G2 (World rank: #4) vs. MIBR (World rank: #46) - 7:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: G2 (-1150) | MIBR (+750) 

Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (-245) | MIBR +1.5 (+195)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+235) | Under 2.5 (-300)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the Last Chance Stage of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The winning team moves on to the Spring Final, while the losing team will play in the Spring Showdown.
  • G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.34 | m0NESY 1.08 | huNter- 1.05 | JACKZ 1.03 | Aleksib 1.02
  • G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.32 | m0NESY 1.20 | huNter- 1.06 | Aleksib 0.97 | JACKZ 0.93
  • MIBR - Rating at event: brnz4n 1.09 | exit 1.04 | JOTA 1.03 | Tuurtle 0.96 | WOOD7 0.91
  • MIBR - Rating past three months: exit 1.20 | brnz4n 1.14 | JOTA 1.14 | Tuurtle 1.14 | WOOD7 1.09

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

G2 removes Overpass

MIBR removes Mirage

G2 picks Inferno

MIBR picks Ancient

G2 removes Vertigo

MIBR removes Nuke

Dust2 is left over

Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-0.

G2 have played six maps together with their new lineup and they have won four of them, including map wins against Vitality, Ninjas in Pyjamas and Complexity. MIBR will be the easiest team that G2 have faced so far besides maybe Complexity, and I am expecting them to make quick work of this match-up, especially now that they already have a few maps played under their belt. MIBR have proven at this event that they can compete at this level, even without Chelo, but Vitality quickly swept them in their most recent best-of-three, and I expect G2 to outclass them again on Sunday. MIBR beat NAVI in a best-of-one, and their new lineup is very solid, but I just can’t see them getting past G2 in a best-of-three format. NiKo is the highest rated rifler and the second highest rated player overall at this event with a 1.34 Rating across six maps, and he has not slowed down at all from his dominant 2021 form, which makes G2 a scary team to face. MIBR’s go to map has been Ancient, which G2 last played in the PGL Major Stockholm Final as their own map pick, so clearly G2 has put in a lot of work on that map in the past, though their new roster has not played an official match on it yet. G2 won’t be able to pick their favorite map, Mirage, since MIBR will likely ban it, but G2 should feel comfortable picking Inferno, where their new lineup has an 84% 5v4 conversion rate across two maps played. I would consider G2 to be a heavy favorite on Nuke, Dust2 and Vertigo as well, so I certainly expect G2 to win here, and a sweep seems most probable. 

  • On Inferno, JACKZ leads his team with a 1.29 K/D ratio, while NiKo leads with a 1.17 Rating across two maps played. Aleksib is the only member of G2 with a K/D ratio and Rating below 1.00 during that time. 
  • On Ancient, m0NESY was impressive in 2021 with a 1.41 K/D ratio and 1.41 Rating across five maps played with NAVI Junior. NiKo led G2 on Ancient in 2021 with a 1.21 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

m0NESY ($9,200) | NiKo ($9,800) | JACKZ ($6,200) | huNter- ($8,600) | Aleksib ($7,600) | JOTA ($5,400) 

 

Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #7) - 10:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-320) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (+250) 

Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (+105) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +1.5 (-125)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-165)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the Last Chance Stage of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The winning team moves on to the Spring Final, while the losing team will play in the Spring Showdown.
  • Natus Vincere - Rating at event: s1mple 1.18 | b1t 1.07  | electronic 0.97 | Perfecto 0.92 | Boombl4 0.86
  • Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.39 | electronic 1.17 | b1t 1.16 |  Boombl4 0.99 | Perfecto  0.97
  • Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: hampus 1.10 | REZ 1.00 | Plopski 0.97 | phzy 0.92 | es3tag 0.91
  • Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: REZ 1.02 | phzy 1.02 | hampus 1.02 | Plopski 0.98 | es3tag 0.93

 H2H Data:

  • These rosters just faced on Friday when NiP pulled the upset 2-1 (11-16 Nuke / 16-11 Overpass / 16-7 Mirage). Hampus led his team with 62 kills and a 1.35 Rating, though s1mple had the most kills on the server with 67 across three maps played. 

Map Projections:

Natus Vincere removes Vertigo

Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Dust2

Natus Vincere picks Nuke

Ninjas in Pyjamas picks Overpass

Natus Vincere removes Ancient

Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Inferno

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.

These teams just faced on Friday and NAVI lost as (-550) moneyline favorites. Their odds have dropped for the rematch, though I think this is a much better spot for them. The BLAST Premier Spring Groups format allows these teams multiple chances to qualify for the Spring Final, which means that there is room for these teams to lose throughout the event. In 2022, NAVI’s only win so far has been against Liquid, which was when NAVI were in the single elimination bracket and were facing elimination if they had lost. NAVI are in a similar spot once again with their back up against the wall, which means I expect the best team in the world to show up with a much stronger performance this time around. If NAVI play to the best of their ability, then there is no reason that NiP should even be able to take a map. You can read my previous prediction for Friday’s match-up here: https://www.dfsalarm.com/articles/TonyLavender/121356/esports-csgo-dfs-playbook-february-4

  • On Nuke, b1t leads NAVI with a 1.35 K/D ratio, while b1t & s1mple are tied at the top of the team with a 1.22 Rating across eight maps played in the past three months.
  • On Overpass, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.51 K/D ratio and 1.33 Ratinga cross four maps played in the past three months.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

s1mple ($9,600) | b1t ($8,000)  | Perfecto ($5,800) | electronic ($9,000) | hampus ($5,600) | Boombl4 ($7,000)

 

Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. BIG (World rank: #14) - 12:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (Even) | BIG (-120) 

Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-280) | BIG -1.5 (+225)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the Last Chance Stage of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The winning team moves on to the Spring Final, while the losing team will play in the Spring Showdown.
  • Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 1.08 | Lucky 0.88 | k0nfig  0.87 | Xyp9x 0.80 | gla1ve 0.80
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.18 | k0nfig 1.03 | gla1ve 0.97 | Lucky 0.94 | Xyp9x 0.92
  • BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.31 | faveN 1.07 | tabseN  1.05 | k1to 0.94 | tiziaN 0.90
  • BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.20 | syrsoN 1.13 | tabseN 1.10 | k1to 0.99 | tiziaN 0.91

 H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Astralis removes Vertigo

BIG removes Inferno

Astralis picks Nuke

BIG picks Dust2

Astralis removes Overpass

BIG removes Ancient

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.

These teams just faced on Friday and Astralis was a (-160) moneyline favorite, but BIG is now favored in the rematch. I thought that the first meeting between these teams was a coinflip, so I backed BIG as an underdog, and the Germans came through with a sweep. Astralis picked Mirage, but I think that there were better options available. BIG have never recorded a win on Ancient since it entered the map pool in 2021, so if BIG are going to ban Inferno again, then Astralis could look to punish with Ancient. The Danes actually have their highest win rate on Ancient across any map in the pool with a 2-1 W/L record with this lineup. Another strong option for Astralis would be Nuke, which has historically been one of Astralis’ best maps, plus BIG just got embarrassed 16-1 by FaZe on that map on Saturday. Thus, if Astralis manage the map pool better, than they should be able to at least take a map, and possibly win this series. Plus, Astralis tends to do better in rematch situations since they are a strategy-heavy team, and gla1ve will likely be better prepared for his opponents this time around. Thus, I’m actually backing Astralis this time around as an underdog, though BIG have looked solid at this event.  You can read my previous prediction for Friday’s match-up here: https://www.dfsalarm.com/articles/TonyLavender/121356/esports-csgo-dfs-playbook-february-4

  • On Dust2, blameF leads his team with a 1.15 K/D ratio and 1.17 Rating across four maps played.
  • On Nuke, blameF leads his team with a 1.01 K/D ratio and 1.06 Rating across 12 maps played.
  • On Mirage, blameF leads his team with a 1.33 K/D ratio and 1.26 Rating across 11 maps played.
  • SyrsoN is the third highest rated player at the event with a 1.31 Rating across 11 maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

blameF ($8,400) | k0nfig ($7,800) | xyp9x ($5,000) | syrsoN ($8,200) | gla1ve ($6,400) | tabseN ($7,200) | Lucky ($5,400) | faveN ($8,800)

 

*Favorite Stacks: G2, NAVI, Astralis

*Preferred Captains: m0NESY, blameF, s1mple, NiKo, k0nfig, b1t, huNter-, electronic, syrsoN

*Top Value Options: Perfecto, JACKZ, xyp9x, gla1ve