Vitality (World rank: #3) vs. MIBR (World rank: #46) - 7:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-725) | MIBR (+500)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (-175) | MIBR +1.5 (+140)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+185) | Under 2.5 (-225)
- This is a best-of-three online series for the knockout stage round two of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The losing team will play in the Last Chance Stage.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.53 | dupreeh 1.15 | apEX 1.08 | Magisk 1.08 | misutaaa 0.98
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.33 | dupreeh 1.15 | Magisk 1.08 | apEX 1.02 | misutaaa 1.01
- MIBR - Rating at event: exit 1.13 | JOTA 1.12 | brnz4n 1.08 | Tuurtle 1.02 | WOOD7 0.93
- MIBR - Rating past three months: exit 1.22 | JOTA 1.16 | Tuurtle 1.16 | brnz4n 1.15 | WOOD7 1.10
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Vitality removes Ancient
MIBR removes Mirage
Vitality picks Overpass
MIBR picks Nuke
Vitality removes Dust2
MIBR removes Vertigo
Inferno is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-0.
This MIBR roster is better than any other roster they’ve had in the past year or two (even without chelo for now) and they proved it by following up their best-of-one win over NAVI with a best-of-three sweep against Complexity. The former Bravos core of JOTA, Tuurtle, and WOOD7 continue to bring a boost of firepower to this lineup, and I have confidence that MIBR can establish themselves as top team. With that being said, Vitality are an elite team who have a massive edge over MIBR in terms of firepower. We still don’t fully know what to expect from the new French roster, but they have looked good so far having won two out of their three maps played together. ZywOo is currently the highest rated player at the entire event with a 1.53 Rating during that time. If MIBR were ever going to stay competitive with Vitality, it would probably be now, while Vitality are still adapting to their new roster, but I just don’t see it happening, especially in a best-of-three. The other thing that MIBR have going against them is that Vitality should ban Ancient immediately, which takes away MIBR’s go-to map at the moment. Is there another map that MIBR could possibly pull the upset on? I don’t really think so. Their favorite map in 2021 was Nuke, which is one of ZywOo’s best maps with a 1.32 Rating across 36 maps played in 2021, and we would expect Vitality to have a tactical advantage on that strategy-heavy map. Another possible option for them would be Dust2, but Vitality have the edge in talent and their superior aim should win out on that aim-heavy map.. Inferno would be the only other option based on MIBR’s preferences, and Vitality are undefeated with their new lineup on that map, dominating Evil Geniuses 16-3 and beating FaZe in overtime, 19-15. Thus, all signs point to this as a quick sweep for Vitality.
- ZywOo is the highest rated player at the event with a 1.53 Rating across three maps played.
- Magisk has been the most aggressive player in the Vitality lineup, taking 27.8% of the team’s opening duels. He has only won 50% of his opening duels so far across three maps, and a weaker opponent like MIBR could boost his stats tremendously.
- Vitality lost 10-16 against FaZe on Overpass on Sunday, but ZywOo still finished with 26 kills and a 1.46 Rating.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($10,000) | magisk ($8,200) | apEX ($7,200) | misutaaa ($6,000) | dupreeh ($9,000) | Tuurtle ($5,400)
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #7) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-550) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (+405)
Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (-140) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +1.5 (+115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-200)
- This is a best-of-three online series for the knockout stage round two of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The losing team will play in the Last Chance Stage.
- Natus Vincere - Rating at event: s1mple 1.20 | b1t 1.09 | Perfecto 1.04 | electronic 1.01 | Boobml4 0.81
- Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.40 | electronic 1.20 | b1t 1.17 | Perfecto 1.02 | Boombl4 1.00
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: hampus 1.22 | es3tag 0.95 | REZ 0.94 | Plopski 0.94 | phzy 0.93
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: REZ 1.03 | phzy 1.03 | hampus 1.01 | Plopski 0.98 | es3tag 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in October at PGL Major Stockholm, but NiP was still playing with device & LNZ instead of phzy & es3tag. NAVI won that series 2-0 (16-9 Nuke / 16-9 Overpass). B1t, electronic and simple all finished with at least 43 kills each across two maps played.
Map Projections:
Natus Vincere removes Vertigo
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Dust2
Natus Vincere picks Nuke
Ninjas in Pyjamas picks Overpass
Natus Vincere removes Inferno
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.
NAVI got back to their dominant form on Thursday against Liquid as they often do in elimination games. This match-up against NiP is not an elimination match since the losing team will play in the Last Chance Stage, which does give me slightly less confidence in NAVI on Friday since they play better with pressure. Still, NAVI is the best team in the world, and NiP are highly overrated at number seven, given their recent roster changes. Phzy has done a fine job in replacing device, but this NiP lineup is super underwhelming for a top 10 team. NiP have a 6-10 W/L record across 16 maps played with this lineup, which isn’t terrible given the level of competition that they have faced, but it is certainly not an elite record. During that same timespan, NAVI have a 13-6 W/L record across 19 maps played against similar competition, with NAVI winning six best-of-threes in a row. Perhaps NiP can steal a map like Overpass, which NAVI have only played three times in the past three months with their most recent result as an 11-16 loss against Liquid. However, NAVI should have the map pool significantly in their favor, especially if they pick Nuke, where they have a 7-1 W/L record in the past three months. I think this should be another 2-0 sweep for NAVI, though I’m less confident in the result than on Thursday since NAVI do not have their backs up against the wall facing elimination.
- On Nuke, b1t leads his team with a 1.37 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating across eight maps played in the past three months.
- On Overpass, s1mple leads his team with a 1.66 K/D ratio and 1.41 Rating across three maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
b1t ($8,000) | s1mple ($9,800) | electronic ($8,800) | Perfecto ($7,000) | hampus ($5,600) | phzy ($6,200) | Boombl4 ($5,800)
Astralis (World rank: #8) vs. BIG (World rank: #14) - 2:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-160) | BIG (+130)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+185) | BIG +1.5 (-225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three online series for the knockout stage round two of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The losing team will play in the Last Chance Stage.
- Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 1.12 | k0nfig 0.94 | Xyp9x 0.87 | Lucky 0.85 | gla1ve 0.79
- Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.19 | k0nfig 1.04 | gla1ve 0.98 | Lucky 0.94 | Xyp9x 0.93
- BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.27 | tabseN 1.09 | faveN 1.06 | k1to 0.96 | tiziaN 0.94
- BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.20 | syrsoN 1.11 | tabseN 1.11 | k1to 1.00 | tiziaN 0.91
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Astralis removes Vertigo
BIG removes Ancient
Astralis picks Inferno
BIG picks Dust2
Astralis removes Overpass
BIG removes Nuke
Mirage is left over
Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 2-1.
We haven’t seen BIG beat any top level teams like Astralis yet, but they now have an 8-9 W/L record across 17 maps played, and they look like a solid team with all roles covered. Every member of BIG has a K/D ratio and Rating of at least 1.00 during that time, besides tiziaN, which makes sense as he is a support player. FaveN also seems to be getting more comfortable with each map played, which is a great sign for the Germans. Astralis have a similar win rate with an 18-20 W/L record across 38 maps played, but the Danish team does not have much of an identity right now, and blameF and k0nfig are the only two players with a K/D ratio and Rating of at least 1.00 during that time. Astralis originally brought in Lucky to be their AWPer, but then they put him on the rifle for a period of time, and now he is back on the AWP. There was concern after Lucky signed that he might struggle to AWP at the tier one level, and the fact that the team even took him off of that role for a period of time speaks volumes. SyrsoN is in excellent form right now, and he tends to thrive when he is facing a weak AWP presence, so I think this match-up could end up coming down to the AWP diff. I think that Astralis should be able to at least take a map here with Inferno or Ancient looking like no brainer ‘punish’ options, depending on what BIG bans. With this lineup, Astralis only have a win rate above 50% on two maps: Dust2 & Ancient. BIG are possibly the best Dust2 team in the world, and the German lineup has already found success on that map with a 3-1 W/L record and 82.4% 5v4 conversion rate, so Ancient would probably be Astralis’ top pick, but I expect BIG to ban it. Inferno has historically been a much better map for Astralis than BIG, so I would favor the Danes on that map if it were played, but the rest of the map pool could easily go either way, and I have trouble believing that Astralis should be (-160) favorites in this spot. I think this series is a coinflip at best, and I am going to roll with BIG as the underdogs based on their recent form and momentum.
- On Dust2, SyrsoN leads BIG with a 1.45 K/D ratio and 1.40 Rating across four maps played.
- On Mirage, SyrsoN is the only member of BIG with a K/D ratio above 1.00 (1.03), while tabseN leads with a 1.06 Rating across three maps played.
- On Inferno, K0nfig leads Astralis with a 1.31 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating across six maps played.
- On Dust2, Xyp9x leads Astralis with a 1.14 K/D ratio, while blameF leads with a 1.16 Rating across three maps played.
- On Mirage, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.39 K/D ratio and 1.30 Rating across 10 maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
syrsoN ($6,400) | tabseN ($6,800) | faveN ($7,800) | k0nfig ($8,400) | blameF ($9,200) | Xyp9x ($5,200) | k1to ($5,400)
*Favorite Stacks: Vitality, NAVI, BIG
*Preferred Captains: ZywOo, b1t, s1mple, magisk, electronic, faveN, k0nfig
*Top Value Options: syrsoN, apEX, tabseN, Perfecto, misutaaa, Xyp9x, hampus