G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Complexity (World rank: #12)
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-195) | Complexity (+160)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+160) | Complexity +1.5 (-195)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group A upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Cologne 2021.
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.18 | huNter- 1.13 | AmaNEk 1.01 | nexa 0.99 | JaCkz 0.92
- Complexity - Rating past three months: k0nfig 1.17 | blameF 1.16 | jks 1.05 | poizon 1.01 | RUSH
Analysis:
Complexity finished the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament as the fourth highest rated team with a 1.11 Rating across five maps played. They had shaky moments against ViCi and LDLC, but they ultimately won those series, and it is possible that they were not taking those match-ups very seriously since they were expected to win as heavy favorites. K0nfig also finished as the eighth highest rated player at the event with a 1.32 Rating across five maps, so he is in excellent form right now. Still, I think they are outmatched against G2, and we saw that when these teams played back in June at the BLAST Premier Spring Final. G2 won that series 2-1 (11-16 Vertigo / 16-9 Nuke / 16-11 Mirage), and AmaNEk led the way with 70 kills across three maps. There have been questions about AmaNEk’s ability with the AWP ever since G2 benched KennyS, but he has continued to show me that he is capable of AWPing at the tier one level, and that series against Complexity was one of his best yet. Complexity may decide to pick Vertigo again to hopefully leave Mirage as the decider. I think G2 would be best off picking Inferno here, but Dust2 would be a good option as well. I have G2 winning this series, but the map pool once again could set up for a close series that is potentially winnable for the Complexity side. My favorite plays here would be NiKo and huNter-, with AmaNEk looking like a solid value play as well. However, k0nfig, blameF and poizon are all cheap enough that they could make for interesting plays. Stacking NiKo and huNter- together would be a solid play, but there are a lot of great spend-up options on this slate so playing both together would be difficult to do.
Virtus.pro (World rank: #6) vs. BIG (World rank: #10)
Moneyline Odds: VP (Even) | BIG (-125)
Map Handicap: VP +1.5 (-290) | BIG -1.5 (+230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group A upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Cologne 2021.
- VP - Rating past three months: Jame 1.16 | YEKINDAR 1.04 | Qikert 1.02 | buster 0.98 | SANJI 0.91
- BIG - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.13 | syrsoN 1.12 | tabseN 1.08 | k1to 0.97 | tiziaN 0.94
Analysis:
Virtus.pro should be able to pick Inferno with BIG likely banning Ancient, but the rest of the map pool does not look great for them. BIG should pick Dust2, and we would then probably see Mirage as the decider, so BIG winning 2-1 makes a lot of sense here. Virtus.pro recently struggled at StarLadder CIS RMR 2021 and they do not look like they are playing their best Counter-Strike at the moment. Still, we have to give them some respect based on what they have shown in the past, and Jame at $8,600 seems like a pretty safe play even if BIG were to win the series. I will mainly focus on playing BIG in this spot though, and one of my favorite plays is k1to at only $6,200. He finished as the fifth highest rated player at the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament, and he was in good company finishing behind ZywOo, ropz, device, and his teammate tabseN. Thus, I like tabseN even more at $7,000 as both of them will look to continue their good form. XANTARES and syrsoN are both typically crucial to BIG’s success, so either one would make sense to stack with k1to or tabseN. These rosters faced in December 2020 at Flashpoint 2 with the same rosters on both sides and VP won 2-1 (16-9 Mirage / 6-16 Vertigo / 16-11 Overpass), though these results are less relevant now over a half a year later. TiziaN actually had the most kills on the server with 62 across three maps despite his team losing, but I am not expecting much from him in this spot. The odds have this series as nearly a coinflip so there is not exactly a safe stack for DFS, but I like the value on BIG a lot so rostering the German team is my play here.
Vitality (World rank: #9) vs. FURIA (World rank: #11)
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-200) | FURIA (+160)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+160) | FURIA +1.5 (-195)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group B upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Cologne 2021.
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.32 | misutaaa 1.11 | shox 1.02 | apEX 1.01 | Kyojin 0.96
- FURIA - Rating past three months: KSCERATO 1.15 | yuurih 1.12 | arT 1.03 | VINI 0.98 | honda 0.91
Analysis:
ZywOo is my favorite spend-up option on the slate for a few reasons. These teams faced each other in May at DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 and FURIA won 2-0 (16-10 Vertigo / 19-17 Nuke), but ZywOo was still the top fantasy performer with the most kills, 58, and he tied for the least amount of deaths, 34, across two maps, which goes to show the incredible upside that ZywOo possesses. FURIA also do not have a dedicated primary AWPer right now, which may mean ZywOo is even more likely to take over with his AWP. Vitality picked Mirage against Spirit in their last series, which was pretty unexpected, so who knows which map they will pick here, but Mirage is certainly a possibility again. ZywOo has absolutely dominated Mirage with a 1.39 Rating in the past three months across the small sample size of three maps played for Vitality during that time. FURIA will likely pick Inferno, which has not been ZywOo’s best map, but he had 28 kills and a 1.95 Rating against Virtus.pro in his last match on Inferno, and VP is a solid team on the map, so I would not be too worried. Plus, his Draftkings ownership could be relatively low since the narrative of him not being great on Inferno is out there, but at the end of the day he is the best player in the world, and he is fantastic on that map still. My second favorite play on Vitality would be apEX, with shox and misutaaa looking decent for their price. Kyojin is cheap but he is still inexperienced on LAN, so I do not see a whole lot of upside there. I think the best play on FURIA would be arT since he is the closest thing that they have to a primary AWPer and he is relatively cheap on Draftkings, but FURIA is not the priority for me. I know they did beat Vitality last time, but I do expect Vitality to get their revenge, though this match-up could be competitive again.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) vs. Renegades (World rank: #50)
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-780) | Renegades (+540)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-190) | Renegades (+155)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+205) | Under 2.5 (-255)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group B upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Cologne 2021.
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.32 | electronic 1.13 | B1T 1.07 | Perfecto 1.02 | Boombl4 0.95
- Renegades - Rating past three months: INS 1.32 | aliStair 1.18 | Hatz 1.18 | Sico 1.16 | malta 1.14
Analysis:
The odds are hard to ignore here with NAVI being a massive favorite. OG got swept as a heavy favorite against Renegades on Wednesday, so Renegades are certainly a capable underdog, but I do not see them even winning a map against NAVI. We can expect to see Renegades pick Inferno, and all of the heavy hitters for NAVI have performed well on that map in the past month (6 maps): s1mple +41 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | electronic +32 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | B1T +10 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating. The most likely map pick for NAVI would be Dust2, and again it is another strong map for s1mple, electronic, and b1t, with Perfecto looking good on that map as well in the past month (11 maps): s1mple +71 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | electronic +13 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Perfecto +13 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | B1T +9 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating. All signs point to NAVI winning this one, and I am completely fading Renegades because I think they should really struggle in this spot. S1mple looks like a smash play as always, and it seems like a reasonable narrative that he will want to show up and impress for the first LAN tournament in a year and a half, so perhaps we see a monster day from him. If I was doing a cash lineup, then s1mple would probably be the first player in my lineup because his floor is significantly high here. Electronic is a somewhat pricey but I think he should still be a pretty safe play. My second favorite play after s1mple would be B1T since he is only $7,800 and has been putting up consistent performances in the past month. Perfecto and Boombl4 could both be decent value plays since NAVI could dominate this match-up.
Favorite Stacks: NAVI, Vitality, G2, BIG
Favorite Captain Plays: ZywOo, s1mple, NiKo, huNter-, XANTARES, electronic
Favorite Value Plays: tabseN, B1T, syrsoN, k1to, apEX, AmaNEk, shox