Sprout (World rank: #41) vs. TeamOne (World rank: #51) 

Moneyline Odds: Sprout (-265) | TeamOne (+210)

Map Handicap: Sprout -1.5 (+125) | TeamOne +1.5 (-150)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket of the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament. The losing team will be eliminated while the winning team will have to win another best-of-three in the next round to earn their spot in IEM Cologne 2021.
  • Sprout - Rating at event: kressy 0.92 | slaxz- 0.81 | denis 0.69 | Spiidi 0.66 | faveN 0.66
  • Sprout - Rating past three months: faveN 1.17 | slaxz- 1.05 | kressy 1.02 | denis 0.95 | Spiidi 0.95
  • TeamOne - Rating at event: pesadelo 0.80 | prt 0.71 | malbsMd 0.67 | xns 0.67 | maluk3 0.26
  • TeamOne - Rating past three months: malbsMd 1.09 | pesadelo 1.02 | Maluk3 1.02 | prt 1.00 | xns 0.93

Analysis:

I liked faveN as a value play on Tuesday’s slate at a cheap $7,000 salary, but his team got outclassed by BIG and he struggled to find impact. This slate looks much more favorable for him with Sprout as a heavy favorite, but unfortunately, he is now the most expensive player on the slate at $10,000. Still, I think faveN should dominate here regardless of the result for his team, so he is one of my favorite options on the slate despite his increase in salary. It is possible that TeamOne keep things competitive, but Sprout is the more talented team and I do see this as a 2-0 sweep for the German team, though neither team looked great in their opening match. Sprout should basically be considered a lock to win Dust2 if that is their map pick. TeamOne has a strong map pool on paper, but they have really struggled against Top 50 teams with the exception of Extra Salt. Everyone on TeamOne is cheap on Draftkings, but Sprout has to be the priority for DFS. MalbsMd would be my favorite one-off as a possible value option on TeamOne, but that would be about it for me. I would recommend getting to faveN as much as possible especially since we can expect to see Dust2, which has been one of his best maps with a 1.23 Rating in the past three months. Kressy would be my next favorite option with slaxz- not far behind. Denis and Spiidi are fine plays as well, but I think there are better value spots on this slate. 

 

Evil Geniuses (World rank: #21) vs. ViCi (World rank: #148) 

Moneyline Odds: EG (-450) | ViCi (+335)

Map Handicap: Evil Geniuses -1.5 (-120) | ViCi +1.5 (-105)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+150) | Under 2.5 (-185)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket of the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament. The losing team will be eliminated while the winning team will have to win another best-of-three in the next round to earn their spot in IEM Cologne 2021.
  • EG - Rating at event: MICHU 1.46 | Brehze 1.09 | CeRq 0.88 | oBo 0.87 | stanislaw 0.59
  • EG - Rating past three months: oBo 1.06 | MICHU 1.00 | Brehze 0.93 | CeRq 0.92 | stanislaw 0.82
  • ViCi - Rating at event: JamYoung 1.13 | Kaze 1.03 | zhokiNg 0.87 | advent 0.86 | aumaN 0.58
  • ViCi - Rating past three months: JamYoung 1.25 | Kaze 1.20 | zhokiNg 1.13 | aumaN 1.07 | advent 0.91

Analysis:

Vici had an impressive showing against Complexity on Tuesday, and there are clearly some talented aimers on this team. Evil Geniuses will have the superior strategies, but we should still expect to see players like JamYoung and kaze get a decent number of kills. I figured that JamYoung and kaze would both be decent value plays on this slate because of their ability to frag, but Draftkings simply made them too expensive for players on a team that is a (+335) underdog. Evil Geniuses lost against FaZe in the opening round, but MICHU was still the best player on the server, so he is someone to consider again on Wednesday. I would rather save the salary and take Brehze at $7,600 though, especially since he showed signs of finding good form again with a 1.09 Rating against FaZe. Evil Geniuses have selected Overpass as their map pick a few times recently and I think they could go for it here, and Brehze leads the team with a 1.20 Rating in the past month on that map. We saw a quiet map from oBo against FaZe, but he has been the highest rated player on this team, and if EG just dominate here then he will likely be the one taking aggressive fights and getting a bunch of the eco kills, so I think he is an excellent play. I like CeRq as well since he is only $7,000, and I would mostly stay away from rostering stanislaw. We have to give some credit to ViCi after how they looked at Complexity, and EG is on a nine-map losing streak, but I still think Evil Geniuses should be comfortable favorites in this spot especially now that we are into the best-of-threes. My favorite play here would be to stack two players from EG with oBo and Brehze as my top two. 

 

Complexity (World rank: #12) vs. LDLC (World rank: #42) 

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-305) | LDLC (+240)

Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (+105) | LDLC +1.5 (-130)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-165)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket quarter-final of the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament. The losing team will be eliminated while the winning team will qualify for IEM Cologne 2021.
  • Complexity - Rating at event: k0nfig 1.22 | poizon 1.08 | blameF 1.04 | jks 0.89 | RUSH 0.71
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: k0nfig 1.16 | blameF 1.16 | jks 1.04 | poizon 1.00 | RUSH 0.87
  • LDLC - Rating at event: Keoz 1.26 | hAdji 1.25 | Maka 1.08 | SIXER 0.98 | Lambert 0.87
  • LDLC - Rating past three months: Maka 1.18 | hAdji 1.13 | SIXER 1.09 | Keoz 1.07 | Lambert 0.87

Analysis:

We saw both of these teams play two series on Tuesday, and Complexity came out flat. They got off to a slow start on CT Mirage against ViCi, only managing to win six rounds at the half, which is especially troubling considering Mirage is their favorite map. They did manage to beat ViCi 16-10, but then they got swept 0-2 by FaZe in the next round, so they missed their first chance to earn a spot at IEM Cologne 2021. Complexity only won two rounds on CT Nuke at the half against FaZe and dropped that map 16-6, so it was another sluggish start for them. Complexity removed Inferno against FaZe, so they might do that again in this spot since it has been LDLC’s best map. LDLC may consider picking Nuke in that scenario especially since Complexity looked so weak on that map against FaZe. There is a chance that LDLC could ban Complexity’s favorite map, Mirage, which would probably leave Complexity deciding between Overpass or Ancient as their map pick. I think that LDLC have a legitimate chance to take a map here, and I think Complexity 2-1 is the most likely scenario. K0nfig is scary on LAN because his aim is the best in the world on a good day for him, and I think he should be another smash play on this slate that is worth paying up for. I also think blameF has a lot of upside with the possibility of Nuke being in the map pool, but he is pretty expensive, and I would rather use the salary to pay up for k0nfig if given the option. Poizon and jks both look like really solid value plays, and I think Maka could make for an interesting one-off due to his high ceiling. 

 

OG (World rank: #13) vs. Renegades (World rank: #50) 

Moneyline Odds: OG (-505) | Renegades (+375)

Map Handicap: OG -1.5 (-140) | Renegades +1.5 (+115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-205)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket quarter-final of the IEM Cologne 2021 Play-In tournament. The losing team will be eliminated while the winning team will qualify for IEM Cologne 2021.
  • OG - Rating at event: valde 1.38 | mantuu 1.09 | niko 1.02 | flameZ 0.96 | Aleksib 0.84
  • OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.21 | valde 1.14 | flameZ 1.11 | Aleksib 1.05 | niko 1.00
  • Renegades - Rating at event: aliStair 1.09 | malta 0.96 | INS 0.95 | Hatz 0.89 | Sico 0.78
  • Renegades - Rating past three months: INS 1.31 | Hatz 1.19 | aliStair 1.17 | malta 1.15 | Sico 1.15

Analysis:

OG is the biggest favorite on the slate, and this should be an easy series for them. Renegades managed to beat MIBR in a close battle on Tuesday, but we still have not seen them find success against a team as highly ranked as OG. These teams did face each other earlier in the year at ESL Pro League Season 13, and OG swept the series 2-0 (16-12 Inferno / 16-6 Nuke), though ISSAA was still in the OG lineup instead of flameZ. Inferno has been a good map for OG in the past, but that did not stop Renegades from picking it last time, and I think they could do that again here. OG have switched their map pick up at time, and they went with Mirage against BIG, so they might go for that map again though they did lose on it last time. Renegades have impressive stats because they play in the weaker Oceania region, though INS and aliStair are two players who I think could maybe have a big day here. Still, OG will be the priority for me, and I think the value plays are the way to go here. Niko at only $5,800 is one of my favorite value plays on the slate, especially since he has looked good on LAN so far with a 1.02 Rating for this event. Aleksib and flameZ are both very appealing at their salaries as well. I think mantuu and valde should have solid days, but there are other expensive options on the slate that I would rather pay up for. I would prioritize the value on OG here in a series that should be pretty one-sided. 

 

Favorite Stacks: OG, Evil Geniuses, Complexity

Favorite Captain Plays: faveN, oBo, k0nfig, mantuu, blameF

Favorite Value Plays: Brehze, niko, poizon, flameZ, Aleksib, jks, CeRq

Favorite Roster Construction: 2-2-1-1