Entropiq (World rank: #10) vs. Renegades (World rank: #63) - 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Entropiq (-335) | Renegades (+260)
Map Handicap: Entropiq -1.5 (+105) | Renegades +1.5 (-125)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-165)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket round one of the IEM Katowice 2022 Play-In tournament.
- Entropiq - Rating at event: El1an 1.14 | Forester 1.08 | NickelBack 0.86 | Lack1 0.86 | Krad 0.65
- Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.16 | Forester 1.15 | Krad 1.03 | NickelBack 1.01 | Lack1 1.01
- Renegades - Rating at event: Liazz 1.21 | Sico 1.13 | aliStair 1.00 | Hatz 0.97 | INS 0.80
- Renegades - Rating past three months: Liazz 1.21 | INS 1.06 | aliStair 0.97 | Hatz 0.93 | Sico 0.82
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Renegades removes Ancient
Entropiq removes Inferno
Renegades picks Nuke
Entropiq picks Overpass
Renegades removes Mirage
Entropiq removes Dust2
Vertigo is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Entropiq wins 2-0.
Entropiq lost 9-16 to ENCE in their opening best-of-one, while Renegades fell to OG in overtime, 16-19, so you could argue that Renegades looked slightly better through day one of the event. Renegades announced that Liazz would be replacing malta just last week, and the former-EXTREMUM member has already proved his worth, leading the server with 28 kills and a 1.21 Rating on Mirage against OG. The Oceanic team is certainly capable of pulling upsets in this tournament, but we probably can’t expect too much from them given the recent roster change, and Liazz will likely cool off considering he had a 0.97 Rating across 110 maps played in 2021. Entropiq are the surefire favorite here, and this comes down to whether it will take them two or three maps to win in my opinion.
Renegades will likely ban Ancient, which has been Entropiq’s favorite map as of late. However, there are still plenty of strong options for Entropiq here, like Overpass where they have a 10-5 W/L record in the past three months. Meanwhile, Renegades have not played that map since October 2021. Renegades’ favorite map has been Inferno, but we can expect to see Entropiq ban that map at the start. Thus, Renegades will need to go for a secondary option, like Nuke. However, I can’t find a single map that Renegades would have much of a chance on including Nuke, besides maybe Dust2 just because Entropiq have had poor results there lately. I’m expecting a 2-0 sweep for Entropiq as they should be able to handle Renegades with ease.
- On Nuke, Forester leads Entropiq with a 1.22 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating across 12 maps played in the past three months.
- On Overpass, Forester leads Entropiq with a 1.20 K/D ratio, while El1an leads with a 1.19 Rating across 15 maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Forester ($8,800) | El1an ($9,400) | Krad ($7,400) | NickelBack ($5,800) | Lack1 ($6,600) | aliStair ($6,000)
Movistar Riders (World rank: #27) vs. MIBR (World rank: #36) - 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Movistar Riders (-175) | MIBR (+145)
Map Handicap: Movistar Riders -1.5 (+170) | MIBR +1.5 (-210)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket round one of the IEM Katowice 2022 Play-In tournament.
- Movistar Riders - Rating at event: SunPayus 1.12 | alex 1.10 | dav1g 0.88 | DeathZz 0.83 | mopoz 0.70
- Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.12 | alex 1.09 | mopoz 1.02 | DeathZz 0.99 | dav1g 0.92
- MIBR - Rating at event: JOTA 0.98 | exit 0.89 | rnz4n 0.89 | Tuurtle 0.71 | WOOD7 0.70
- MIBR - Rating past three months: exit 1.18 | JOTA 1.11 | Tuurtle 1.09 | brnz4n 1.08 | WOOD7 1.01
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
MIBR removes Mirage
Movistar Riders removes Dust2
MIBR picks Ancient
Movistar Riders picks Vertigo
MIBR removes Overpass
Movistar Riders removes Inferno
Nuke is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Movistar Riders win 2-1.
Movistar Riders were able to attend this event after Complexity dropped out due to multiple positive COVID test results, and I expect the Spanish team to make the most out of this opportunity. MIBR are still without chelo because they decided to stick with brnz4n in the lineup since he has been training with the team. This new MIBR roster has already made some noise with a best-of-one win over NAVI and a best-of-three win against Complexity, so they are capable underdogs. Both teams fell flat in their opening best-of-one of this event on Nuke with MIBR only managing two T rounds against Astralis, meanwhile Movistar couldn’t close out a 13-12 lead against BIG. Movistar Riders have been inconsistent in recent months, but they have proven themselves in the past on LAN, like at IEM Fall 2021 Europe, where they finished 5th ahead of teams such as G2, Heroic, FaZe, OG, BIG and Copenhagen Flames. I think that Movistar Riders are the better team and should win out here.
Movistar Riders haven’t recorded a win on Ancient in the past three months with a 0-2 W/L record, so MIBR’s go-to map might net the Brazilians a win here. However, MIBR’s T side on Ancient has been awful with this lineup with a 20% T round win rate across three maps played, and their 4v5 conversion rate was only 9.1% during that time. Thus, Movistar Riders have a chance on that map, especially since they would be starting on the favorable CT side. Movistar Riders were dominant on Nuke & Vertigo in 2021 with a 20-6 W/L record on Nuke and an 18-10 W/L record on Vertigo. I think that both maps will make it into the pool here, which could set-up nicely for Movistar Riders. Thus, the map pool should be well in their favor.
- On Ancient, SunPayus led Movistar Riders with a 1.23 K/D ratio and 1.16 Rating across nine maps played in 2021.
- On Vertigo, SunPayus led Movistar Riders with a 1.29 K/D ratio and 1.17 Rating across 28 maps played in 2021.
- On Nuke, SunPayus led Movistar Riders with a 1.28 K/D ratio and 1.21 Rating across 26 maps played in 2021.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
SunPayus ($9,000) | mopoz ($7,000) | alex ($8,000) | Tuurtle ($6,400) | DeathZz ($6,200) | JOTA ($7,200) | exit ($7,800)
BIG (World rank: #12) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #15) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (-120) | Fnatic (Even)
Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+240) | Fnatic +1.5 (-305)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket round two of the IEM Katowice 2022 Play-In tournament. The winner will earn a spot in the IEM Katowice group stage.
- BIG - Rating at event: faveN 1.14 | tabseN 1.10 | syrsoN 1.00 | tiziaN 0.98 | k1to 0.95
- BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.18 | syrsoN 1.14 | tabseN 1.09 | k1to 0.99 | tiziaN 0.93
- Fnatic - Rating at event: KRIMZ 1.17 | mezii 1.17 | Brollan 1.10 | smooya 1.06 | ALEX 0.72
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.12 | smooya 1.08 | Brollan 1.06 | KRIMZ 1.01 | ALEX 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced online in January 2022 and BIG won 2-1 (16-7 Overpass / 17-19 Mirage / 16-12 Nuke). SyrsoN topped the leaderboards with a 1.20 Rating, while tabseN had the most kills (68) across three maps played.
Map Projections:
Fnatic removes Dust2
BIG removes Inferno
Fnatic picks Nuke
BIG picks Mirage
Fnatic removes Vertigo
BIG removes Ancient
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Fnatic wins 2-1.
Both teams have had mixed results at this tournament and they each have a 1.04 Team Rating so far. Fnatic lost their opening best-of-one against Copenhagen Flames, who are the highest rated team at the event to this point, but they asserted dominance over Wisla Krakow in a 2-0 sweep that included a 16-4 win on Nuke. BIG managed to scrape by Movistar Riders, 16-13 on Nuke, but they couldn’t beat Astralis for the third time this month in a best-of-three. Fnatic were (-195) moneyline favorites when these teams last met in January, and they were on fire at the time having won 34 out of 42 maps played with their lineup. However, that was the first series that BIG played with faveN in the lineup, and the German lineup seems to be getting better with each map played. Fnatic were the 12th ranked team in the world at the time and BIG were 15th ranked, but those rankings have since flip-flopped. Thus, it makes some sense that BIG are now favored, especially since BIG won the series last time. Still, I like Fnatic to win the rematch here in a close series, and my preference is to take the value on Draftkings with Fnatic as a slight underdog.
Fnatic will likely ban BIG’s favorite map, Dust2, to start. Dust2 is BIG’s most played map, and they have been dominant with a 6-2 W/L record, so I never feel great about backing the Germans in a best-of-three format when that map is out of the pool. BIG will likely ban Inferno again, which takes away a strong option from Fnatic as that is their most played map with a 10-4 W/L record, so both map bans should have quite an effect on the map pool. Fnatic’s best map recently has been Nuke, where they have a 6-1 W/L record and 80.4% 5v4 conversion rate in the past three months, though the only loss came against BIG. Fnatic’s Nuke T side has been solid with a 51.6% win rate during that time, so they should feel confident picking the map here and giving BIG CT side to start. BIG picked Mirage last time, but Fnatic beat them in overtime on that map. The Germans have a 1-3 W/L record on Mirage with their lineup, so there doesn’t appear to be a strong secondary map option for them. Overall, the map pool is pretty split here and I expect to see three maps, but I give Fnatic an edge in a best-of-three with Dust2 out of the way, especially if they pick Nuke where I like them to beat BIG in the rematch.
- On Nuke, smooya leads Fnatic with a 1.33 K/D ratio, while Brollan leads with a 1.23 Rating across nine maps played with this lineup.
- On Mirage, smooya leads Fnatic with a 1.25 K/D ratio, while Brollan leads with a 1.20 Rating across eight maps played with this lineup.
- On Overpass, smooya leads Fnatic with a 1.32 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating across 12 maps played with this lineup.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
smooya ($7,400) | Brollan ($6,600) | mezii ($8,400) | syrsoN ($7,600) | KRIMZ ($6,000) | tabseN ($6,800) | faveN ($8,600)
ENCE (World rank: #23) vs. GODSENT (World rank: #13) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-135) | GODSENT (+110)
Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (+230) | GODSENT +1.5 (-295)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-105)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the lower bracket round two of the IEM Katowice 2022 Play-In tournament. The winner will earn a spot in the IEM Katowice group stage.
- ENCE - Rating at event: Spinx 1.12 | dycha 1.07 | hades 1.00 | Snappi 0.89 | Maden 0.83
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.06 | dycha 1.03 | hades 0.94 | Snappi 0.85 | Maden 0.82
- GODSENT - Rating at event: dumau 1.16 | latto 1.13 | felps 1.11 | b4rtiN 0.97 | TACO 0.91
- GODSENT - Rating past three months: felps 1.07 | dumau 1.04 | latto 1.00 | b4rtiN 0.94 | TACO 0.86
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did play in a best-of-one at PGL Major Stockholm in October when doto was still on ENCE instead of Maden, and ENCE won 16-10 on Nuke. Snappi was the top performer with 25 kills and a 1.46 Rating.
Map Projections:
GODSENT removes Dust2
ENCE removes Inferno
GODSENT picks Mirage
ENCE picks Nuke
GODSENT removes Overpass
ENCE removes Vertigo
Ancient is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-0.
GODSENT have a slightly higher Team Rating than ENCE at this event at 1.06, but I’d argue that ENCE have looked more impressive with a 16-9 win over Entropiq on Overpass, and a best-of-three loss against a red hot OG team. Meanwhile, GODSENT lost 8-16 against MOUZ on Nuke, and both maps were fairly close in their best-of-three win against Sprout, who are one of the weakest teams at this event. Maden joined ENCE in January after standing in at IEM Winter in December, and he should bring extra firepower to this team, though that has not really come to fruition yet in his short time with the team.
ENCE have a strong map pool, particularly with Nuke, where they have a 15-9 W/L record in the past three months, including a 16-4 win over Astralis. GODSENT have played a lot of Nuke, but they have a losing record on that map during the same time span. I don’t see GODSENT having much, if any, of an edge on any map, though their Mirage has been solid as of late. Overall, I think ENCE are capable of pulling the sweep here, and I expect them to keep improving with Maden in the lineup over time.
- On Mirage, Spinx led ENCE with a 1.35 K/D ratio and 1.26 Rating across 20 maps played in 2021.
- On Nuke, hades led ENCE with a 1.22 K/D ratio and 1.15 Rating across 36 maps played in 2021.
- Maden had a 1.09 Rating on both Mirage & Nuke in 2021 across 30 total maps played with FunPlus Phoenix. He has too much potential firepower to only be $5,000 on Draftkings, though he is in a new role with ENCE.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Maden ($5,000) | hades ($7,000) | Spinx ($8,600) | dycha ($7,800) | dumau ($7,200) | felps ($8,200)