Spirit (World rank: #15) vs. K23 (World rank: #38) 

Moneyline Odds: Spirit (-345) | K23 (+270) 

Map Handicap: Spirit -1.5 (-105) | K23 +1.5 (-120)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-170)

 

  • This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket finals of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021. The losing team will be eliminated while the winner will go on to compete for a spot in the Grand Final. 
  • Spirit - Rating at event: mir 1.25 | degster 1.11 | sdy 1.06 | magixx 1.04 | chopper 0.95
  • Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.18 | degster 1.11 | sdy 1.09 | magixx 1.04 | chopper 1.00
  • K23 - Rating at event: mou 1.08 | neaLaN 0.96 | n0rb3r7 0.96 | fame 0.96 | AdreN 0.85
  • K23 - Rating past three months: n0rb3r7 1.17 | mou 1.11 | fame 1.10 | neaLaN 0.99 | AdreN 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced during the group stage of this event on June 28th, and Spirit won 2-1 (16-19 Inferno / 16-7 Nuke / 16-6 Overpass). Mir dominated with 78 kills and a 1.44 Rating across three maps.

Projected Maps:

                Spirit removes Vertigo

                K23 removes Dust2

                Spirit picks Nuke

                K23 picks Inferno

                K23 removes Mirage

               Spirit removes Ancient

               Overpass is left over.

  • I am projecting the same map pool as last time, but it is possible that things get switched up. I just think this is the most likely scenario, so I am going to stick with it. Spirit did just lose 3-16 on Nuke against NAVI, but they should still feel confident against K23.

Spirit - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.6% round win percent after receiving first death

Spirit - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): mir +17 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | degster +28 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | sdy +10 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

Spirit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (8 maps): 2-6 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 69.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Spirit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (8 maps): mir +15 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | sdy +7 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | degster +2 K/D Diff, 0.99 Rating

 

K23 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 62.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.9% round win percent after receiving first death

K23 - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): n0rb3r7 +18 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | mou +6 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating

K23 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (16 maps): 12-4 W/L record, 68.8% pistol round win percent, 74.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 38.3% round win percent after receiving first death

K23 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (16 maps): n0rb3r7 +52 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | fame +57 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | mou +47 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating 

 

Analysis:

K23 won a map last time these teams played, but I do not see that happening again. Spirit got off to a sluggish start on Inferno and quickly fell behind 3-10. They were then able to pull things back into their favor a bit, but ultimately, they fell short in overtime. It was clear on the next two maps who the better team was as Spirit won easily, 16-7 on Nuke and 16-6 on Overpass. It seems like it just took some time for Spirit to get settled into the series, and they looked much better once rifles came out on both sides.  It might be a lot to ask for another +30 K/D Diff performance from mir, but he should be a strong play for DFS regardless. Magixx had the second highest ADR in the series last time these teams played, and I think he looks like a tremendous play here at only $6,600. Degster was the only player besides Mir to finish with a positive kill/death ratio on all three maps of the previous series, and he seems pretty fairly priced at $8,600. Sdy looks like a good play based on pricing, though he has been a bit underwhelming at this event so far. Chopper is not my favorite play and his salary is not as cheap as it has been in the past, but the salary relief he still provides cannot be ignored and I like him in a stack. I think this should be a 2-0 sweep for Spirit this time, so a three stack makes the most sense to me. K23 is not a priority for me, but fame would probably be my favorite play on that side based on his form at this tournament as well as his pricing.

 

Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) vs. Gambit (World rank: #1) 

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (+140) | Gambit (-175) 

Map Handicap: NAVI +1.5 (-250) | Gambit -1.5 (+200)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-110)

 

  • This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket finals of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021. The losing team will move to the lower bracket while the winner moves on to the Grand Final.
  • NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.36 | electronic 1.19 | B1T 1.14 | Perfecto 1.00 | Boombl4 0.97
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.32 | electronic 1.11 | B1T 1.06 | Perfecto 1.02 | Boombl4 0.94
  • Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.30 | sh1ro 1.21 | Hobbit 1.18 | nafany 1.11 | interz 1.02
  • Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.25 | Ax1Le 1.21 | Hobbit 1.21 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.98

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced during the group stage of this event on July 1st, and Gambit won 2-1 (13-16 Mirage / 16-13 Dust2 / 16-11 Inferno). Despite his team losing the series, s1mple still had the most kills with 76 along with a 1.27 Rating across three maps.

Projected Maps:

                NAVI removes Vertigo

                Gambit removes Nuke

                NAVI picks Dust2

                Gambit picks Mirage

                Gambit removes Ancient

                NAVI removes Overpass

                Inferno is left over.

  • I am projecting the same map pool as the other day when these teams faced. I think Gambit would be most likely to consider changing their pick from Mirage after losing it last time, but I think both teams will be fine with playing these maps again.

NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): 10-7 W/L record, 47.1% pistol round win percent, 73.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.9% round win percent after receiving first death

NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): s1mple +105 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | electronic +13 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | B1T +32 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Perfecto +8 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating 

NAVI - Key stats on Mirage past three months (16 maps): 9-7 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 72.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.6% round win percent after receiving first death

NAVI - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (16 maps): s1mple +88 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | electronic +22 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | B1T +14 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Perfecto +4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating

 

Gambit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (21 maps): 14-7 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 78.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Gambit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (21 maps): sh1ro +113 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Hobbit +78 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Ax1Le +70 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating 

Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (18 maps): 14-4 W/L record, 55.6% pistol round win percent, 75.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.2% round win percent after receiving first death

Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (18 maps): sh1ro +141 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | Ax1Le +50 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Hobbit +33 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating

 

Analysis:

Gambit have now won 14 series in a row, so why would we want to pick against them? Draftkings finally priced up Ax1Le, but in doing so they also lowered Hobbit’s price to $7,800, which is already a reason to like Hobbit. Additionally, Hobbit has been extremely reliable for Gambit in this particular match-up against NAVI that we have now already seen six times since May 2021, so he has to be a priority here. I think Gambit win this series, but s1mple is way too cheap at $8,200 regardless of how his team does. Gambit would be the team to stack for me, but s1mple is a top two play from this series in my opinion, so I do not think stacking three from Gambit is my preference. I really like the idea of putting Hobbit and s1mple into the same lineup, but if you decide to just stack one team then I would at least build around one of those two. The pricing on Draftkings does tempt me towards the NAVI side of things with electronic at only $7,200 and B1T at only $6,400. Perfecto and Boombl4 are both cheap enough that one of them could make for a nice value play, but I would probably not have both in the same lineup. Gambit is definitely the safer team to play though, and sh1ro should crush if you have the salary to pay up. Ax1Le has finally gone up a little bit in a price, but he is still a strong play at $9,000. I would rather get to nafany over interz in this spot, but neither is a high priority for me on this slate.  

 

**Favorite Stacks: Spirit, Hobbit/s1mple stack

**Favorite CPT plays:  mir, Hobbit, s1mple, degster, sh1ro, Ax1Le

**Favorite value plays: magixx, sdy, electronic, B1T, nafany