*Note: Gamers Without Borders 2021 is a charity tournament meaning the entire prize pool will be donated. It is tough to say what this means for how these series will play out since this tournament is clearly a low priority for these teams. I would just be cautious when approaching this slate.

NiP (World rank: #6) vs. MIBR (World rank: #48) 

Moneyline Odds: NiP (-600) | MIBR (+435) 

Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (-165) | MIBR +1.5 (+135)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+190) | Under 2.5 (-235)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of Gamers Without Borders.
  • NiP - Rating past three months: REZ 1.11 | device 1.10 | LNZ 1.03 | hampus 1.00 | Plopski 0.95
  • MIBR - Rating past three months: chelo 1.28 | boltz 1.09 | exit 1.07 | yel 1.04 | shz 1.03 

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Projected Maps

  • NiP removes Vertigo
  • MIBR removes Nuke
  • NiP picks Dust2
  • MIBR picks Mirage
  • NiP removes Inferno
  • MIBR removes Overpass
  • Ancient is left over.

The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Also, we do not know which direction these teams will go with map selection since this is a charity tournament. Vertigo and Nuke are the typical bans for these teams and should get removed first. NiP picked Dust2 into G2 last weekend after beating BIG on that map the day prior, and it would not surprise me to see them pick it here since they have clearly been working on it. MIBR like to play Mirage and it makes the most sense as their map pick here. I think Ancient would be the most likely decider in this scenario, especially considering that this is a charity tournament.

*Stats include since device joined the lineup. 

  • NiP - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 75.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.9% round win percent after receiving first death
  • NiP - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): LNZ (3 maps) +11 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | device +15 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | 
  • NiP - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 63.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.6% round win percent after receiving first death
  • NiP - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): hampus +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | LNZ (4 maps) +4 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
  • MIBR - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.8% round win percent after receiving first death
  • MIBR - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (2 maps): chelo +22 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | boltz +12 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | yel +6 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
  • MIBR - Key stats on Mirage past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 83.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.2% round win percent after receiving first death
  • MIBR - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (4 maps): chelo +25 K/D Diff, 1.42 Rating | yel +36 K/D Diff, 1.36 Rating | exit +30 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | shz +10 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating

Analysis

There is no reason why NiP should lose this series, even if we consider the fact that this is a charity tournament that they might not take as seriously as other events. Ninjas in Pyjamas made a run at the BLAST Premier Spring Final and finished in 4th place which was above expectations since they have only recently added LNZ. That tournament was a confidence builder for LNZ, and we saw several solid performances from him. Dust2 and Mirage are two of his best maps which would make LNZ a priority target for DFS. MIBR just got swept by Iberian Family on Monday, though it would not surprise me to see them find play up to their competition and find better form in this spot. Still, they have a really tough match-up here and Chelo is the only one I would really consider playing from this team. Stacking three players from NiP makes the mose sense to me, and Hampus is actually my favorite play on the team since he is only $7,000 and he plays aggressive and takes a lot of opening duels which means he has a high ceiling. Device and REZ are smash plays, but their price tag makes them difficult to fit into lineups, and Plopski is a fine play for some salary relief. Perhaps MIBR can win some rounds, but I expect NiP to come out on top here.
 

ENCE (World rank: #22) vs. mousesports (World rank: #8) 

Moneyline Odds: ENCE (+230) | mousesports (-295) 

Map Handicap: ENCE +1.5 (-140) | mousesports -1.5 (+115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)

This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of Gamers Without Borders.

ENCE - Rating past three months: hades 1.17 | Spinx 1.12 | dycha 1.11 | doto 1.06 | Snappi 1.00

mousesports - Rating past three months: frozen 1.21 | ropz 1.20 | acoR 1.09 | Bymas 1.09 | dexter 1.02

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Projected Maps

  • ENCE removes Inferno
  • mousesports removes Mirage
  • ENCE picks Vertigo
  • mousesports picks Nuke
  • ENCE removes Ancient
  • mousesports removes Dust2
  • Overpass is left over.

The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Also, we do not know which direction these teams will go with map selection since this is a charity tournament. ENCE might look to ban Inferno since it has been a weak map for them while mousesports may consider banning Mirage. ENCE have been picking Vertigo lately and have won six in a row on that map so I think they will pick it if it is available. Mousesports have a few options and could possibly float Nuke for the decider, but I think they will feel confident enough to pick it here despite it being a good map for ENCE. Overpass or Dust2 make the most sense as a decider map here. 

  • ENCE - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): 6-0 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 81.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 52.5% round win percent after receiving first death
  • ENCE - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): hades +60 K/D Diff, 1.45 Rating | doto +41 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | dycha +36 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | Snappi +26 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | Spinx +15 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
  • ENCE - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 5-1 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 78.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.5% round win percent after receiving first death
  • ENCE - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): hades +34 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | dycha +18 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | doto +25 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Spinx +22 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
  • mousesports - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 55.6% pistol round win percent, 65.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 40.5% round win percent after receiving first death
  • mousesports - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): frozen +5 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Bymas +31 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | ropz +31 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
  • mousesports - Key stats on Nuke past three months (13 maps): 10-3 W/L record, 57.7% pistol round win percent, 80.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.3% round win percent after receiving first death
  • mousesports - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (13 maps): frozen +64 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | ropz +42 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | dexter +2 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | acoR +7 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | Bymas +2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

Analysis

This series is a bit less clear than the first because ENCE could definitely take a map here, though I still think NiP will win and they make the most sense as a DFS stack. If this tournament was not for charity, then I would feel more confident in mousesports, but I still think that ENCE would have a decent chance here even without that as a factor. Frozen has been the top performer on mousesports in recent months, but he is now priced well above his teammates which means he might not be the best DFS play at the moment, though he should still do well. Ropz looks like a smash play at only $8,400 on Draftkings, and he is my favorite play on the team given his price. AcoR typically shows up in these types of match-ups, so I like him a lot in this spot. Bymas and Dexter are volatile plays but one or both could be the top performers for their team on any given day, so I do like getting to them. I am not completely sold on this being a dominant win for mousesports even if they do sweep, so I do not mind having some light ENCE exposure, maybe even two from mousesports and one from ENCE in a lineup could work out nicely. Hades has usually been the best play on ENCE since joining the team, but dycha and Spinx are both on my radar as well as one-offs especially given the potential maps. 

**Favorite Stacks: NiP, mousesports

**Favorite CPT plays: ropz, hampus, LNZ, acoR, device, REZ, frozen

**Favorite value plays: Plopski, Bymas, Dexter, dycha, Chelo, hades, Spinx