Endpoint (World rank: #31) vs. HAVU (World rank: #35)
Moneyline Odds: Endpoint (-165) | HAVU (+135)
Map Handicap: Endpoint -1.5 (+210) | HAVU +1.5 (-265)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-120) | Under 2.5 (-105)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Pinnacle Cup II.
- Endpoint - Rating at event: mezii 1.26 | CRUC1AL 1.18 | Thomas 1.11 | Surreal 1.08 | MiGHTYMAX 1.05
- Endpoint - Rating past three months: mezii 1.23 | CRUC1AL 1.11 | Thomas 1.08 | Surreal 1.01 | MiGHTYMAX 0.98
- HAVU - Rating at event: xseveN 1.10 | Aerial 1.09 | ZOREE 1.03 | sLowi 1.00 | disturbed 0.90
- HAVU - Rating past three months: xseveN 1.07 | Aerial 1.06 | ZOREE 1.03 | sLowi 1.01 | disturbed 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Jemi was still on HAVU instead of disturbed when the teams most recently faced in May, and HAVU won that series 2-0 (16-11 Dust2 / 16-13 Overpass) with Aerial as the top frag (53 Kills, 1.35 Rating).
Projected Maps:
Endpoint removes Nuke
HAVU removes Vertigo
Endpoint picks Overpass
HAVU picks Dust2
Endpoint removes Mirage
HAVU removes Ancient
Inferno is left over.
Key Stats:
Endpoint - Key stats on Overpass past three months (23 maps): 16-7 W/L record, 56.5% pistol round win percent, 79.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 30.9% round win percent after receiving first death
Endpoint - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (23 maps): mezii +163 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | Thomas +34 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | CRUC1AL +51 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Endpoint - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (20 maps): 9-11 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 72.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.1% round win percent after receiving first death
Endpoint - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (20 maps): mezii +90 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Thomas -9 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Surreal +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
HAVU- Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 2-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 68.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 24.3% round win percent after receiving first death
HAVU - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): Aerial +12 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
HAVU - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): 7-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 79.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 34.1% round win percent after receiving first death
HAVU - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): xseveN +34 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | Aerial +56 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | sLowi +35 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | ZOREE +38 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Analysis:
In the past two weeks, HAVU beat ENCE, Fiend and Copenhagen Flames, and they also won a map (Dust2) against Entropiq. They also swept this Endpoint roster twice earlier in the year back when jemi was playing instead of disturbed, so there are some reasons to like the underdog here. I do not see this being a decisive victory for either side though, so my favorite play would be to have exposure to both sides. I am predicting a 2-1 win for Endpoint, and Endpoint would be my preferred stack if I had to choose one. Mezii should be in for another big day and his $9,000 salary seems very reasonable in this spot, which makes him one of the strongest plays on the slate. However, my second favorite play from this series is on HAVU with Aerial at $7,400 based on the pricing and projected maps, and I do think it is reasonable to play both mezii and Aerial together in the same lineup. As for a third option to stack with them, my order of preference would be CRUC1AL, ZOREE, xseveN, then Thomas, but none of them seem to be as strong of plays as mezii and Aerial. The cheap value options from this series are not my favorite so I would mainly avoid those as I think the star players should shine in a competitive series.
Spirit (World rank: #13) vs. Fiend (World rank: #27)
Moneyline Odds: Spirit (-195) | Fiend (+160)
Map Handicap: Spirit -1.5 (+160) | Fiend +1.5 (-200)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-133)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Pinnacle Cup II.
- Spirit - Rating at event: N/A
- Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.18 | degster 1.14 | sdy 1.05 | magixx 1.02 | chopper 0.95
- Fiend - Rating at event: dream3r 1.28 | h4rn 1.16 | REDSTAR 1.03 | bubble 0.99 | v1c7oR 0.91
- Fiend - Rating past three months: dream3r 1.22 | h4rn 1.22 | REDSTAR 1.16 | v1c7oR 1.05 | bubble 0.99
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Mar was still on Fiend instead of h4rn when these teams faced back in April, and Spirit won that series 2-1 (9-16 Mirage / 19-17 Overpass / 16-6 Nuke), though bubble was the top frag (70 kills, 1.20 Rating).
Projected Maps:
Spirit removes Vertigo
Fiend removes Dust2
Spirit picks Overpass
Fiend picks Mirage
Spirit removes Ancient
Fiend removes Nuke
Inferno is left over.
Key Stats:
Spirit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 73.7% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.2% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (10 maps): degster +58 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | mir +21 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | sdy +13 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 6-6 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 73.1% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.2% round win percent after receiving first death
Spirit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (12 maps): degster +59 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | mir +26 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | sdy +32 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Fiend - Key stats on Overpass past three months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L record, 59.1% pistol round win percent, 79.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 39.8% round win percent after receiving first death
Fiend- Notable performers on Overpass past three months (11 maps): dream3r +86 K/D Diff, 1.46 Rating | REDSTAR +58 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | h4rn +53 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | bubble +37 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
Fiend - Key stats on Mirage past three months (35 maps): 25-10 W/L record, 65.7% pistol round win percent, 80.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 32.4% round win percent after receiving first death
Fiend - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (35 maps): h4rn +223 K/D Diff, 1.32 Rating | dream3r +206 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | REDSTAR +138 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating
Analysis:
The stats continue to look impressive for Fiend, but they play against a lot of the weaker tier two teams. Meanwhile, they have lost four of their last five series against top 30 opponents, and they have a difficult match-up here against Spirit. The map pool could actually be decent for Fiend considering they should pick Mirage which is their most played map, and Spirit should pick a map that is pretty strong for Fiend, like Overpass. Still, I think that Spirit should outclass them based on talent, and I think a 2-0 sweep for Spirit is more than likely. If Spirit do drop a map, then I still favor them to win in three, and they would probably have one map where they just destroy Fiend. Degster has been playing at a high level lately and the projected map pool looks solid for him, so he is my favorite play here especially since he is cheaper than mir, though I do still think mir looks like an excellent play as well. Sdy and magixx should both be great value plays with chopper as more of a punt play. I think that sdy could end up as one of the best point per dollar plays on this slate, and I really like putting him at captain too, which would open up some salary for other pay up options. Degster and magixx are still quarantining in Cologne until July 19th due to COVID-19 contact tracing, but I am not concerned about that causing any issues. I do not see this being a favorable spot for Fiend, so I am avoiding them in DFS, but h4rn and dream3r both look like fine options if you want to go that direction. A three stack from Spirit will be my main focus here.
**Favorite Stacks: Spirit, mezii/Aerial
**Favorite CPT plays: degster, mezii, Aerial, mir, CRUC1AL, xseveN
**Favorite value plays: sdy, magixx, ZOREE, Thomas