G2 (World rank: #4) vs. Complexity (World rank: #25) - 9:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: G2 (-305) | Complexity (+240) 

Round Handicap: G2 -4.5 (+105) | Complexity +4.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-one online series for the Group A upper bracket semi-final of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. 
  • G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.33 | m0NESY 1.30 | huNter- 1.10 | Aleksib 0.92 | JACKZ 0.91
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: junior 1.26 | floppy 1.20 | FaNg 1.17 | JT 1.09 | Grim 0.93

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

G2 removes Overpass, Nuke, Ancient

CoL removes Dust2, Mirage, Inferno/Vertigo

Most likely map: Vertigo or Inferno

Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 16-9 on Vertigo.

G2 fell short in the PGL Major Stockholm grand final against NAVI, which led to them making some huge roster moves. They needed an elite AWPer, so they went out and acquired the 16-year-old AWP prodigy from NAVI Junior, m0NESY to replace the underperforming AMANEK. Then they swapped IGLs with OG, which brought in Aleksib to replace nexa to perhaps find an in-game leader capable of calling around the best rifler in the world, NiKo. The new roster looks excellent on paper, but this is their official debut, so backing them as a heavy favorite in a best-of-one format is not necessarily a guaranteed lock. 

As for the new Complexity lineup, they have shown great potential in their five maps played together so far. They beat Gambit on the CIS team’s signature map, Vertigo, and they managed to look competitive elsewhere despite JT playing on high ping due to visa issues. JT has resolved such issues and he is now with the team, so it will be exciting to see the team play together without any ping problems.

Predicting the outcome between two new rosters can be difficult, but I think back to the time G2 played Extra Salt at IEM Summer in a best-of-one on Inferno. G2 played with insane confidence and spanked Extra Salt, 16-1. Complexity is obviously a much different team than the old Extra Salt, which had only included JT & FaNg at that time, but I expect G2 to play with similar confidence against the North Americans. I think Vertigo or Inferno would be the most likely map played here, and Complexity has already played overtime matches on both maps in the past week or so, which gives G2 a way to prepare for these maps. G2 is the much more talented team, and NiKo appears to still be in world-class form based on recent Twitch streams, so I think it makes plenty of sense to back G2 here. Perhaps a more difficult opponent might give G2 trouble, like with m0NESY adjusting to tier one play, but Complexity should be an easy win for G2. My preference on Draftkings would be to stack three from G2 with NiKo being a ‘must play’ for me.

  • M0NESY was dominant on Vertigo in 2021 with a 1.51 K/D ratio, 1.40 Rating and 0.89 kills per round across 23 maps played with NAVI Junior.
  • NiKo led his team on Inferno in K/D ratio (1.17) and Rating (1.20) across 41 maps played in 2021.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

NiKo ($9,400) | m0NESY ($9,000) | huNter- ($8,000) | JACKZ ($6,000) | Aleksib ($7,000) | floppy ($6,400)

 

BIG (World rank: #7) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #13) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-130) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (+105) 

Round Handicap: BIG -2.5 (+115) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-one online series for the Group A upper bracket semi-final of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. 
  • BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.21 | tabseN 1.12 | syrsoN 1.08 | k1to 0.99 | tiziaN 0.91
  • Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: phzy 1.05 | hampus 1.01 | REZ 1.00 | Plopski 0.95 | es3tag 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. Outside of a showmatch, the teams have not faced in September 2021 when NiP won 2-1 (14-16 Dust2 / 16-13 Mirage / 16-5 Inferno), but both lineups have since changed, so I don’t put much weight into that result.

Map Projections:

BIG removes Ancient, Inferno, Overpass/Nuke

NiP removes Vertigo, Dust2, Mirage

Most likely map: Nuke/Overpass

Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 16-13 on Nuke.

Last week, NiP announced that device would be out for several months, which means that phzy will remain called up from Young Ninjas. The team replaced LNZ with es3tag in November 2021 and they never really got into a rhythm, and now they are without their star AWPer too. This lineup has played 12 maps together, which has resulted in a weak 4-8 W/L record, though they did face strong opposition. Still, NiP is in a weird spot right now, and the future of this roster is certainly in question. 

On the other hand, the future looks bright for BIG. They made a massive move bringing in faveN in December 2021, which was the most expensive deal for a German CS:GO player ever. FaveN has not done much within this lineup yet with a 0.99 Rating across 11 maps played, but he is a clear upgrade from gade, and it seems like only a matter of time before he gets more comfortable within the BIG roster. BIG have played 11 maps with this lineup which has resulted in a 5-6 W/L record, including best-of-three wins against Fnatic & K23. BIG likely still have some work to do before they reach their full potential, but I like the path that they are on much more so than NiP.

Dust2 has always been BIG’s most reliable map, but we know that NiP will surely ban it away in a best-of-one. I think Nuke or Overpass are the two most likely maps here. Overpass has historically been one of NiP’s better maps, but they’ve struggled on it recently while BIG have looked solid as of late, so it is a possibility, though Nuke seems more likely. Either way, BIG will probably end up playing a map that they are relatively vulnerable on, which gives NiP a puncher’s chance despite the fact that BIG have the better roster at the moment. I give BIG the edge here still, but this could certainly be a close map, so adding some exposure to NiP could make sense on Draftkings. My preferred play would be to stack two or three from BIG, with REZ as a possible one-off given his cheap $6,600 price tag. FaveN’s pricing seems to be based on his performance with Sprout rather than his role with BIG, so he is a lower priority for me at $8,600. My favorite play from this match would be syrsoN since he will be the superior AWPer on the server, and he often thrives in those situations.

  • SyrsoN leads his team on Nuke with a 1.93 K/D ratio and 1.53 Rating in the two maps that they have played with their new lineup.
  • TabseN leads his team on Overpass with a 1.69 K/D ratio and 1.64 Rating in the two maps that they have played with their new lineup.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

syrsoN ($6,800) | tabseN ($7,800) | REZ ($6,600) | faveN ($8,600) | phzy ($8,400) | k1to ($6,200) | hampus ($7,600) 

 

*Preferred Stacks: G2, BIG

*Favorite Spend-Ups: NiKo, tabseN, m0NESY, huNter-, faveN

*Favorite Value Plays: syrsoN, JACKZ, REZ, Aleksib