should smash, and his $9,000 price tag is simply too low. Mirage has not been his best map, but he still looks like a really strong play given his stats on Ancient/Overpass, and it would not surprise to see him perform well on Mirage against Anonymo on Wednesday. Nicoodoz should be pretty popular since he is so cheap. I would not go all in on nicoodoz since he can have bad days with the AWP, but he looks like a great play and I like him a lot. Zyphon and jabbi look like good options while HooXi is generally a fade for me. Copenhagen Flames should win the series and I think they make for a good stack on this slate with roeJ as the focal point. 

 

Endpoint (World rank: #26) vs. Fiend (World rank: #23) 

Moneyline Odds: Endpoint (+235) | Fiend (-300)

Map Handicap: Endpoint +1.5 (-135) | Fiend -1.5 (+110)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)

 

  • This is a best-of-three series for the Spring Sweet Spring 3 group stage - Swiss round 3 (teams with a 2-0 record).
  • Endpoint - Rating past event: mezii 1.33 | CRUC1AL 1.24 | Thomas 1.04 | MiGHTYMAX 1.02 | Surreal 0.91 
  • Endpoint - Rating past three months: mezii 1.21 | CRUC1AL 1.09 | Thomas 1.08 | Surreal 1.01 | MiGHTYMAX 0.96
  • Fiend - Rating at event: dream3r 1.34 | h4rn 1.22 | REDSTAR 1.11 | v1c7oR 1.04 | bubble 1.00
  • Fiend - Rating past three months: dream3r 1.22 | h4rn 1.20 | REDSTAR 1.19 | v1c7oR 1.08 | bubble 0.99

 

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have faced each other on May 31, 2021, at Spring Sweet Spring 2. Fiend swept the series 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-5 Overpass). All five members of Fiend had a positive k/d ratio with bubble being the highest rated player across two maps with a 1.33 Rating, and v1c7oR and dream3r not far behind. Endpoint did on Overpass in in the meeting prior to that between these teams, but OTMOR, the coach of Fiend, was playing for REDSTAR for that map.

Projected Maps:

                Endpoint removes Nuke

                Fiend removes Vertigo

                Endpoint picks Inferno

                Fiend picks Mirage

                Endpoint removes Ancient

                Fiend removes Overpass

                Dust2 is left over.

  • The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Neither team has lost on that map yet, so it probably will not be a priority in the first set of bans. Fiend typically ban Vertigo and Endpoint typically ban Nuke and I expect the same here. Endpoint should pick Inferno, but Overpass is an option as well, while Mirage should more than likely be the pick of Fiend. Dust2 should be the decider map like last time, though Ancient could be an option too. 

 

Endpoint - Key stats on Inferno past three months (21 maps): 11-10 W/L record, 47.6% pistol round win percent, 73.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.6% round win percent after receiving first death

Endpoint - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (21 maps): mezii +26 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | CRUC1AL +35 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating 

Endpoint - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 9-5 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 69.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.1% round win percent after receiving first death

Endpoint - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): mezii +63 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | CRUC1AL +43 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Surreal -11 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | MiGHTYMAX +6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

 

Fiend - Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 79.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.9% round win percent after receiving first death

Fiend - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): h4rn +28 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | dream3r +48 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | REDSTAR +26 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating

Fiend - Key stats on Mirage past three months (22 maps): 18-4 W/L record, 68.2% pistol round win percent, 83.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Fiend - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (22 maps): h4rn +151 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | REDSTAR +123 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | dream3r +125 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating

 

 

Analysis:

We have seen these teams play before and Fiend clearly looked like the better team. I expect that to stay the same on Wednesday. I think that Fiend is probably the best team in this tournament right now (outside of the teams invited to the playoffs) and I think Endpoint would be lucky to even take a map here. Fiend have the stronger map pool and there is not much that Endpoint can do to try and swing things into their favor. Mezii and CRUC1AL are really cheap for their potential upside so I understand wanting to take shots there, but Fiend is the focus for me and looks to be the safest stack on the slate, though the pricing is a bit expensive. Dream3r, h4rn and REDSTAR all look like smash plays and REDSTAR is my favorite just based on the pricing. V1c7oR and bubble look like fine plays as well. I think stacking three from Fiend makes a lot of sense, or at least getting one or two of their best players into your lineup would be ideal. 

 

 

**Favorite Stacks: Fiend, Copenhagen Flames

**Favorite CPT plays: REDSTAR, roeJ, dream3r, jkaem, BnTeT, SunPayus, h4rn

**Favorite value plays: v1c7oR, nicoodoz, Zyphon, jabbi, DeathZz