Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. K23 (World rank: #38)
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-1110) | K23 (+725)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-235) | K23 +1.5 (+190)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+235) | Under 2.5 (-300)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket semi-finals of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021. The losing team will move to the lower bracket while the winner moves on to the upper bracket final.
- Gambit - Rating at event: Ax1Le 1.27 | Hobbit 1.20 | sh1ro 1.15 | nafany 1.13 | interz 1.02
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.25 | Hobbit 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.21 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.98
- K23 - Rating at event: mou 1.14 | fame 1.02 | neaLaN 0.97 | n0rb3r7 0.97 | AdreN 0.85
- K23 - Rating past three months: n0rb3r7 1.17 | mou 1.12 | fame 1.11 | neaLaN 0.99 | AdreN 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams faced in December 2020, but fame and AdreN did not sign with the K23 until January 2021, so the team was instead playing with kade0 and Keoz. Gambit did sweep that series 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-6 Inferno).
Projected Maps:
Gambit removes Nuke
K23 removes Vertigo
Gambit picks Dust2
K23 picks Inferno
Gambit removes Ancient
K23 removes Mirage
Overpass is left over.
- Gambit should remove Nuke per usual, and they would typically pick Vertigo but that should be K23’s initial ban. Gambit will be comfortable with whatever map they decide, but Dust2 probably makes the most sense especially since they are on an eight map winning streak there. Inferno has been the hot map for K23 with four wins in a row so they will likely choose that and hope to have Overpass as the decider. Both teams do like Overpass, so it seems pretty likely as the third map in this scenario.
Gambit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (21 maps): 14-7 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 78.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.2% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (21 maps): sh1ro +113 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Hobbit +78 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Ax1Le +70 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 10-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 80.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 35.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Gambit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Ax1Le +88 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | sh1ro +107 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | Hobbit +50 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | interz +39 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | nafany +13 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
K23 - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (21 maps): 10-11 W/L record, 69.0% pistol round win percent, 74.6% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.5% round win percent after receiving first death
K23 - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (21 maps): mou +28 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | fame +12 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
K23 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (15 maps): 12-3 W/L record, 73.3% pistol round win percent, 73.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 39.9% round win percent after receiving first death
K23 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (15 maps): n0rb3r7 +54 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | fame +62 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | mou +53 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating
Analysis:
If we want to look for a narrative here outside of Gambit being the best team in the world and winning easily, we could look at the fact that mou and AdreN were on the Gambit team that won the PGL Major Krakow 2017 with Hobbit. All signs point to Gambit making quick work of this series, but mou and AdreN are in a ‘revenge spot’ if you want to consider the narrative, so they could be interesting one-offs for GPPs. Fame has had a ton of impact for K23 at this event and should be one of the most popular options on his team at $5,000. N0rb3r7 has been the highest rated played for K23 in the past but he has struggled on some maps recently, so paying $6,600 for him against Gambit feels like a stretch. NeaLaN has been decent but is never usually a top option for his team. With all that being said, Gambit have to be the clear focus here and stacking three from Gambit makes a ton of sense. It really just comes down to which Gambit players are going to have the biggest day, which is tricky only because all five will probably do well on Friday. Ax1Le has looked sharp recently and is my favorite play based on pricing. Sh1ro and Hobbit are close enough in pricing that I think sh1ro is the better play, but both should definitely be considered as strong plays. Nafany and interz certainly could be crucial parts of a stack if they perform well enough for their cheap salaries, with nafany being the higher upside player for GPPs based on his aggression. My order of preference is Ax1Le, sh1ro, Hobbit, nafany, interz.
Natus Vincere (World rank: #2) vs. Spirit (World rank: #15)
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-165) | Spirit (+135)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (+190) | Spirit +1.5 (-235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket semi-finals of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021. The losing team will move to the lower bracket while the winner moves on to the upper bracket final.
- NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.35 | electronic 1.19 | B1T 1.13 | Boombl4 0.98 | Perfecto 0.94
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.31 | electronic 1.11 | B1T 1.06 | Perfecto 1.01 | Boombl4 0.94
- Spirit - Rating at event: mir 1.36 | degster 1.15 | sdy 1.08 | magixx 1.07 | chopper 1.00
- Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.21 | degster 1.12 | sdy 1.10 | magixx 1.05 | chopper 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on May 28th at EPIC League CIS 2021, and Spirit swept 2-0 (16-12 Mirage / 16-8 Dust2). Sdy was the highest rated player with a 1.35 Rating across two maps, but s1mple still had the most kills with 45 total.
Projected Maps:
NAVI removes Overpass
Spirit removes Ancient
NAVI picks Nuke
Spirit picks Dust2
NAVI removes Vertigo
Spirit removes Inferno
Mirage is left over.
- I went with a similar map veto as last time these teams faced, with NAVI switching up their map pick to Nuke this time. I think that Inferno could make some sense too, but Nuke seems the most favorable for them. NAVI have not had the opportunity to pick Nuke in their last two series played as Gambit and forZe both banned it, but they picked it the series before that against Akuma. Spirit dominated NAVI last time on Dust2 and they are on a seven map win streak there, so it should be their pick in this spot. Mirage would be the most like decider in this scenario.
NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 73.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 37.5% round win percent after receiving first death
NAVI - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): s1mple +36 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | electronic +8 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | B1T +12 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): 10-7 W/L record, 47.1% pistol round win percent, 73.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 29.9% round win percent after receiving first death
NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): s1mple +105 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | electronic +13 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | B1T +32 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Perfecto +8 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 75.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.5% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): mir +29 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | degster +39 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | sdy +12 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (16 maps): 14-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 75.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 43.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (16 maps): mir +83 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | chopper +40 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | sdy +39 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | magixx +22 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | degster +45 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Analysis:
Spirit won this match-up convincingly last time, and the odds show that they have a solid chance of beating the #2 team in the world once again. Mir has been incredible at this tournament, and it is impossible for me to ignore him at only $7,800. I think Spirit at least take a map here, especially their map pick if it is Dust2. You can never count out NAVI on Dust2, but Spirit are scary on that map, and Spirit’s current seven map win streak on Dust2 started with a 16-8 win against NAVI. I think degster, sdy, magixx, and chopper are all fine plays because they are priced so cheap that they offer salary relief to help us pay for the Gambit studs. There is a real chance that Spirit even sweeps 2-0 again, so stacking Spirit is completely reasonable. If NAVI do pick Nuke, then Spirit would be guaranteed 15 CT rounds on that map which would typically be beneficial for DFS scoring. As for NAVI, the pricing is actually not outrageous either, and s1mple has to be a priority as always. B1T has been the X factor for NAVI at this event, so he is definitely worth a look at only $7,400. I feel that Electronic is appropriately priced at $8,400, but if NAVI do end up picking Nuke, then he could have some extra upside with how aggressively he plays outside on that map. Perfecto and Boombl4 would not be a focus for me, especially not in the same lineup, but one of them could be a decent punt play. My favorite way to play this slate is to focus on Spirit as the underdog so I can fit in the pieces that I like, though having players from both teams might work out nicely too.
**Favorite Stacks: Gambit, Spirit
**Favorite CPT plays: Ax1Le, mir, sh1ro, Hobbit, s1mple
**Favorite value plays: degster, sdy, nafany, interz, magixx, chopper