Complexity (World rank: #28) vs. MIBR (World rank: #46) - 7:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-225) | MIBR (+180)

Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (+135) | MIBR +1.5 (-165)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the knockout stage round one of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The losing team is eliminated and will play in the Spring Showdown.
  • Complexity - Rating at event: Grim 0.99 | JT 0.89 | floppy 0.88 | FaNg 0.76 | junior 0.62
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: junior 1.24 | floppy 1.19 | FaNg 1.16 | JT 1.08 | Grim 0.94
  • MIBR - Rating at event: brnz4n 1.23 | exit 0.97 | JOTA 0.94 | Tuurtle 0.92 | WOOD7 0.84
  • MIBR - Rating past three months: BRNZ4N 1.22 | exit 1.21 | JOTA 1.15 | Tuurtle 1.16 | WOOD7 1.11

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The former Extra Salt core (floppy, FaNg and JT) did face MIBR with boltz playing instead of brnz4n back in November at a smaller event and Extra Salt swept 2-0 (16-5 Vertigo / 16-13 Overpass), but both rosters have since changed.

Map Projections:

Complexity removes Dust2

MIBR removes Mirage

Complexity picks Overpass

MIBR picks Ancient

Complexity removes Vertigo 

MIBR removes Inferno

Nuke is left over

Prediction/Narrative: MIBR wins 2-1.

Chelo tested positive for COVID-19 prior to the start of this event, which means that brnz4n has been standing in, and he has delivered as the highest rated member of the team with a 1.23 Rating across three maps played. MIBR made some solid roster moves in recent months, bringing in JOTA, WOOD7 and Tuurtle, who all formerly played for Bravos. This seems to be the best lineup that MIBR has had in a while, and they started this event with a bang, taking down NAVI 16-12 on Dust2. Best-of-ones can sometimes produce wild results, but it has to be huge confidence builder to take down the best team in the world no matter what. MIBR went on to lose against OG & Astralis, but they didn’t look completely outmatched against tier one opponents as they often did last year. On the other side, we have Complexity, who have only won a single map with this lineup across seven maps played. The map win did come against the number two team in the world, Gambit, and it was on Gambit’s map pick, Vertigo, so it was a great win to pick up, but coL has not had a taste of success since. JT previously had visa issues which caused him to play on high ping, but the team has played two maps now since that problem has been resolved. It’s difficult to compare two new rosters, but I don’t think the gap between these teams is as wide as the odds make it out to be. I think that MIBR are a live underdog here in a series that could be tight. 

Complexity haven’t played Overpass with their lineup yet, but it could be a possible option for them here considering it is one of MIBR’s weakest maps, and Extra Salt used it as a bit of a punish pick when they faced MIBR back in November. Ancient has been one of MIBR’s favorite maps in recent months, but the former Extra Salt core showed that they like that map before the team disassembled, and coL kept things close against Gambit in January on that map, 11-16, so MIBR don’t really have a go-to map in this spot. We still have so much to learn about these new rosters and their map preferences, but for now, it appears that neither team has too much of an edge in terms of the maps, which makes me think that this could be a close series.  On Draftkings, I don’t feel great about stacking either of these teams, though there are some plays that I like. 

  • When Extra Salt faced MIBR on Overpass in November 2021, floppy was the highest rated player with a 1.42 Rating, while Tuurtle managed a 1.34 Rating despite the loss.
  • On Ancient, floppy led his team with 34 kills and a 1.75 Rating against Gambit in an 11-16 loss. Exit leads MIBR with a 1.55 K/D ratio on Ancient in the past three months.
  • On Nuke, floppy leads this roster with a 0.95 K/D ratio, while Grim leads with a 1.02 Rating across three maps played. Exit leads MIBR with a 1.53 K/D ratio on Nuke, while JOTA leads with a 1.36 Rating across six maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

exit ($7,600) | floppy ($8,000) | JOTA ($5,400) | Tuurtle ($6,600) | Grim ($4,800) | WOOD7 ($4,200) | FaNg ($6,800)

 

Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Liquid (World rank: #56) - 10:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Natus Vincere (-550) | Liquid (+400) 

Map Handicap: Natus Vincere -1.5 (-140) | Liquid +1.5 (+115)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+165) | Under 2.5 (-200)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the knockout stage round one of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The losing team is eliminated and will play in the Spring Showdown.
  • Natus Vincere - Rating at event: electronic 1.07 | b1t 1.04 | s1mple 0.99 | Perfecto 0.98 | Boombl4 0.83
  • Natus Vincere - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.40 | electronic 1.21 | b1t 1.17 | Perfecto 1.01 | Boombl4 1.01
  • Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.26 | EliGE 1.14 | oSee 1.13 | shox 0.78 | nitr0 0.74
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: oSee 1.25 | NAF 1.13 | EliGE 1.05 | shox 0.98 | nitr0 0.74

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in December at the BLAST Premier World Final 2021 when Liquid won 2-1 in the upper bracket (16-11 Overpass / 7-16 Dust2 / 16-7 Inferno), but NAVI got the last laugh in the lower bracket with a 2-0 sweep in the rematch (16-10 Dust2 / 16-11 Inferno).

Map Projections:

Natus Vincere removes Vertigo

Liquid removes Ancient

Natus Vincere picks Dust2

Liquid picks Overpass

Natus Vincere removes Inferno

Liquid removes Nuke

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.

The fact that NAVI is even playing on Thursday is a bit of a headscratcher. They played poorly during the group stage with losses to MIBR & Astralis, but those were best-of-ones, which typically means any upset is possible. This isn’t the first time that NAVI was ‘sleepwalking’ during the opening stages of a tournament, and the best team in the world usually locks in after losing in such fashion, especially since this is now a single elimination bracket to earn a spot at the Spring Final. S1mple took over with 55 kills and a 1.56 Rating across two maps last time against Liquid, and the best player in the world usually seems to take his game to another level against North American opponents, especially his former team, Liquid. We still haven’t seen much from Liquid’s new lineup. They have played Inferno three times, and each time it went to overtime, with a win over Evil Geniuses and two losses to FaZe. We know that NAF, EliGE and oSee all bring plenty of firepower to the team, but shox and nitr0 will need to adjust their way into the lineup, particularly nitr0, who was most recently playing VALORANT instead of CS:GO prior to joining Liquid again. Overall, I am not concerned about NAVI’s performance during the group stage, and they should go back to dominating now that we are in the best-of-three format with elimination on the line. 

NAVI’s best map is still Nuke, but they often pick Dust2 against North American teams like Liquid, which is a map where superior aim wins out. NAVI only dropped one CT round against Liquid last time on Dust2, and I’d expect them to be heavy favorites on it if they pick it in this spot. Liquid’s best option for a map pick would likely be either Overpass or Inferno. Their Inferno has looked solid despite their losing record at 1-2, but Overpass has historically been one of their best maps, and NAVI don’t play it very often, so it would probably be a better option for them than Inferno. Either way, the map pool should heavily favor NAVI, and I expect NAVI to win this in two maps. NAVI is the priority target for me on Draftkings with s1mple and b1t looking like excellent plays.  

  • On Dust2, b1t leads his team with a 1.37 K/D ratio while s1mple leads with a 1.25 Rating across six maps played in the past three months.
  • On Overpass, s1mple leads his team with a 1.66 K/D ratio and 1.41 Rating across 3 maps played in the past three months.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

s1mple ($10,200) | b1t ($8,400) | Perfecto ($6,200) | electronic ($9,800) | EliGE ($5,200) | oSee ($7,200) | Boombl4 ($7,000) 

 

BIG (World rank: #14) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #101) - 12:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-185) | Evil Geniuses (+150)

Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+160) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-195)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the knockout stage round one of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022. The losing team is eliminated and will play in the Spring Showdown.
  • BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.14 | faveN 1.09 | tabseN 1.08 | tiziaN 1.02 | k1to 0.93
  • BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.21 | tabseN 1.11 | syrsoN 1.09 | k1to 1.00 | tiziaN 0.91
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: RUSH 1.00 | CeRq 0.95 | Brehze 0.84 | automatic 0.73 | Stewie2K 0.73
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: CeRq 0.95 | Stewie2K 0.94 | Brehze 0.93 | RUSH 0.89 | automatic 0.73

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in August at ESL Pro League S14, when BIG swept EG 2-0 (16-9 Nuke / 16-8 Dust2). Both teams have made changes to their lineup since, plus EG had their coach, daps, standing in at the time.

Map Projections:

BIG removes Ancient

Evil Geniuses removes Nuke

BIG picks Dust2

Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

BIG removes Vertigo

Evil Geniuses removes Overpass 

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: BIG wins 2-1.

BIG won their first two series with faveN in the lineup against Fnatic & K23, but they have struggled since. However, they’ve been playing some tough competition including Gambit, Entropiq and Ninjas in Pyjamas. Their new lineup likely still hasn’t reached it’s full potential, but faveN is a clear upgrade over gade in terms of firepower, and I think the German roster is a much better team than the North Americans on the other side of the server. Evil Geniuses have even less experience playing with their lineup considering this unit has only played two maps together. They are 0-2 so far, including a 3-16 spanking from Vitality on Inferno, and the identity of this team is unclear. They have plenty of experienced players on their team, but where is the firepower? RUSH is somehow the highest rated player on this team at the event, which is not a good sign considering he plays support. Brehze has fallen off a cliff in terms of his fragging in the past year, averaging a 0.93 Rating and 0.64 kills per round in the past three months. CeRq has been unable to find impact with the AWP with only 0.60 kills per round in the past three months. Autimatic has not had a friendly ‘welcome back’ to CS:GO with his 0.73 Rating and 0.45 kills per round across two maps played so far. And finally, Stewie2K is tied with autimatic as the lowest rated player on EG across those two maps with a 0.73 Rating. There is potential with this EG lineup, but I still don’t think that they have enough firepower to be elite, even against a team like BIG, that is not known for having overwhelming firepower.

Both of these teams don’t want to play Ancient, though I expect BIG to ban it to start. EG could remove BIG’s favorite map, Dust2, in that scenario, but I still think that they would rather ban Nuke and try their luck on Dust2, where they have the experience, and they would have the opportunity to pull the upset if they can hit some shots. BIG have continued their excellence on Dust2 with faveN in the lineup with a 2-1 W/L record, including a dominant 89.2% 5v4 conversion rate during that time. If BIG are able to pick Dust2, then I would consider them to be a heavy favorite. Evil Geniuses do not have an identity as a team, and as such, they don’t have a go-to map outside of maybe Inferno. BIG aren’t the greatest on Inferno historically, so I could see EG winning that map, but I still think the map pool should be well in the favor of BIG. I have BIG winning this in three maps, if not two, and they would be my priority on Draftkings, particularly syrsoN, who seems way too cheap at $6,800.

  • On Dust2, syrsoN leads this lineup with a 1.39 K/D ratio and 1.33 Rating across three maps played.
  • BIG have not played Inferno with faveN in the lineup, but in the past three months, tabseN leads the team with a 1.10 K/D ratio and 1.12 Rating.
  • On Mirage, syrsoN leads this lineup with a 1.05 K/D ratio, while tabseN leads with a 1.06 Rating.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

syrsoN ($6,800) | tabseN ($8,200) | faveN ($9,400) | k1to ($6,000) | Brehze ($6,600) | autimatic ($4,400)

 

*Favorite Stacks: NAVI, BIG

*Preferred Captains: s1mple, b1t, tabseN, exit, electronic, faveN, floppy

*Top Value Options: syrsoN, Perfecto, JOTA, k1to, Tuurtle, Grim, WOOD7, FaNg