Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #21)
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-460) | Evil Geniuses (+345)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-130) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (+105)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+160) | Under 2.5 (-200)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket quarter-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021.
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.27 | Hobbit 1.23 | Ax1Le 1.23 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.98
- Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.07 | Brehze 1.03 | MICHU 0.99 | CeRq 0.99 | stanislaw 0.85
H2H Data:
- These rosters just faced each other last Friday at IEM Summer 2021 and Gambit swept EG 2-0 (16-10 Dust2 / 16-11 Overpass). Ax1Le & Sh1ro led the way with 90 kills combined across two maps and a 1.50 and 1.43 Rating, respectively. CeRq was the only member of Evil Geniuses to have a positive K/D ratio.
Projected Maps:
Gambit removes Nuke
Evil Geniuses removes Vertigo
Gambit picks Dust2
Evil Geniuses picks Overpass
Gambit removes Inferno
Evil Geniuses removes Ancient
Mirage is left over.
- The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. I was a bit surprised with the way that the map veto played out last time these teams played, but I actually expect it to go the same way again this time. Gambit should remove Nuke, and EG will have to decide if they want to ban Gambit’s best map, Vertigo, or one of their own worst maps, Dust2. They went for the Vertigo ban last time and Gambit picked Dust2, and if it plays out that way again, then I do think it is the most ideal situation for Evil Geniuses to put themselves in. EG lost Overpass last time, but it was a pretty competitive map and I think they will go for it again. Mirage makes the most sense as the decider in this scenario.
Gambit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (18 maps): 10-8 W/L record, 55.6% pistol round win percent, 77.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (18 maps): sh1ro +107 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | Hobbit +66 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Ax1Le +48 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (16 maps): 10-6 W/L record, 53.1% pistol round win percent, 77.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.2% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (16 maps): Ax1Le +88 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | Hobbit +49 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | sh1ro +48 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 61.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.7% round win percent after receiving first death
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (3 maps): MICHU +6 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | oBo -1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | CeRq +6 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 1-6 W/L record, 21.4% pistol round win percent, 64.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): MICHU +5 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Brehze +0 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Analysis:
If we get the same maps as the last time these teams faced each other, then I think EG actually has some chance to win a map, but I highly doubt they get past Gambit in a best-of-three. Gambit just dominated the grand final of IEM Summer 2021 with a 3-0 sweep against OG and they certainly still look like the best team in the world. Ax1Le and Hobbit played the tournament from home, and it did not seem to really matter, especially not for Ax1Le who was the MVP of the tournament with a 1.33 Rating across 15 maps played. Hobbit has had ping issues in the past, but that does not seem to be a major concern based on his performances. Gambit still has a much stronger map pool than Evil Geniuses and my focus for DFS would mainly be with Gambit. Sh1ro is worth paying up for despite his expensive price tag on DFS, and Ax1Le continues to be a smash play at such a low price for a player of his caliber. Hobbit is my least favorite of the spend-up options on Gambit, but Dust2 & Overpass have been great maps for him in the past, so he is worth a look. Nafany and interz should both be fine plays with nafany having much more potential upside. CeRq, oBo, MICHU and Brehze are all very reasonably priced with possible upside, especially if we see Dust2 & Overpass as the maps again, but I would only mix in one of those guys into a lineup rather than stacking them. I just do not see Evil Geniuses winning this series even if they do manage to take a map. DraftKings also has tarik in the player pool for absolutely no reason so stay away of course.
Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #11) vs. Complexity (World rank: #14)
Moneyline Odds: NiP (-125) | Complexity (Even)
Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (+235) | Complexity +1.5 (-300)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket quarter-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021.
- NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.12 | REZ 1.09 | hampus 1.03 | Plopski 0.99 | LNZ 0.90*
- Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.15 | k0nfig 1.13 | jks 1.06 | poizon 0.99 | RUSH 0.91
*LNZ has only played nine maps with the team since replacing ztr in the lineup.
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. When the teams faced each other back in April 2021 at ESL Pro League Season 13, NiP still had nawwk & ztr in the lineup instead of device & LNZ. NiP won that series 2-1 (17-19 Mirage / 16-14 Overpass / 16-9 Inferno).
Projected Maps:
NiP removes Vertigo
Complexity removes Ancient
NiP picks Overpass
Complexity picks Mirage
NiP removes Nuke
Complexity removes Inferno
Dust2 is left over.
- The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. Complexity used to permaban Train and have prioritized banning Ancient so far, so I do think they will ban Ancient to start. Ninjas in Pyjamas typically ban Vertigo and that should be the case again here. Mirage is Complexity’s most played map by far and it would be no surprise to see them pick it if available. NiP’s map pick is a bit less clear with recent changes to their lineup, but Overpass makes the most sense given their past results. Inferno was the decider map last time these teams played, but I think Dust2 makes more sense here.
NiP - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.4% round win percent after receiving first death
NiP - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): device +22 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | REZ +9 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 65.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.3% round win percent after receiving first death
NiP - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): hampus +12 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | LNZ (3 maps) +4 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
*Note, these stats for NiP only include results with device in the lineup.
Complexity - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Complexity - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): blameF +12 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | k0nfig +7 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (17 maps): 10-7 W/L record, 64.7% pistol round win percent, 73.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.6% round win percent after receiving first death
Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (17 maps): blameF +77 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | k0nfig +52 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | poizon +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | jks +10 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Analysis:
Complexity had recently lost six of their last seven series and had found themselves in the lower bracket final of the 9th-12th place deciders for Flashpoint 3, but they have seemed to have found good form again, winning nine of their last 13 maps played. They had series wins against Anonymo, Sprout (twice), FunPlus Phoenix, and even took one map from Gambit with a 16-8 victory on Overpass. Ninjas in Pyjamas have had mixed results lately, but they have some really solid wins, like beating Heroic twice in the past few weeks. This sets up to be a very close series, but I lean the way of Complexity on Tuesday. They should be the favorites on Mirage if it is played, although LNZ has looked most comfortable on that map. NiP may still be favorites on Overpass if it is played, but it is hard to count out Complexity considering they just beat Gambit 16-8 on that map. I think blameF is the best DFS play on the entire slate at only $8,000 and I think he has a legitimate chance to be the top scorer on Tuesday. He is consistently one of the best Mirage players in the world, and we have seen him dominate long control on CT Overpass, which is where he would start if NiP were to pick it. K0nfig and poizon would be my next two priorities, with jks being a close fourth and RUSH being a distant fifth. If you wanted to mix in anybody from NiP, device would clearly be the number one option, although REZ and hampus are reasonably enough priced that they might be worth taking shots on. Still, Complexity will be the focus for me for this DFS slate. There has been so much chaos in terms of roster changes with NiP lately that I do not think we will see them at their best in the near future.
**Favorite Stacks: Gambit, Complexity
**Favorite CPT plays: blameF, Ax1Le, sh1ro, poizon, k0nfig, device
**Favorite value plays: nafany, jks